mlgamer

Storms forming just east of here has been a problem for many years in MBY and I believe persistent SW ridging has been a big part of the problem. I'm glad to see that Gary appears to show the SW ridging a little more flattened out and retrograded back to the west. Maybe that will open the door for more organized systems to move through here.

Yep, that's right. Topeka officially has 7.2" for the winter and would only need 10" more to hit normal so we do kinda have a head start for once. Overall, I think we'll be warm and wet here, but I do thing there will be warm and cold spells and if we time out the cold right it could give us more snow overall...maybe even above average for the year. Stay tuned! lol

Looking at a 51-52 day LRC and the next couple of systems (both match up nicely at 500mb)... 1) I don't think this weekend system (Dec 8/9) will amount to anything significant for my area including KC. All of the QPF was generally north and east of me when this system came through Oct 18/19 similar as shown on today's 18z GFS. We'll see. 2) I think my next weather maker will be next week around Dec 15/16 (and maybe just a rainer?). This system brought the very heavy rains Oct 24/25 just to the south and east of me. The 12z Euro seems to be nicely picking up on this next system moving in at 240 hrs:

A gentle light snow has been falling at times this afternoon, but our 7" storm has melted away so the ground is bare again. I'm still seeing a 51-52 day LRC but what do I know...lol. Recent Decembers have been pretty snowless here for the most part so hopefully this one is more exciting.

Looking strictly at the daily 500mb charts (and not forecast models) I am seeing around a 51-52 day LRC the best but nothing shorter really. Not saying that's right, just would like to see 500mb chart examples that support a shorter cycle. I don't know if Lezak has posted anything like that yet since I have no access to him.

00z NAM moving the snow off of me to the north. Such is life on the rain/snow line...

A Topeka Tale of Two Cities... November 1-18: precip 0.01" : snowfall 0.0" November 19-26: precip 1.36" : snowfall 7.2"

That makes sense and I guess I wasn't really that far off in my original thinking. I'll make sure I avoid SEMI if I ever decide to move up that way. No more rain/snow lines for me, thanks...lol

Hey, I'm still hanging around..lol. I've learned a lot about great lakes weather, "the mitt" and LES by following you guys here. I was surprised to see you guys often have the same problems we have in Kansas...warm thermals, dry air, bad storm tracks. I use to think it just snowed around there all time. Guess not...lol.

So here ya go...our first snowfall of the season in November was more than all of last winter...which wasn't all that hard to beat...

I finished with 7" at my house!! This is the first snowfall over 6" in MBY in nearly 10 years (13", 2/4/2014). Topeka set a record for November 25 with 6.3" (old record was 6.1", 1975). I don't know if they recorded any more after midnight.

I measured 5" in MBY and looking at radar could see squeezing out maybe another 1-2". Nice to have the recent rain and snow after the very dry summer and fall!

I'd need to double check, but I'm pretty certain our biggest snowfall in the winter of 2018-2019 was in November. Hate to think it's downhill from here...lol..

Reports in around Topeka suggests a general 3-5" has fallen across the area and still snowing. If you have FOX TV the Kansas State - Iowa State football game is on and being played in the snow in Manhattan!

Over an inch so far but the temp has been running 33-34 degrees. Getting down to freezing would help. Still, not bad for November! VID_20231125_144916567.mp4

The forecast heavy snow track across southwest, south central into northeast KS is pretty much the "classic" heavy snow track that was common in the 1970s - 1980s but has been fairly rare since then. In fact, Feb 4, 2014 and the Dec 2009 Christmas Blizzard are the only systems I can remember off the top of my head that had similar heavy snow tracks for many years now. Happening in November makes this even more unique. Of course it still has to snow first to make this anything real...lol. Looks like @Jayhawker85 picked the wrong time to leave town but I'm sure he's having fun...lol. I'll post pics later if it pans put. Good luck to @Clinton and others downstream to get into the action!

Yeah, I hear you. Dewpoints have been holding steady in the mid teens here and are supposed to rise from there tomorrow. Dry air nearby is always a wildcard.

Here's the latest and greatest on the early season snow potential..

Looks like our local mets have decided on 3-5" for MBY. Don't have the numbers handy, but I believe it was 2018 that we last had a November snowfall over 1". Now all it has to do is actually snow...lol.

Yeah, that's what I thought, too. TOP is really conservative I guess. They should let some of us here write the forecasts...they'd really rock n roll...lol

From the Same Stuff Different Year department... Topeka NWS noted in the afternoon disco a slight NW shift in the 12z guidance which of course means no watch for me and maybe even more rain mixing in. Don't know if there was a shift or not but that's what they said. I actually think they like delivering this kind of bad news to local snow lovers. Yuck. Anyway...Happy Thanksgiving to everyone! And good luck to those cashing in on early season snow!

I took my first early glance at the SREF plumes this morning. It's officially winter! lol

Storm total of 1.10" in MBY. That was the first REAL measurable rain here in November (officially 0.01" before this storm).

This is a nice looking system on radar. I'm getting into the dry slot a bit, but this is a system to keep an eye on during future cycles. I have picked up almost 1" of rain so far which was much needed and much welcomed.

Yeah, I was hoping to get off to an early start for once. Guess not.