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SalemDuck

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Everything posted by SalemDuck

  1. SalemDuck
    The GFS the past few runs looks to be setting things up just beyond the end of the run. Some patience from the resident Debbie downers is required. At least the runs are showing blocking and getting rid of the constant Aleutian low
  2. SalemDuck
    Certain forum members are rubbing off on me. The worlds greatest model the GFS will lead the way in this!
  3. SalemDuck
    At least it’s now and we can manage a good final ten days of the month. Hopefully the GFS is onto something and that bumps the timing closer to mid month.
  4. SalemDuck
    I agree. Inside of the next two weeks is more of my point. I think it’s fairly clear at this point that some sort of blocking is going to take place in the North Pacific. What that leads to is anyone’s guess but potential for a cold and or snowy pattern is there, just a ways out and far from a guarantee
  5. SalemDuck
    Day 15 EPS. Not really good. So far the GFS is the only model showing anything good inside of 15 days.
  6. SalemDuck
    This is how the euro ends. Block begins to pivot and has the beginning movement of retrogression.
  7. SalemDuck
    GEFS was a step back. Retrogression still happened but didn’t move far. Aleutian low stronger and jet retraction a touch slower
  8. SalemDuck
    The GFS is being persistent now in the long range about forcing really cold air into mid latitudes of North America
  9. SalemDuck
    Northern Canada is much less of a torch end of run than last nights EPS
  10. SalemDuck
    It slightly retrogrades. The jet retracts the final five days of the run. As Phil mentioned early it’s a slow progression to the pattern change.
  11. SalemDuck
    Jet begins to retract starting around day 13 but you’re right it’s pretty ugly at day 15
  12. SalemDuck
    How about now?
  13. SalemDuck
    The EPS says the Op is a big liar.
  14. SalemDuck
    Don't ever post on this, big lurker. But Kuchera snowfall is even more impressive.
  15. SalemDuck
    The EPS Control run does the same thing but some how manages to end up with cross polar flow.http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2018011812/noram/eps_z500a_c_noram_53.png
  16. SalemDuck
    I hardly have ever commented on this but it's because of resolution, Troutdale on the ensembles is more like 1000-1500', same with Hillsboro. PDX is the more accurate location, which shows an ensemble mean of 3" by the end of the 15 days.
  17. SalemDuck
    This should win the contest...
  18. SalemDuck
    Long time lurker. But the 14z HRRR is quite a bit better than the 13z was.
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