Mi_Matthew

Well said. A good analogy is the Detroit Lions, especially the "creative ways to NOT deliver." My relationship with the Lions ended many years ago but I still cannot shake model hype!!! Even after being abused time and time again. Maybe if winter 2013/14 never happened I'd have an entirely different perspective.

Congrats! Curious how DTX plays this. GFS would bring over an inch of ice my way.

ICON gives me hope for an epic changeover in SEMI with the second wave. But, it is the ICON...

Strung out crap or not, I gotta say I'm a little impressed by the consistency of the GFS for the last 10 or so runs. I hate the outcome though...

I'm not discounting anything yet, in fact, didn't the GFS score a win over the Euro lately? However, if the Euro doesn't at least budge a little south the white towel is entering the ring.

Whoa! Lightning over Saginaw Bay!

I'm liking the bands on radar setting up west of me. Jaster, any of those on a collision course with you? Looks like some good "training" setting up for somebody.

Yep. This is brutal. I'd rather see nothing from the models than this constant teasing. Anti-magnet in full effect!

Ma Nature sure is a tease. I've gone from rain to snow and back three, if not four, times the last 90 minutes! Plain old rain again now turning what snow did fall into low viscosity concrete. Ughh. I guess I should just be happy seeing some surprise snow. I'm also impressed with the NAM and HRRR nailing an embedded area of moderate/heavy snow with rain on all four sides of it.

Spoke too soon. Hopefully this is the last transition. Virtually no wind at all right now with large dendrites. Whitening everything quickly.

It tried really hard to transition about 20 minutes ago. I even had a light accumulation on top of the fallen leaves. Back to rain. I think thermals are just too borderline here. Someone to my north & west should do pretty well though.

Still rain but the wind chimes just started chirping in the last couple minutes. If it is going to happen I think it will be really soon.

HRRR has shown for several runs now a jack zone very close by. 3-4" per hour rates! I'm starting to get a bit excited now. Light rains have become a downpour. Sounds like a mid-summer thundershower(w/o the thunder) on the roof. Man, if this could only changeover with this precip rate.

Currently experiencing rain and 35 degrees at the cottage. Gotta be one of my favorite noises of any season, the pitter patter of rain drops on an un-insulated roof, makes 35 & rain tolerable, so relaxing. WWA just went into effect but unless dynamic cooling can win out before the heavy precip to my south moves in, I feel like this advisory is 8 or so hours premature. Fingers crossed for over-achieving! My zone forecast has little to no accums daytime and 2-3" tonight, FWIW. 06z NAM likes areas just to my west and just to my north...

Thanks Tom, Euro & NAM looking better each run!

Thank you. And right on cue, look at that band on the 3km NAM! Getting closer.

I'd be happy with the higher end of the 2-4", not counting on it though. I'm hoping to see a little bit of everything between late tonight and Tuesday evening. Big wild card for NW parts of Lower MI looks to be if the cold air can make it in quick enough to take advantage of the still bombing low, instead of waiting on LES & broad deformation snows. And good luck to you! Edit: Looks like both 3km & 12km NAM coming in further east.

They're 2 & 3, my brother just got them their first sleds. Any hill would be cool. The cottage we'll be at has a small hill leading down to the lake but I don't trust the ice at this point.

I'll be in extreme southwestern Clare County the next two nights for some pre-New Years revelry. We're hoping for enough snow to take my nieces sledding, looking like we'll be right on the edge per the high res models, might have to take a short drive west. Any of my west MI peeps know anywhere to sled perhaps in the Reed City or Big Rapids areas?

Eh, that doesn't bother me. While I agree, a "should be" temperature is nonsensical during transitory months, i.e. fall and spring, it would also be impractical to totally ignore climatological norms. Maybe a common ground would be to use standard deviation. Anything within +/- 1 standard deviation shouldn't be noteworthy, just my opinion. Furthermore, one could say they "normally" have x amount of snow OTG on x date of the calendar. To differ significantly from that amount is still noteworthy.

Recent radar trends look pretty good for you over there. I just hope I'm awake for any convective band/s if they make it this way!

Yep, really lame unless one is to believe the CMC which shows a few clippers over the next 10 days vs. the GFS which is amping the warmth more in line with the Euro. I think the CMC will lose this battle.

So you're saying there's a chance? Let's go Canada!

Not thrilled with the model runs so far today, but I'm still ok with being on the northwest periphery at this time range. More often than not the trend is north within 48 hours. The increasing separation between the waves is also good news up this way. 0z could change my tune completely though...