Front Ranger

0z Euro has delayed the shortwave some. Also, that cutoff low down in CA is even further West. Not a coincidence, imo.

Too bad. Would be better if they only showed ensembles or "weeklies" past 10 days. Better for weenie health.

Euro is better than GFS hours 72-96. Looks like it might spin up that weak low on the coast as well, but I can't see the hours in between those two frames, unfortunately. Looks more like the GEM.

Not to mention the south valley missing out on most of the events from 2006-2012...except for Jan 2008, big exception there.

I hear ya, man. It's been a tough run lately for western WA getting snow. Portland saw the same thing from 2009-12. Luck will change.

Every situation is different. This could end up being a Frasier/Gorge hybrid.

Maybe. But if the latest Canadian verified, you'd have a chance at a little snow and high temps would be much colder than that. More like 28-34 most places.

This is also a very cold run again, especially for PDX. About -12C at hour 108. About -10C for SEA.

Here's the GEM at hour 84.

GEM has nice bend back with the initial trough and develops that weak low off the coast. Still some potential with that first shortwave, and that's the most realistic thing to be looking at now. Shows some possible snow for western WA around 210-216.

Frustrating to see so much inconsistency from the models for so long...and then the most consistent model lately is the least proven.

Any sign of the SSW yet? Not looking like AO/NAO is going to plunge any time soon...AO looks to hover on both sides of neutral for the next 7-10 days at least, NAO is weakly negative now, but is forecast to go quite positive soon. But I know those things can change quickly following a SSW. So far the EPO is running the show...does this affect the rest of your forecast, or do you think it's just a timing thing?

I said someone on the west side...meaning a poster here on the west side of the Cascades. Pretty sure that doesn't include MD.

Should have clarified...I meant someone on this forum. That's all that matters.

Would be nice to see the timing move up a little. That second shortwave keeps getting pushed back. I don't really trust the new GFS, simply because it hasn't proven much yet. If the 0z Euro is still showing what it has the past couple runs and the timing is moving up, I'll be a lot more confident in something good for you guys.

For the operational, ridge is more amplified and further west by day 7, but also skinnier and weaker. Any shortwave is taking it's sweet time moving down. Not gonna see the timing moved up on this run. Maybe the parallel.

The moisture is very sparse...the low is just barely there, and it wasn't on the last GFS run or the NAM. But there's still time for a slight shift west, a little more digging, that's all it would take. Like I said, can't rule it out yet, but at this point I would give the odds of anyone on the west side seeing 1"+ at about 20%. Last time I gave low odds to something good occurring, the models drastically improved within 2 runs. You're welcome.

The 0z does spin up that very weak low off the coast of WA again...shows a little bit of moisture around still as the cold air mass works in.

Through hour 48, the 0z GFS is nearly identical to the 18z. Looking like the models may have finally locked in to what's going to happen with this first short wave...just a bit too far east for a true Arctic intrusion or any real snow. But not ruling anything out, of course.

Sometimes it's good, sometimes terrible...but yes, overall statistically the worst model past 48 hours.

Yep. But then there's the parallel...

0z NAM further east with shortwave, not so good.

If we get two weeks of cold before that, who cares. How did the weeklies two weeks ago look for the coming week? I can't remember. Model overload.

I don't think anyone has mentioned this yet, but the 12z Euro ensembles looked pretty good for retrogression possibilities, probably the best yet.

Yup, Jan 1979 was similar as well.