Clinton

12z NAM further south looks good!

Happy Thanksgiving to all of you here! Please be safe this weekend.

Thats the run I have been hoping for, the ICON gives me a mini blizzard.

I think more in the line of 36 day cycle.

I believe we are in cycle 2. Seems to be a very short cycle this year.

The ICON very much resembles the Oct version of this system. My hope is with the jet stream being stronger and some blocking being present that this system will slow down and be a bit stronger.

The LRC would suggest a slower and more southern track. The blocking should be strong enough to cause the storm to dig and generate more cold air. This is one of the storms I picked out to produce at least several inches for me. Also be on the look out for a bomb to follow about 6 days later.

Will that low cut-off like it did in early Oct? Could be the start of cycle 2, Some believe this last cut-off low was the start of cycle 2.

I feel like this has a good chance to pan out for you. These types of systems have been over producing this season.

That has been the trend with systems all year, great change from last year.

Tom, great write up and I enjoy reading your thoughts on winter, and I think you have nailed this years pattern. I completely agree with your take on the cold, I have had only 1 day since Oct 6 with above normal temps. Snow on top of snow is a little rare in my neck of the woods but I have a good feeling that all of us will see that this year. I am excited to see what we all have coming our way the next several months!

Lezak released this as part of his Winter Forecast . http://weatherblog.kshb.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/116-640x360.png

Great write up by the NWS in KC. "If the snow seemed like it came early this year, you are right. Not only did we have the first measurable snowfall on record for KC on Oct 14th, but there has only been 3 years in KC's 131 year history that we have had 3 measurable snowfall events by 11/12... 1898, 1992, and now 2018! How much snow did those years bring? The cold season of 1898-1899 had 38.6" (The 6th snowiest on record) The cold season of 1992-1993 had 34.3" (11th snowiest on record) Normal for KC is 18.8"

Just measured 2in I think I have a shot at 2 more before the day is over. Canadian model advertising some light snow here on Sunday.

If it's a 45 day cycle than Christmas week should be white for the entire forum.

Good morning, getting ready for my 2nd accumulating snow of the season. 2 to 4 inches expected for my area, what a different Nov from the last few. This has been one of the coldest and wettest Nov that I can remember.

The wind is brutal! On our way down to a record low of 14, old record 19.

Tree damage was a problem here, it was the only negative to a beautiful snow.

KC got a dusting to 2 inches. I got 4 inches at my house, I am about an hour east of KC. It was my biggest snow in 3 years! If we could have been 2 or 3 degrees colder it would have really piled up. I'm excited for this system in future cycles.

Just had my first flakes of the season, about 2 inches is forecasted here. Hope its a sign of a active winter.

This has to be a good sign for winter if we can get an accumulating snow in early Nov. in the KC area.

If that storm pans out, it would be more snow than I have had the last 2 years combined.

No it's free

The NAM has been almost spot on for me down here, which has me worried because it shows nearly a half in of ice tonight and tomorrow. Also it continues to trend cooler for Friday. Hope you get some snow as the NAM suggest you will.

Just under a 1/2in. I am about an hour SE of KC