mlgamer

I have high confidence in this solution because it clearly shows the Topeka snow hole. Sigh...lol

I was also saddened by Jim Flowers decision to call it quits. I did watch his video before he took his Facebook page down and I hope he didn't make this decision in the heat of the moment, though I suspect he may have been thinking about it for a while. The truth is we live in an entitlement culture now and people get angry and lash out when things don't go their way, even something small as not getting an expected heavy snowfall. How ironic people like this are often referred to as "snowflakes".

Here is the scorecard as we begin to approach the latter part of winter. It will be interesting to see how this changes in the coming days and then through the rest of the season. Short of moving the Earth farther away from the Sun, I have no idea how to get winter going along the I-70 corridor. Seems to be a yearly problem out here in KS and MO.

The Euro shows the surface temperatures to be just above freezing for most of the Wed/Thu event for MBY. The 10:1 map also shows a higher total than Kuchera. Looks like a wet slopfest. Yuck.

lol...yeah it could be garbage or maybe not. But one thing is true...you never disappoint me...lol

Coincidentally, I was reading a climate change related article earlier today which I will reference here since the subject has been brought up even though this thread is not necessarily the best place for discussion. This more or less reflects my thinking on the matter but others certainly may and do have different or opposing opinions. Just thought folks might find this interesting. Net Zero Will Lead to the End of Modern Civilisation, Says Top Scientist The article refers to this report: While the Climate Always Has and Always Will Change, There Is no Climate Crisis ABSTRACT "The emphasis on a false climate crisis is becoming a tragedy for modern civilization, which depends on relible, economic, and environmentally viable energy. The windmills, solar panels and backup batteries have none of these qualities. This falsehood is pushed by a powerful lobby which Bjorn Lomborg has called a climate industrial complex, comprising some scientists, most media, industrialists, and legislators. It has somehow managed to convince many that CO2 in the atmosphere, a gas necessary for life on earth, one which we exhale with every breath, is an environmental poison. Multiple scientific theories and measurements show that there is no climate crisis. Radiation forcing calculations by both skeptics and believers show that the carbon dioxide radiation forcicng is about 0.3% of the incident radiation, far less than other effects on climate. Over the period of human civilization, the temperature has oscillated between quite a few warm and cold periods, with many of the warm periods being warmer than today. During geological times, it and the carbon dioxide level have been all over the place with no correlation between them."

Hard to believe but this storm has produced a tornado watch only three counties south of me...on Jan 2 no less.

Let's check in on today's weather...

December snowfall has been pretty light here since the epic December of 2009 (19.2") which featured the Christmas blizzard. The average snowfall since then (2010-2022) is 10% of that. Dec 2009: 19.2" Dec Avg 2010-2021: 1.9" Dec 2022: 1.5"

Merry Christmas (a day late)! Snowfall so far this season looks like what one might expect with the heavier amounts to the north and the lesser amounts to the south. Not much in the middle part of the country though. Maybe another backloaded winter on the way for those areas...or not. lol

About 1-1.5" inches here, similar to others around the area.

Nice writeup @Jack_GradStudent. There is nothing unusual about snow skipping past Topeka so you probably nailed that part.

We have a light rain/heavy mist here and everything is wet. Temp 33.8 and dew point 31.1 in MBY. Things will freeze up very quickly when the cold air comes blasting in here within an hour or two and we'll be off to a very slick start...

15z SREF plumes made a big jump for me again. Mean is 7.50". These are usually overdone for me. But still, have no idea why the big jump.

And you would have many, many years of images to choose from...lol

That's not too bad Clinton. Maybe you'll come out with a decent event. Mine are all running about half that (except 6.0" on RGEM).

It's amazing how systems will show such promise and then be reduced to next to nothing. Never seems to work the other way...

One thing is the RGEM continues to maintain the primary SLP in the southern plains rather than placing it quickly into the upper midwest/great lakes region. The subsequent track seems similar to 11/4, to me anyway. Of course, other parameters differ this time around.

NWS TOP AFD mentions possible upgrade to blizzard warning for certain areas if conditions warrant... "Consideration was given to a Blizzard Warning for at least a portion of the area, but at this time uncertainty remains regarding where/when the heaviest snow would coincide with the strongest winds. If confidence increases on this aspect, parts of the area may still be upgraded."

The 09z SREF was the best SREF run for me lately and doubled the snow mean to 4.49". Maybe it's collectively sticking me under one of the hit or miss bands.

Same thing here. Nothing more than wind-blown flurries if these early models verify (mostly around 0.10" QPF). Edit: 00z RDPS slight QPF improvement from the 18z run from 0.2" to 0.3".

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18z GFS, NAM, RDPS has me stuck at about 0.30" QPF. 18z ICON about half that. That's just not going to cut it. I'm hoping better sampling on the 00z runs and after leads to better results.

If I remember correctly, the models had already locked in the recent northern plains blizzard by now. As usual, a storm further south (in my area) still has a variety of ever evolving solutions.