GobBluth

there's your 1964 and 1996 analogs.

Looks like a 1000 ft snow level onshore flow event for Washington and Oregon.

12z is splitting off that Kona low a little better, could improve chances for full retrogression. Nevermind, the storm in the Bering Sea is going to crash the ridge.

All that potential Hawaii borne moisture could be why 1964 shows up.

That Hawaii moisture is screwing with ideal retrogression

Yeah looks like two different ridges combine.

good phrasing. it's seemed the pacific has been raging far too strong to allow for blockage.

Mann showed up

CFS is looking sessual starting the first week of December- all that cold air is finally migrated to over the poles. Anyone know if the CFS uses it's own algorithm, or is it using the same modeling tech as the big three?

I like that long range Euro.

00 gfs looks great but that ugly ridge towards the end...ugly

this time of the year I think we should be happy with a pattern giving mountain snow. I'm a little worried with how El Nino splitty it's trying to get way out there.

12z gfs looks good in the believable range.

A swing back around to a +pna?

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016111600/660/850t_anom.na.png

Sometimes the GEM captures the pattern changes towards cold weather first, then the 12z run may be one to watch - gets very close to the goods towards day 8-9.

the 8-14 day trend seems to be towards a W-NW jet rather than a cold blast.

I remember that storm - incredible amounts of rain and amazed how quick my manual rain gauge was filling up.

the 12z keep the loop idea, but moves it through Florida into the Gulf - assuming it survives the land interaction, with all that warm water, sounds like a potential nightmare.

ugh, that long range broad ridge pattern is a nightmare.

1985 analogs, early season cold snap?

I like the arctic centered 500mb high on the euro with all the undercutting energy across the pacific.

I was up there friday and saturday. Got as high as Warm Lake as the marine air was beginning to stream through the mountain gaps - clouds so close you could almost touch them.

Tons of huckleberries while hiking the east side from Conrad Meadows to Surprise Lake.

Also looks the wettest for next Monday.