James Jones

What's the long range EPS looking like right now? Would be nice to get a true regional arctic blast out of this pattern before it breaks down.

The Portland area had some in January 2017.

This is giving me a flashback to the great "That's not a trough" debate of summer 2016.

Can you post the Euro temp plots if they're out?

Not updated quite yet but this is what I've been using: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=135728&model=gfs&var=201&run=18&lid=ENS&bw=

Yeah if this ends up verifying the conventional wisdom on our window is going to be reconsidered.

I keep trying to not get overly excited in anticipation of the rug pull but I can't help myself. Holy ******* that Euro run is absolutely unreal

Shows a lot of the precip falling as rain with southerly flow for PDX Friday/Saturday but I think (hope) it's underestimating the gorge influence.

Seems like the supposed February cutoff is just happenstance during the airport records where December/January were favored. Events like Feb 1890, 1923, and 1936 show major cold is very possible even after the early portion of the month. And that Euro run is ******* incredible.

Similar stuff on the NAM. Some hope still

Seeing the occasional flake mix in. Score!!!!!!

Just drove around the hills of West Linn. Saw some chunky raindrops.

The FV3 looks amazing all the way through hour 330 where it shows a backdoor blast. Hard to believe that a 19th to early 20th century old school cold February is on the table. Snow totals on the FV3 are amazing too, if we get even half of this I think most aside from Snowsquall would be thrilled

That's the most consistently cold ensemble mean I've ever seen.

Goes to show how overstated our reputation for rain is.

Eye candy

Block on the FV3 is looking better at hour 108 FWIW. Bitter cold in SW BC. vs.

How is the long range EPS looking?

Looks like the ridge is slowly moving west on the 15 day EPS.

We will never see interesting weather ever again ever.

Unlikely it will be worse than this one even if it is a strong Nino. If this winter ends up being the all time dud it's shaping up to be (still only January 7th so things could change) it would take almost nothing to surpass it. Plus second year Ninos are often better than the first, '15-'16 was much better than the preceding winter for example, as was '87-'88.

Imagine if you lived in a climate that was actually cloudy. Seattle gets a lot more sun than many big European cities like London, Paris, or Berlin for example.

Totally mind boggling. What was different about that AR event that allowed it to dump so much precip?

If I don't like it it must be fake news.

There are records of sunshine hours somewhere? Never seen that.