Front Ranger

Actually, some of the most drought-afflicted areas will be seeing the most anomalous rains. Yes, the Sierra snowpack is very important, but it's simply not accurate to act like heavy rains do little or nothing for drought relief.

I'm not disputing what you've experienced where you live. But you made some pretty wide-sweeping statements about the climate in general, based on your local station's records. Which is why I thought it might be wise to look at a few other stations in the region.

Those actually improved their outlook for 2015. And this looks much bigger. Read.

Yeah, as I already told him, of course heavy mountain snow will be preferable (there could be 1-3' above 8,000' with this, but obviously you want some at lower elevations), but to act like heavy rains provides no drought relief is just not accurate.

Let's see how that drought monitor you linked to looks next Thursday. I saved the map from Jan 27. We can see if the upcoming rains have any effect.

You obviously didn't take the time to even look at those links. Educate yourself. More rainfall = higher water supply = drought relief. It's not rocket science.

It's different, more wet and suppressed pattern than anything seen in January. Even for just the PNW, it looks wetter and stormier than any 4-5 day period in January. The death ridge of the past few weeks is taking a break. Let's see how the rest of the month plays out, but certainly more active and stormy for the West Coast to start with.

http://www.acwa.com/content/california-water-series/californias-water-storing-water http://californiawaterblog.com/2011/09/13/water-storage-in-california-2/

Everyone's wildest fantasies coming true! But it is at least looking like the most impressive series of storms for the West Coast thus far this winter, definitely different than anything seen in January. You can't collect sunshine in reservoirs!

Richard, you live there...care to explain to BLIsnowman how these upcoming storms actually will provide drought relief?

The early January event was major for WA coastal regions, with the flooding in Aberdeen, and provided some impressive 24-48 hour totals in some spots. But this event is much more widespread and prolonged. Several separate storms. Do a little research on water collection in northern/central CA. The reservoirs play a significant role in their water supply, and a storm of this magnitude would be very beneficial. Could be looking at 5-10" for many areas over the next week, that's massive for them.

Read again. I said average max. Because that's what the Tahoe poster had been citing for the past two Januaries. Jan 1948 had an average max temp of 55.48, well above the 53.84 and 53.55 of the past two Januaries.

Neither as extreme or extended as what's coming up. It's looking very likely most locations from Fresno north will have received more precip in February by the 10th as they received in all of January. Way more for northern CA/southern OR. And actually, the heavy rain in northern/central CA will provide drought relief, as there are quite a few big reservoirs for water storage throughout the region. Mountain snow would be preferable, but this will definitely provide drought relief, as any heavy precip down there does.

The upcoming pattern is a more extreme version of previous, brief warm/wet patterns this winter, yes. However, the dominant pattern in January was dry, so this is at least different than that. Only a handful of January days at SEA with more than .10" of precip - will probably top that number by the 10th this month. In fact, the first 10 days of February could easily end up wetter than the past 6 weeks many places in the PNW and on the West Coast. As far as Feb as a whole, way too early to say how it will end up. It does look like another dry period following this very wet one. But at least there will be some actual storms/strong low pressure systems impacting the West Coast over the next 4-5 days. Much needed drought relief down south.

No doubt the past couple Januaries have been extreme, but... The other Tahoe station has a much longer period of record, and the January with the warmest average high temp is 1961. In addition, that station was below normal as recently as August 2014. And that's below the long term average, not just 30 year. It was also below the long term average several months in 2013. Let's look at another reliable, long term station for the region: the Reno airport. Neither of the past 2 Januaries were even close to the record warm January max average from 1948. It's helpful to look at more than one station.

The 0z Canadian shows insane amounts for the northern half of CA. This could end up being the wettest week of the season for the West Coast as a whole.

The closest summer and year overall to 2014 was easily 1958. In terms of overall temps for the region. Right smack in the middle of the 20th century.

Agreed. It's more like wait 10 minutes here.

Next 4-5 days look pretty stormy/active for the PNW. More than any similar period the past couple months, really. Not cold/snow, but at least a change from the complete boredom of the pattern the past few weeks.

The Canadian has sucked deflated balls lately.

So I heard. Was it loud sunshine or quiet? There's a lot riding on this.

He and his warm bias are really enjoying this month?

You are my sunshine.

Yeah, the models were in lock step from about Jan 10 on showing mostly endless ridging for quite awhile. At least that has changed. Now back to your regularly scheduled "Woe is our winter" posts.

Yes, Alaska is colder than WA. Have a gold star. However, they've been "roasting" relatively speaking most of this cold season. That has begun to change recently as the tendency for full amplitude west coast ridging has weakened, and most models are now pointing to another significant cold period upcoming.