Front Ranger

Not record warm. That's all that matters! 0z setting up to be a very chilly run. Suppressed jet and all. I'm thinking will lead to some thoughts of slushy car tops Christmas morning.

If the 0z GFS is correct, any warm up this weekend will be very short-lived.

I'm not sure what you're talking about. There is some griping on here every day...didn't seem like much today.

Deep, man.

Agreed. It is a bummer that things have yet to amplify with the overall pattern being so favorable. That being said, the 500mb pattern was stuck in a ridgy rut for an awfully long time until a few months ago. Maybe the atmosphere will get stuck again for awhile.

So glad we're talking about snow.

18z = yawn = good When the 18z is snowgasmic, it never happens, as we all know.

My dad says snow is still on the ground in Myrtle Creek, snowing again but not sticking.

On the bright side, more and more cold air builds to the north through the run. It's true that a full-scale Arctic outbreak looks unlikely in the near future, but fun can still be had without that. Look at years like 1965-66, 1974-75, 2001-02. The pattern is close enough to something decent that it's somewhat interesting. Way better than most of last winter.

Certainly looks like a strong Nino December. But as I've pointed out, some of those anomalies West of the Mississippi will take a big hit this week.

Awesome! Far better than any storm I've seen this year. Expecting 2-4" tonight/tomorrow.

The upcoming pattern, should it appear as modeled, reminds me quite a bit of Dec 2007. After the first half of the month was quite a bit like Dec 2006.

I was here in 2008.

Even with the exceptional cold and repeated snowfalls of March 1951, the snow melted pretty quickly (more just kept falling). SEA got over 18" of snow in about a week that month, but never had more than 4" on the ground. However, 7 straight days with snow on the ground in March is pretty remarkable.

It's heading towards the same basic pattern we have now, just probably a touch cooler.

I will say the overall model agreement through day 8 is better than it's been in quite awhile.

The overall wavelengths are in the right place...just need a little bit more amplification to make the potential pattern good.

I said anomalies will be cut in half or more the next 4-5 days. Too soon to say for the extended.

That must be right by the creek. My parents are about a mile from there and just over 700'. According to the locals, they only see accumulating snow in that valley about every other year on average.

About 700' or so.

The entire West.

Sure it will. A lot of anomalies will be cut in half or more in 4-5 days.

12z Euro through day 5. If this went through day 6, the eastern half turns much cooler.

Snow down to the valley floor in southern OR this morning. My dad sent me this pic from their front yard in Myrtle Creek.

Nah. Look at history. You don't have to wait for the PV to break up for the PNW to get cold/snow. In fact, it's often the wave breakers leading up to the PV destruction (or not) that causes Arctic outbreaks in the PNW. Don't take it from me, Phil has mentioned this several times.