Kayla

First day above freezing here since the 22nd. Currently 36F.

Models are definitely looking a bit more promising for the week of Jan 7th-15th. At this point though I really don't care if we get some Arctic air or not, we just really need some snow in the area.

1 hour ago, Phil said:

I think you and Flatiron will be the first to score. Actually I think he’s already scored but will prob score again. Then maybe me?

Unless the +EPO stretch is marginally cold enough for someone like @Brian_in_Leavenworth to score a slush bomb beforehand.

What about me...?

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This run is interesting in the long range. 

Kind of the dream (unrealistic?) scenario... Arctic air pushing in along with the southern energy. Playing with fire.

12z GFS is continuing the idea of high latitude blocking in the long term and the first push of Arctic air into into the lower 48 this season. Question is, does the southern energy stay backed off?

8 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

we were 4/-10 and I thought that was nuts.  that's insane

I'm not sure if I spent more than a couple minutes outside that day to snap a couple pictures. Life threatening type of cold.

Warm enough for a nice run/hike here today, should be pushing 50º so about 75 degrees warmer today than this time last year!

-24F / -45F day one year ago today at BZN. Good enough for a -54 departure. Absolute Insanity. 

We sit elevated from the valley floor but still pulled off a -17F / -40F day.

4 minutes ago, Mercurial said:

Looks like Montana in June lol

Yep...only 6 months away!!

4 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Given I was a baby, I remember nothing of this event.

However, it was probably the most impressive Arctic event in Denver history. Four straight days with highs below zero, including a high of -8 on the day referenced above. 

That month was just insanely, record cold for much of the nation. Sioux Falls, SD (I believe our poster @hawkstwelve lives there now) had a monthly high temp of just 27 degrees, and an average temp of 2.1 degrees, over 17 degrees below normal.

Pretty wild that last years blast produced a -20F / -39F day in Bozeman. Good enough for a -29.5F mean temp. Coldest day on record by a whole 2 degrees. I'm still struggling to wrap my head around that. Something that even 1983, 1989 couldn't pull off.

Of course the duration of 1983 was next level.

5 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Took this pic coming back home from NB.  Driveways really look like it just rained despite being totally sunny for two days now.   Low sun angle and lack of east wind.   Roads are dry due to traffic but it is interesting how damp it stays at this time of year in the absence of any wind.  Also the grass is really green for late December.   Just barely touched the freezing point only a couple times this month.

So green!

12 minutes ago, Doinko said:

How much did you get Jan-Mar this year?

Bozeman saw another 57" of snowfall Jan-Mar of this year. My backyard saw 87" in that same period. 

2022 was the third snowiest year on record for Bozeman with 146" of snowfall in the city. 2023 should end up with about 80".

30 year snowfall average is up to 95" now.

16 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

I am at 2.5" so far. This will be my least snowy Oct-Dec since the non winter of 2014-2015. 

For strong El Ninos the only similar dry ones would be 1986-1987 and 1991-1992. 

I think that's what is pretty remarkable about this season so far. Seeing both Northwest AND California mountain regions doing so poorly. Only saving grace for the west coast is that they've seen plenty of rainfall with more to come.

Interior regions not so much!

Going to take a Christmas miracle to avoid seeing the least snowiest Nov-Dec on record here. Bozeman has only seen a whopping 2.2" snowfall (with 0.71" of precip) since Nov 1st. Just last year we had 54" in the same period. 

All-time record warm December also looks to be a lock along with the Nov-Dec period. I knew this winter was going to be bad but this has been downright ugly. We'll be right back into a severe drought soon if things do not turn around soon.

30 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Well since we are on the subject…My dad passed away peacefully last evening. Rough stuff but both my sister and I have an odd calmness over us, he battled so many health issues since the late 1980’s which escalated in the early 2000’s and then nailed him hardcore in early August…Knowing he is no longer in pain (pain that I’m sure many people will never experience) is very calming. Definitely the strongest person I will ever be around when it comes to battling every infection that tried to get him for so many years, but he battled on and tried his hardest to not have it effect his life too much. 

One of the last things we talked about on Saturday when he was still semi coherent at the hospital was the Christmas lights I put up on the house and I told him that he taught me everything I know about exterior illumination as I was showing him pictures of my lit up house.

I still remember being about 5 years old and helping him put up the Christmas lights, they were those big bulbed multi colored lights, it felt so magical helping him and seeing them light up the house knowing Santa was going to come now since he could see those bright lights! 
I always think of those times when I am putting up the lights that now my kids are helping me with!
 

Really sorry to hear. So great to hear that you are holding those memories close to you and that you can share that same love and kindness with your own children this holiday season.

2 hours ago, Mercurial said:

I think those stats are for FCA.  Correct me if im wrong.  Whitefish has a somewhat more favorable microclimate for snowpack despite being at the same elevation.  AFAIK the whitefish coop stopped recording data in 2013.  But yea probably just a couple inches in 2018 and 2020 with nothing in 2019.  

https://wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?mt8902

NWS says we have a white Christmas 92% of the time, with >95% for Seeley and West Glacier.

Yeah the data I referenced was from FCA. Even I have forgotten just how bad 2018-20 was in December. If it weren't for February/March 2019 it would have been a pretty brutal stretch.

It's definitely rare, hopefully the Saturday system saves us!

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Sunny and 52 in North Bend now.    Christmas Day into the 26th is starting to look like a very wet period for western WA with some AR action. 

Sorry to hear about your pup Tim. It's always so hard losing a pet that becomes part of the family but it sounds like he had an incredible life.

11 minutes ago, Mercurial said:

Raining

depending on how this weekend goes, this could be the first brown Christmas for places like WF, West Glacier, seeley lake, etc, in years.  Decades?

Snowless Christmas is not quite as uncommon as you might think in Whitefish. 2020, 2019, 2018 all saw an inch or less of snow on the ground on Christmas day. 2019 was completely snowless.

It's a lot more uncommon in Bozeman, its been 43 years since the last snowless Christmas. The little system moving in this weekend might save us from our first brown Christmas in Bozeman since 1980 (2004 came very close to being snowless as well).

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

I don’t see upslope induced precipitation now. I’m 190ft ASL on the downslope side, adiabatic warming/drying eviscerates precip long before it gets here absent a strong ULL. And even then it’s just flurries/squalls. None of the Great Lakes moisture makes it here.

In NW flow, it’ll often be in the teens with heavy snow 75-100 miles to the west, while it’s in the 40s and sunny/windy here.

I'm referring to that precip in WV looks upslope induced to me. Obviously you're getting downslope'd but without the Appalachians that area would also see a whole lot less precipitation develop was my point.

37 minutes ago, Phil said:

can we bulldoze the appalachians?  

Without them you wouldn't see upslope induced precipitation either.

5 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 6 (4-run trend) weak and transitory

At least it shows some actual precipitation for here on the 23rd. Been incredibly hard to come by since late October.

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

December 1983 had an incredible arctic airmass over most of the nation around the Holidays. I think Christmas 1983 or somewhere thereabouts was one of the coldest days in history for the lower 48 as a whole.

Ha yeah...sorry I meant 1980-81. That late Dec 1983 airmass was a beast!