Front Ranger

And you can believe what you want. Everyone has an opinion...

You stole my lame joke.

People could be nicer. But Richard is pretty vague in his projections of where cold air is moving, so I'm not sure how anyone could claim he's "incredibly accurate". Also, how do you know he doesn't look at models at all? Personally, I think you like the idea of Richard: the misunderstood genius who speaks in a code that only a patient few can decipher, deftly predicting the future far better than regular people who use regular "science".

Nope. Move to Canada!

I didn't realize you meant calendar year. That is looking very possible, though I think at least a couple lowlands people on here will see some before we sing Auld Lang Syne (do Canadians do that?).

But seriously...it's 12/10.

The model run designed by weenies, for weenies!

Yup, progressive pattern is the name of the game now. Models really began to move that way yesterday and today has continued it.

Several of the biggest Arctic events in modern PNW history happened without SSWs.

The 0z Canadian was definitely pretty funky after day 7, with the way it held back all that energy off the CA coast...unlikely solution, but you're right that it wasn't as progressive with the pattern as the Euro.

At the end of the Euro, it actually looks like the pattern is resetting again with heights building over the eastern Aleutians and the large-scale troughing moving quickly across the country.

I would say the one trend is for the pattern to be more progressive. That's definitely the direction the Euro and Canadian have gone over the past day.

Cliff himself may be a bit inebriated there.

I think this Euro run will be colder than last. Everything is shifted a bit further west.

I remember 3 separate small snowfalls for a total of 5-6" in Tacoma with that.

I think DJ's just tired. And Tim's just Tim.

Yeah, that's been there for awhile. You have the offshore ridge in the general area you want it, and it keeps popping up, but not very amplified.

Models are still lost past day 5. But the overall trend I'm seeing is the blocking ridge just isn't able to amplify enough up into the eastern Aleutians/Alaska. Keeps getting squashed by all the energy in the Bering Sea. Which means odds of a Arctic outbreak in the PNW remain low. Certainly doesn't mean there couldn't be some lowland snow, this pattern could easily allow for multiple bouts of that for some places.

The Euro is far more objective than the GFS. Or any of us.

Oh, 18z...

Not sure how you have any confidence in any model right now. There were actually some pretty significant differences in this Euro run from the last. And the one before that. Again...zero reason to put faith in any solution past day 5 at this point. Good or bad. Ensembles are also all over the place. Just have to wait it out.

The Canadian and Euro are definitely closer to each other than the GFS, that's for sure.

For one day? We shall see indeed...but there's no logical reason to have any confidence in any solution beyond 5 days right now.

Some serious torching the next couple days with highs in mid 60s forecast here. Outside shot we could challenge the record of 68 on Thursday, set in 1990. Of course, later that December...

Details sure, but it will take more than that to change in the other models for there to be any lowland snow at 180 hours or before. The models are a hot mess right now. AGW clearly to blame.