Front Ranger

It's looking pretty likely the Gorge will have snow cover, at least. I'm factoring that in as well.

Offshore ridge looking anemic this run. Not looking good for reload.

The para says there will be snow. Jesse SCORES.

Para is easily colder than operational as well. Still shows -9 to -10C for SEA, and -10 to 11C for PDX. Colder on east side as well.

The para is more generous with snow chances.

18z is not as cold as 12z models. Dewey's PDX call of 35 looks marginally better.

You think SLE will rattle off 6-7 sub-freezing highs?

Love ya, DD!

18z at hour 57.

Pretty sure that's what he originally meant, but then changed his meaning after he realized that was silly.

Wouldn't be surprised at all to see you get some snowfall going into this.

It's definitely a more impressive pattern/air mass than that, and as you said stronger outflow.

With low level cold as modeled, why?

The 12z Euro ensembles showed definite improvement in the 6-10 day period. As long as this huge -EPO keeps up, there is plenty of potential.

Yeah I could easily see PDX pulling off a day or two with highs 30-32, while SEA is 34-36.

Eh, with a full or near full latitude block like this, the source is essentially the Arctic regardless of what you want to call it.

The new GEM ensemble mean looks pretty good. Here it is for 180 hours.

Let's do it!

Looking at 925 temps, seems very likely PDX will pull off a sub-freezing day and very possible for SEA/OLM as well. Seattle NWS seems to think it will definitely be cold enough for snow to sea level Sun night/Mon morning for most of the Puget Sound area. Just a matter of moisture, and the most recent trend has been to increase the chances of at least a little being around. And as they say in their discussion, Arctic fronts are always tricky. At this point, snow chances do look better from PDX to OLM, but you never know.

Ended up with 7" from the storm, most of which fell by midnight last night.

Right about there for me, ha ha. But models have moderated a bit, I'm thinking the coldest day now will probably have highs in the 0 to 5 range, lows -10 to -15. We seem to be getting more and more day with lows below 0. The first few years I was here, we'd have maybe 1-2 days a year that would pull it off. Now it seems like every winter we have 5-6 or more days that fall below 0, and several with highs only in the single digits.

Kind of weird to see all the focus on a potential second blast, when it's becoming clearer the first event will be a legit Arctic blast, and lowland snow possibilities are looking probable (not for everyone, of course, but it is looking likely some of you will see some snow). The new GEM/Euro were very good through 120 hours. -8C or colder and highs below freezing at SEA and/or PDX is still the mark for an Arctic blast, right? Looks like this thing will easily do the trick.

Harsh...

I don't think anyone mentioned the 0z GFS ensembles. They still have the height anomaly in a good spot hours 168-240, but they're not as good as the 18z ensembles. FWIW.

When did Sunday look snowy? I agree that it's not quite as cold as the last couple Euro runs.