Jesse

Really nice to see the GFS OP trending colder in the home stretch. I bet the ensembles are colder yet.

I never really specified what part of February. Just Februaries that are cold overall. 1989 and 1956 are two obvious examples that come to mind. 2009 and 2011 are two more recent examples.

It seems like chilly Februaries and Marches often come in pairs.

06z operational is an outlier. The ensembles are much colder.

Sounds like the cold isn't making it far enough south...

So much to worry about. So little time. Do you ever see your family?

How did PDX hit 51 after 4pm today?

Nailed it.

The 12Z EURO was crazy cold. Solid ensemble support for this too. The ensemble mean looks almost identical to the operational run through day 6.

I am pretty concerned that 99% of the public might find tonight's 00Z GFS VERY uninteresting.

Yeah, most people now refer to it as "that time it snowed a lot around Christmas a few years back".

Exactly. The general public probably finds the Justin Bieber saga to be more interesting than any weather event. Does that mean we should hope this event features more Bieber, thus making it more memorable in the eyes of the public? The answer is yes!

Just got back from my hike and checked out the 18z. Kind of a bummer, until I saw the 12z runs and the ensembles.

Going on a hike today. Hope the models keep up the awesomeness!

Yup. I am talking about the period of record for PDX and SEA, though.

Justin would know a lot better than I, but I think PDX didn't have a ton of snow on the ground in February '89. They fared better down the valley.

I think the infatuation with February 5th as a cutoff for major cold in the western lowlands has more to do with of a quirk of climatological history than anything. It just so happens that PDX and SEA both have major cold waves dominating their records up to 2/5 (Early Feb 1950 and Feb 1989). Nothing really exciting has happened in the time frame from 2/5 to 2/14 in the last 70+ years. So PDX's and SEA's records show a huge, inflated rise in record lows after 2/5. After this event, our records in the 2/1 to 2/10 period may be a lot more uniform looking. That huge post 2/5 rise will be mitigated quite a bit, in a way that better reflects our climatological capabilities for the first half of February as a whole.

PDX saw a high in the teens on 2/3/89. This cold wave looks like it will bottom out on 2/6/14. Do three days really make that big of a difference with regard to sun angle? Obviously February '89 was colder than this will be, but 850s around -15c and raging outflow would be able to keep PDX below 29 pretty handily, IMO.

I don't understand why you're focusing on the end of the event right now anyway. Lots of details that will likely change. There is a ton of ensemble spread starting the 9th.

Looks pretty good for out here.

The majority of the 06z ensembles are still colder than the operational. Becoming pretty clear this has the potential to be an historic event from a cold perspective. Happy February!

I agree. Awesome post Brennan!

Well I'm going to go to sleep with visions of the 00z GEM dancing in my head. Hope the models can just stay the course for the next few days.

There seems to be potential for this one to go colder at the moment.

Amazing 00z runs. This is looking like it could possibly be our coldest event in years at the 850mb level.