Front Ranger

The last couple runs of the Euro keep things pretty chilly for you guys through the end of the year. Not "fake" cold, either.

All the models suck in guageing precip/snow potential in this sort of situation.

Looking closer at things, it appears there's two reasons some models are showing the South Sound doing better than the North Sound tonight: 1) heavier/more precip (the main reason), and 2) 850s are actually slightly colder south of Everett, I'm guessing due to the configuration of the low pulling warmer air into the North Sound. Will be interesting to see how things verify in the morning.

Peak heating. Heck, I've seen plenty of times here where it will be snowing between 11 am - 3 pm and be right around freezing, but nothing sticking. In a few hours, those bands will stick.

Yes, I know. My parents live there, at 700'. Valley floor elevation starts increasing substantially as you get south of Cottage Grove.

I think the fact that both models show accumulation in the same general area is a good sign. Temps will obviously be marginal again, but people are seeing snow in the heavier showers today, so wouldn't surprise me at all if heavier showers tonight bring the snow level down to 250' or so at times.

Yeah, looks like the models are expecting a pretty sharp cutoff for showers from the Olympic shadow.

Medford is under a Winter Weather Advisory until tomorrow at 4 pm. Anywhere in southern OR over 1,000' expected to pick up a few inches, but snow level could lower to the valley floor at times.

Got maps! Latest hi-res NAM favors the South Sound for a little snow tonight/tomorrow AM. Meanwhile, the latest HRRR also likes the lowlands of south King/north Pierce counties for tonight (Jim??).

I dunno, ensembles point to the +PNA persisting for awhile.

I don't think it's actually heading into the central U.S. Though it does look like the Midwest might finally get the first real Arctic air mass of the winter a couple days before that. The EPO and AO are both trending downwards. Unfortunately, the PNA is headed up.

The new Euro looks a bit more promising for some sort of overrunning event later on.

Them and their progressive patterns!

Looking over all the models, it continues to look like the NW interior has the best chance to see accumulating snow in the next 48 hours, in the area between Everett and Bellingham. And the best shot looks to be tomorrow night/Christmas morning. As usual, the issue will be getting precip once temps have cooled enough, and also as usual, the development of any CZs will be a huge factor. Any overrunning event down the road is looking tenuous at best, but still a lot of time for that to change, of course.

Lots of snow still on the ground here from the big storm a week ago, despite several days in the 40s and 50s since then. Gotta love December sun angle. Starting tomorrow, looks like it will be chilly around here for awhile.

The GEM has been the worst model lately.

You have it backwards. There's never been an Arctic blast which was not preceded by a weather event.

It looks to me like the only places likely to see accumulating snow tonight will be north and east of Seattle, with the further north you are, the better your chances.

Sadly, my parents are in CA and will miss it.

That's pretty silly.

Basically tomorrow night through Christmas morning. Anyhow, the Euro is coming in a little stronger and further west with the trough than the GFS, which is good to see. Wish I could see precip output.

0z Canadian also looked pretty good for snow in the northern half of the Puget Sound/far southern Canada. This is looking more and more like Puget Sound north event (at least initially)...though areas with a little elevation further south could do well.

Minor tweaks.

Some people are being a little harsh on Tim tonight. I don't say that often.

Dries out rapidly after that, though. Trough just doesn't carve out at all like some runs earlier today showed.