ShawniganLake

Keep calm and chive on.

Well then I'm sold. Throw the old one in the trash. It's gonna cold and snow Christmas through New Years.

Has this been an ongoing theme, or are we just jumping on its bandwagon because it's showing what we want to see. Weren't the other models playing catchup with the gfs last week with the windstorm. Seems sensible to be pretty cautiously optimistic at this point.

Is there any/ enough data to show the new gfs had superiority over the older one.

The Canadian this morning is a big improvement over the 0z for the 8-10 day period. Pumps the ridge up into Alaska.

Euro ensemble looks encouraging. -8C 850 temps approaching the SW BC coast http://download.ecmwf.org/data/web249/get_legacy_plot-web249-20141216082753-28079-0767.gif

http://www.mountwashington.ca/webcams/tubepark/full1.jpg Snowy night at mount Washington ski resort here on Vancouver Island. They need it. Click on the picture or link if you want to watch it snow in realtime. http://www.mountwashington.ca/winter/snow-tubing.html

41/28 here today.

Latest tweet from Brett Anderson.

Mark posted the wrong maps. Take a second look. Not bad at all. Big time ridging through the Aleutians and western Alaska, Christmas through New years.

The ridge axis is offshore. Looks chilly on Christmas morning to me. That isn't a torch. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_12z/f240.gif

I wouldn't call the long range GEM garbage. Pattern progression looks okay at days 8-10. Lacks amplification though. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

A sporadic 60, maybe a 65, would seem like a reasonable expectation.

Looks like you are reading it okay to me. The conservative approach is probably to way to go.

Realism. Winds aren't going to gust to 75mph in Portland as the wrf and yourself have suggested.

I think the chances for January have been good for some time, regardless of the warmth the past couple of days. When it comes to talking about payback, how do we know that the warmth this week isn't payback for the cold last week? Or the warmth this summer wasn't payback for the cold summers of a few years ago. It seems like an impossible thing to put a time stamp on.

Of course he does. He is a pretty knowledgeable guy. Just a little guilty of wish casting from time to time, but he is an important part of the forum.

I know. Just double checked, and actually the Jan 8-11 period has a nice arctic outbreak. That's a relief. Also, It is showing a 6 day blizzard for the second half of February. Its hour 1800, so its not a lock yet, but its something to watch. http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/CFS_Model_2.html

Pretty much all the cold goes east of the Rockies through mid January. Hasn't looked good for the last few days at least. Jim will be unhappy.

Southern Vancouver island https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7BloAdmqwo

A link for anyone interested in this current storms impacts north of the border. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/b-c-flooding-risk-continues-as-3rd-storm-wallops-west-coast-1.2867042

Only 52F over here. We generally get much warmer with a SW wind, though.

Not up here. 53F max high for the month. 19 lows of 32 or below and 17.5" of snow. Pretty decent month actually. Mean temp came in at 37.6F

One heck of a rainstorm unfolding on central Vancouver Island. Looks to be unprecedented flooding in a few areas. From the BC river forecast centre: River levels on Vancouver Island and the Central Coast have risen substantially overnight and this morning. The Tsolum River near Courtenay (WSC 08HB011) is currently running at 278 m3/s (water level = 4.387 m), which is greater than the 100 year flow and has exceeded the maximum historical recorded flow (258 m3/s). The Oyster River below Woodhus Creek (08HD001) is currently running at 353 m3/s (water level = 2.982 m), which is greater than the 100 year flood and has exceeded the maximum historical recorded flow (260 m3/s). Environment Canada forecasts additional rainfall in the range from 30 mm to 50 mm for the region. Flows and water levels are expected to continue to rise tonight through tomorrow (December 10, 2014) at noon.

We moved into our house in January. This summer we had three trees removed from our backyard that would be within striking distance. Good decision, as it turned out 2 of them had termites. Obviously there are situations that you cant control, however, depending on the size of your property. You cant always go cutting down every tree in the neighborhood.