Sciascia

With the snow from Tuesday & Wednesday night still on the ground/deck (plus the wind), can’t really tell how much I’ve got here in Poplar Grove. Disappointingly in the dry slot, currently.

LOT P&C for Poplar Grove is 7-15 potential inches. Gonna be fun to see what unfolds.

One of LOT’s several morning graphics. 4th quadrant represent! As a guy that works 2pm - 10pm, having the heaviest portion occur when I’m supposed to drive to work and the blowing snow portion when I’m supposed to drive back home makes me consider burning a vacation day.

And heavy snow continuing at the end of the run.

This storm is close enough to have the low pop up on the HRRR. Here it is at 48hrs vs. the new NAM:

Kuchera map of the last 13 GFS runs, ending 6am Wednesday morning.

Not sure what’s more unbelievable: The 0z GFS painting 30+ inches at ORD in the next 192hrs, or the 0z and the 6z GFS painting 30 inches there in back to back runs.

Word has it (from Fox Chicago’s Mike Caplan) that a special mission was done to collect sampling from this system even though it’s not yet on shore. Data was supposed to start appearing in the 00z suite.

HRRR has been slowly tapping NW with the snow swath in recent runs. 12z had 0.9 inches at ORD at 4am Wednesday. The newest 17z has 3 inches at the same time.

NAM @ 30hrs

NAM coming in south of 6z with snow area, but fairly the same as 0z.

12z HRRR coming in with a more realistic (albeit less fun) scenario:

GFS has stopped the north baby stepping, which is slightly disappointing for someone in Boone County hoping to cash in on a double digit number. However, I am glad for those currently forecast for almost 2 feet.

Here’s a GIF of the GEFS ensembles from 6pm Tuesday to 12am Friday. Always kinda neat to see all the different scenarios.

Just imagine if Ensemble 10 were even close to verifying. Over 2 and a half feet of snow would shut down Chicago.