Esquimalt

Some awesome fall systems coming thru at hour 262+ on the GFS!!!!

Decent!

The good news is that the last few GFS runs have been featuring a couple of major systems moving off the pacific around hour 360, so at least there’s something in the foreseeable future. The bad news is that probably by the end of this troughing the south island won’t even have an inch of rain.

Good simile Farmboy

Don't you worry. We might get the rain now but Shawinigan will certainly be the winners come the snow.

Wow a secondary totally unplanned low is delivering awesome rainfall in a north- south column in Victoria, clearly seen on radar!

GEM looking much wetter than previous runs. GFS much drier and ridgier. What will the Euro say?

Early or late november?

When would you say is our first realistic shot at snow this year?

Cold coming down here at this time of the year means we lose any progress that we have on the polar vortex right?

12Z GEM looks awesome! Over 2 inches of rain here in Victoria over the next ten days! Meanwhile, the smoke is back here . Smell is quite evident and the sky looks slightly hazy. Just can't wait for the rain to wash it away.

That 500mb pattern is something we could only dream of in January. Of course it has to happen in September lol.

12Z GFS not looking as wet. The troughs seem toned down relative to the 00Z and 06Z

Very wet progression on the 0Z as a 994 MB low approaches from the SW on the 10th day.

Glad to see you aren’t cheering for any more heatwaves !

Pretty trough GFS and GEM runs this morning...but the big question remains: CAN IT HAPPEN IN REALITY?

Just keep it to PMs Tim....

Quite the soaking on the clown range of the 06Z with a very deep trough for September...sounds wonderful but can it be believed ?

When in November are you thinking? I'm a little worried cause I'm going to Ottawa, Montreal and Toronto between the 8th and 15th of November and would hate to miss our one cold stretch of the whole season!

06Z GFS was truly troughy...may set rainfall records for some locations .

Bad, bad news. The 12Z GFS is much drier with the Friday night system.

What do you think the winter holds for the PNW if it does go weak El Nino? What do analogs tell us?

Well the ICON, 06Z GFS, 12Z CMC and to a certain extent the 12Z Euro all showed favourable tracks. The NAM and the other GFS runs all favoured a track where the low stalls and weakens off of north-west VI, which would probably not be the greatest wind producer for many of us.

Currently 61 farenheight at my house. Pretty beautiful day out there.