The chance of a Nino has been zero for a long time. Although Phil said yesterday he sees a possible path for warm neutral now. A strong Nina also seems like its off the table. Neutral is best for blocking anyways.
Less impressive than it was no doubt. That is still a good cold bubble though. It just hasn't gotten any traction so far. We can safely say the chances of a Nino are about zero though.
You are way overstating the cold subsurface right now. Its not that impressive and hasn't change for the last 2 months. And its been focused almost entirely on the far eastern side of the ENSO region.
We have the best trade wind burst of the year about to commence. If this doesn't get the Nina off the ground nothing will. The cold subsurface water has just been waiting for a chance to surface.