Front Ranger

0z GFS looks good for areas north of Seattle on Thursday.

NAM is pretty different than the other models.

Different snow models show varying snow amounts for the lowlands (which are more extensive than just right by the Sound), but I'm going mainly off the pattern, temps, and precip possibilities. The ultra-conservative Seattle NWS has even put in the possibilities of snow showers on Christmas Day, 4 days out.

Looks like several more lowland snow chances over the next 4-5 days. Models have definitely trended back colder in the near term.

Hey. A super marginal setup can still produce lowland snow. Nice to see.

You got wrapped up in the details of Nov 2003, simply because I mentioned that event. Missed the point. I'll leave it at that.

Yup. And as it happens, a time when a very marginal air mass produced lowland snow. It was a simple point. But Captain Nitpick was all over it.

Heavy deformation zone?

Not exactly. If you just read the comment I was originally responding to, that would help.

I actually like that about this area. We get a lot of t-storms and severe weather, but not a lot of severely damaging weather (most common is hail).

You're smart enough to understand what my point was. Not going to break it down for you.

You're missing the point. It wasn't that this setup is similar to Nov 2003.

If the Nov 2003 setup could produce lowland snow, I think this setup is more than capable. The air mass in place isn't cold, but it's chilly.

Makes sense. But from what I understand, you don't necessarily need a whole month of an Aleutian low battering the PV to break it down...couldn't a powerful Aleutian low cause some serious disruption to the PV in a shorter period of time?

Denver and Boulder are part of the same metro area. Boulder is about a 30 min drive from Denver. Albany is like 2.5 hours from NYC. Like I said, Boulder better reflects the west metro area than DEN. Not very many people live out near the airport...a ton of people live in the corridor from Boulder to Denver. I would say where I live (about 15 min from downtown Denver) I get about the average amount of snow for the Denver metro area. The past 9 winters, I've averaged 73". The least I've gotten is 38", the most 110". But again, my statement wasn't about seasonal snowfall, it was about the number of big snowstorms. Defined as 10"+. As far as major metro areas go (Denver metro has over 2.8 million people), you would be hard-pressed to find another place besides Boston that sees as many big snowstorms as we do. Now, it's true that we haven't seen as many HUGE, 2'+ storms as the Northeast has in recent years. There have only been two of those since I've lived here, though a couple others approached 2'.

The real key for the West will be displacing the Aleutian low, as that's what ruins the unfolding pattern next week. Eastern weenies would like to see the Aleutian low stay dominant, only with a -AO.

Yes, that certainly is a -EPO on the 384 hr GFS.

I said more big storms (10"+) than almost any other major metro area. I'm talking cities close to Denver's size or larger. Boston would probably be the only one to challenge or surpass the Denver metro area the past 10 years. Pretty sure NYC, Detroit, Chicago, Minneapolis, or Philadelphia have not seen more than 15 10"+ storms the past 9 winters. And I'm only counting ones where I personally saw 10"+...there have been several that dumped a foot or more in part of Denver metro, but I saw less than 10" (such as the one this November that dropped over 18" in the south metro). Again, keep in mind that you can't judge things based of DEN's totals. Boulder, which get more than me but reflects the western half of the Denver metro area better than DEN, has seen 100"+ seasonal totals 4 winters out of the last 10. Two of those topped 125". http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?co0848 Could be another coming late next week...

18z stronger with the low passing south of Seattle on Monday. Pattern still goes to crap in the mid range as the monster Aleutian low takes over.

The GFS/Euro have come to a compromised solution from what they were both showing 2-3 days ago. Not sure one or the other really led the way this time. There is still a decent shot at some lowland snow next week.

Yup. Not sure if it's been mentioned, but the pattern is rather progressive. With decent chances of lowland snow around Christmas. That being said, myself, Phil and others have said all along that the best chance for Arctic air and a potentially better pattern is probably January. Aside from 1972, Decembers during strong Ninos have almost never produced much in the way of Arctic air. But there can still be fun without true Arctic blasts.

I'm not sure I would agree with that. DEN's totals since about 2010 are pretty misleading (it was around that time they started measuring snowfall at the airport), since they tend to get quite a bit less than most of the metro area, being so far east and north. Just compare to Boulder and you'll see how wild the differences are. I've had 50"+ 8 out of 9 years here, and between 60-80" six of those years. That's pretty darn consistent.

I would say in the 9 years I've lived here, we've had snow on the ground about 50% of the time between Dec-Mar. In 2006-07, it was on the ground for 2 months straight. What I like about the winters here is that we see big snowstorms more consistently than almost any other major metro area. I've seen 15 storms of 10"+ in 9 years. 5 with 18"+.

I think you misunderstood. I said east side of the Rockies.

New Euro certainly looks like it has lowland snow.