Clinton

It would make for a wild Chiefs game for me Thursday night!

I agree 100%. I think it will be one that we remember for a long time.

12Z GFS has next week modeled pretty decent as we return to the Nov 6th-11th part of the pattern that gave me my first 2 accumulating snows of the season.

Just a light dusting here, but about 30miles to my NE got 2in. I'm liking the looks for a big one next weekend for the forum.

Thanks! Next Thursday has a chance to deliver for ya. I'll probably get the salt washed off my streets.

The CMC is starting to trend north on the Saturday system, I hope this trend continues.

Getting a surprise band of snow this morning. I have a light dusting on the ground and hopefully it's a good sign for Saturday.

You should start a thread for your artificially produced snow!

Lets see if this shifts North over the next few days. The LRC would suggest a further North solution, with snow falling through EC Kansas, mid Missouri, and C Illinois.

He has strongly indicated that he believes it is 54 days, but is saying it is still in question.

This is a system that I have been looking forward to seeing. I think it has a good chance to produce a major snow in my area, it will most likely stay south of you. However the following week we should have 2 large storms that are 2 of the signature systems in this years LRC. The second of the 2 systems should be a cut-off low. With most of the forum receiving some love. Look out around the 14th-16th!

He has recently said that there is a transition phase in the pattern that most likely begins in late August and Sept. The pattern doesn't go old/new over night, in Sept there is the old pattern still cycling and some of the new features developing for the new patteren. By the first week of Oct the new pattern is cycling with no influence from the old pattern. I hope this make since.

Tom, you may be right but when I look at the 500mb level I come up with a shorter cycle. I believe the pattern began to change or mix in back in Sept. I believe it may be around 34-38 days with an average cycle of 36 days. Compare these 3 maps https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_180919_12.gif https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_181023_12.gif https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_181130_00.gif

Looks like it gets ate by the first wave.

KC looks to se a record for cold. morning! Our November has been cold. Still 2 day to go but, if we Keep w/the trend for 2 days this Could be the coldest Nov all-time ! ! !pic.twitter.com/jf7abkYH5e 1 reply 24 retweets 20 likes Reply1 Retweet24 Retweeted24 Like20 Liked20

Right on schedule.

If that low becomes as strong as what the NAM is advertising it may absorb the second storm, and then spin over Iowa for awhile.

I am worried that my storm Monday night may not have enough moisture, but that hasn't been a problem so far.

I think the NAM is on the right track. This storm in this part of the cycle should produce for Nebraska and the Northern half of Iowa.

Past Sat. the models are all jacked up. Punt on these and try again tomorrow.

Your NWS office makes me appreciate how good mine is. WOW!

Unfortunately Gary isn't publicly confirming the cycle length for us right now. There seems to be an issue with another meteorologist in Joplin, MO that is using his theory and claiming it as his own. Tom your maps show a great point and very well may be right. It is very possible that I picked up on a harmonic and the actual cycle length is much longer. There are so many storms this year it can be quite confusing.

Good morning folks, the 6z FV3-GFS seems to have a good grasp of this very short LRC (36 to 38 days) at least through Tuesday. Look out for a very strong storm late next week moving out of Texas over the top of a deep artic air mass that we will all be locked into(the return of the central plains trough). Models have had hints of this but have not locked on to this idea yet, but it should be a dominate feature in this years cycle.

It was insane, the wind is still gusting to 35mph.

Storm will be wrapping up for me in the next hour or 2. KCI (MCI) is closed.