Kayla
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Everything posted by Kayla
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It will start to fill back in here within the next hour or so.
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Airport officially reported 1" of snowfall a couple of hours ago.
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1" of snow depth officially reported at PDX. About an 1.5" here in the West Hills and 24º with some decent drifts beginning to form around the yard.
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PDX NWS has had a busy day of playing catching up. Just upped the snowfall amounts for PDX metro to 2-4" now. This one had lots of potential written all over even a couple days ago but was poo pooed by many on here. Canadian and ECMWF are clear winners once again.
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Moderate snow here all morning and 22º. About 1" of snowfall so far. Going to be a cold day.
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I agree. Either way, looks to be a messy icy day tomorrow and probably an even worse back to work commute Monday morning with below freezing temps continuing.
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00z WRF-GFS specifically.
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Yet some scurry out the upper level cold air quicker than the others...
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I agree with this 100%. So I guess the question of the night is: What model is handling the dynamics of the incoming system best at this time?
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NAM seems like it wants to hold onto the cold air a little longer and is more bullish with the precip from what I can see?
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Don't want it to be wrong, and it is a great tool but just having a hard time believing it at face value, especially looking and comparing current conditions. It's literally been two steps behind at every update. I believe it's best to reference the most recent events to actuality. The WRF-GFS handled our last fake cold episode poorly in late November. Until it proves me wrong, safe to say it will be wrong again and is underestimating the depth and strength of the cold air.
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NAM, ECMWF and GEM and now even the GFS are showing higher precip amounts with the GFS saying that there will be a warming slot above freezing around the 800-900mb level. All others say it will stay cold enough to support all snow through the afternoon hours.
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Besides the ECMWF, NAM, GEM there is no evidence of snow so we'll just go with our trusty ol'friend the GFS and WRF. Cause it always does spectacular in these types of setups within 24 hours.
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Not to say I told you so but....
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That's why they pay me the big bucks... All joking aside, I saw it there as a possibility a couple days ago but this thing has definitely trended beyond even the hints of that. Already down to 22º dp 9º here in the West Hills. Going to take some time to moisten up the lower levels before we see anything here.
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But I thought it wasn't gonna snow???
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FWIW, 06z 2.5km Canadian shows 2-3" of snowfall for PDX metro on Sunday....
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Yeah...it's a tough call at this point, but we all know how terrible the models do in these types of setups.
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This is a very deep cold layer. No way a weak ULL erodes all this lower level cold air that quickly. Canadian did pretty well with our last inversion back over the Thanksgiving weekend and it seems to have a good handle on the low level temps for this upcoming week IMO.
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No way that ends up verifying...especially for down here.
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22º dp 11º in the West Hills with very gusty winds. I've been getting wind chill values in the low single digits all night and this morning. Be lucky to get out of the 20's today. Fair to say this is more than just "fake cold" at this point.
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At what level do you see this "warming layer"? This airmass is cold up and down and the models have been a step behind since this event started. 12z 4km NAM said all snow on Sunday, interested to see the rest of the 12z model suite says.
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Only topped out at 32º here and now already back down to 30º and dropping with a raging east wind all day. Dew point is now down to 14º! Cold pool has definitely taken over. Going to to a lot more than those weak systems Sunday and early next week to get this cold air scurried out at this point.
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Looks like 850 temps stay right around or below freezing so would likely be some very light snow falling. Didn't I mention this possibly occurring several days ago...
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Already down to 28º here with a dp of 15º and strong east winds continuing on the West Hills crest. Even with all the drizzle we had a couple of days ago we still have an 1" or so of snow on the ground and it is locked into place now. Glad we were able to salvage at least some of our snow cover going into this inversion (cold snap?).
