Kayla

Agreed. Definitely not depending on it but at the same time it is the most accurate long range operational model in the land so it shouldn't be discounted completely.

Ha, I sure hope I am! The weekly control run from yesterday showed a pretty nice block from December 13th - 23rd timeframe. Not the best looking block ever but we don't need that to see snow. Sometimes it's better so we can get more moisture into the area. The ensemble mean is also giving the area snowfall in that same timeframe. Maybe not quite arctic but good enough.

Euro weeklies are looking very promising. The control and ensemble mean look good for a warning shot beginning later next week through the end of the month. That is followed by ridging the first half of the December then at the very least modified arctic air floods the region around the 20th with plenty of valley snow for the region. Have to give huge props to Snow Wiz if this all becomes reality as I think this is the general progression of things that he has been forecasting for months now.

Yours, Andrew and my location would definitely see snow flying if this run were to verify. With that said, I'll believe it when I see it. Pretty rare to see snow that low with 850 temps of only -2c but it is forecasting some crazy precip rates to draw the cold air down. A lot of things will need to align for this to actually verify.

Amazing snow totals for the mountains showing up on the 12z ECMWF this morning. 4-7ft over the next 7-8 days up and down the Cascade range. Interesting thing to note - At face value this run shows snow levels dipping down to ~1000ft and even lower closer to the Gorge on Thanksgiving morning. A very strong cold front with heavy precip rates draws 850mb temps of around -2c all the way down to nearly the surface. Areas at or above 1000ft pick up 6-8" of snowfall in a 6 hour period Thanksgiving morning. Could be some tough traveling to Grandmothers house over the coast range, west hills or through the gorge! A little tweak here or there and we could have a region wide snowstorm on our hands. Definitely something to keep an eye on!

Pretty hilarious that people were calling for a December torch fest on the 2nd that year! Just another reminder how quick the models can change as we head into winter.

So much nervousness coming from this board these last few days! Many of you have already leaped off the ledge while meteorological winter is still 2 weeks away! I remind you what things looked like in the beginning of December 2008. Things were much more dire than the pattern that is on the horizon over the next 10 days. I'm with Snow Wiz on this one, things are aligning well for a mid December through January blast. 12z ECMWF continues the trend of moving more and more cold air over to this side of the globe. Very positive steps to seeing something great December through January. Patience everyone!

00z Euro seems a bit more promising at day 9 and 10. But the cold source is still not all that arctic and modifies quite a bit by the time it reaches us. Probably -4 to -5 850's at best in our area. Have to love the overall pattern and setup though.

The terrain is at or above 850mb or ~4,800ft MSL.

Similar setup being shown on the ECMWF at hour 240 as well. Lots of cold to very cold air in Northern BC sliding south on the 12z runs today. Definitely a promising sign for the end of the month and into the beginning of December.

Great to see -20 to -25 850mb temps popping up in Northern BC at day 10 on the Euro as well. Big step in the right direction.

Probably but it's at least nice to see that cold air just beyond the border. Hopefully the details will iron themselves out (in our favor) over the coming days. Give it time.

With snow!

12z ECMWF is looking very promising at day 10. Shows a lot of cold air in Canada posed to flood into the lower 48. White Thanksgiving is still on the table IMO.

Inter-hour 66! Another day, another new record high.

Just giving Jesse a hard time. Looks like the EPS won out again.

74 seems unlikely at PDX today...

Surprised no one has mentioned the Euro weeklies today. The November ~17th-24th period continues to be a timeframe to watch. Todays controlled run showed -10 to -15 850mb departures. Keeping in mind seasonal average 850mb temps in that same timeframe are right around zero. Not sure if we'll have that much cold air on this side of the globe to tap into by then but definitely bears watching.

Yeah...underachieving today. I think even 70 is going to be a stretch. With the trend today, I'm lowering my forecast for tomorrow at PDX to 66º.

Not really in the short term forecasts. Looks like even today is going to end up 2-4º below modeled forecasts. Doesn't bode well for tomorrows 74º... #itsnovember7th

You really thinking 73+ tomorrow?? Going to be hard pressed with pretty stale low levels. ECMWF and EPS only going for 66 and 67 respectfully tomorrow. 68.

It's November 3rd.

Bodes well for Black Friday...

It is. Just a little something of note as the control run is the most accurate EPS member and the pattern begins to set up in about ~20 days if verified.

Latest Euro weeklies show a pretty major cold wave for the west in the November 16th - 21st timeframe. Shows a pretty decent block with -10 to -15 850mb departures from SEA to LAX and a frigid Columbia Basin.