whatitdo

Yeah was gonna say confused as to why our office downplaying it haha

@jaster220 thoughts on this upcoming system?

That’s a fair point. Guess i should share ur optimism considering our average january temp is 30/15

With the insane warm up coming up with highs in the 40s for SWMI the lakes should be wide open for lake effect should cold air ever come down...only way to look at this in a glass half full kinda way

Warmest ive seen for a january map tbh

Too warm for anything substantial. Especially with temperature outlook looking very mild for January I fear w/o an SSW it’ll be much of the same at least for south michigan - despite the active pattern and being in middle of meteorological winter. Where is the cold?

sigh.

got a map to share for michigan?

Dont worry they never do lol

I don't buy this for SW michigan at this time frame - feel it will be a rainer till the 2nd wave rolls in and makes things interesting

From meteorologist Mark Torregrosa for fellow Michiganders: ”Right now your time period of Thursday morning looks warm enough for rain from either of the two models we trust out that far. Definitely keep an eye on it with me and ask again Tuesday-ish. The time period in question would be Friday when it could get cold enough for some snow if the storm is still around. But Thursday morning is center in the warm flow. Looks like it could be 10-20 degrees warmer than normal Thursday morning. That would be hard to have any wintry precip. Hope this helps!”

From grand rapids NWS office: bolded explains why this is so uncertain -- A range of impacts possible with a messy system Wed-Fri -- We are looking at an extended period of unsettled weather from Wednesday through Friday, with a good deal of uncertainty with regard to details at this time. There is good agreement amongst the models and their ensembles that a fairly strong low will be taking shape to our SW as the southern and northern branches of the jet stream phase over the Plains. It looks likely that we will see a burst of some snow late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning as the warm front moves through. Then, we will see additional precipitation ahead of the system move in later on Wednesday and Wednesday night. This looks like it could transition through a wintry mix before changing all to rain as enough warm air moves overhead. The exact timing of this is still in question. The uncertainty begins on Thursday once the initial low and precipitation moves through. The uncertainty exists as a result of the eastern progress of the front, and additional energy that will eventually ride up along the front. The final answer will be the result of multiple pieces of upper energy that eventually dictate the formation of the low, and the movement of the parts of it. There is no way at this time to pin down the details for Thursday and Friday with multiple pieces of energy, that are all over the Pacific Ocean and Arctic, that will all interact with each other. The general possibilities are that we could end up on the front side of the system, and have quite a bit more rain and develop some hydro issues. If the system is more progressive east, but close enough to affect us, we could see some accumulating snow. We could even end up out of the main precipitation. Wind also could be a factor. It is something that bears watching, as different significant impacts will be possible with this energetic system.

Got 2.5 inches here in kzoo. Was wonderful. Went out and caught a heavy lake effect band - first ever! Despite low totals so far, really couldn’t have asked for a better holiday season.

Would be very pleased to have been wrong w that sentiment lol. But i was saying that based on nws changed description on snowfall accumulations for christmas day from 4 inches to 1 for whatever reason. When are the heaviest bands supposedly coming through?

Hope it's still there but looking more and more like i won't see more than an inch or two out this thing. cant complain, best christmas weather ive ever had . The wait for the big one continues tho...

if there's no ssw i feel we may be in trouble

Here in kzoo we've had around 1/2 - 3/4 inch so far, gusty winds preventing accumulation. But I must say it's amazing just to see any white stuff floating around this time of year!

is there a reason his maps never show anything for west michigan or is that just how this map is?

@jaster220 @Stacsh why is the euro so hell bent on killing our vibes loool

sigh. looks like euro's cutting back on the lake effect machine.

euro much warmer than gfs on incoming arctic air

Also would like to know this!

Yeah the misses SE have been brutal. Trusting these lows to track in the right direction isn't panning out - im hoping LES bails me out. Below is what NWS is thinking for my area. I have quite literally ~never~ experienced a white Christmas. It would truly be amazing if this came true, especially it being my first winter in the great lakes area, and I would have no problem disregarding the abysmal snow fall totals thus far if it came into fruition. -- Lake Effect Snow Machine Cranks to Life into Christmas Eve -- The main show in the 7 day forecast is the plunge into Arctic air and the threat for lake snows down wind of Lake Michigan. An Arctic front will plow through the area Wednesday night (23rd into the 24th). Models are still placing us on the warm side of the system initially on Wednesday, so any synoptic snow swath looks to miss us well to the north and west over Northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula. Lake effect snow looks to get cranking Wednesday night, lasting through Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. 850mb temperatures drop to around -20C. That will push delta T`s into the extreme category in the middle 20s C. Loads of instability obviously along with deeper moisture via the upper trough overhead and shortwaves moving through to enhance lift. All ingredients look to be coming together for some healthy lake snows towards Lake Michigan. So, the entire area will not see significant snows, but for areas along and west of Highway 131 its looking more likely. Travel will be impacted given low temperatures and accumulating snow. Later forecasts will provide more details as we get closer to the event. GFS BUFKIT overviews indicate a very healthy environment for lake effect snow. The Northwest flow in place should keep things confined mainly west of 131. That said there is plenty of time for the models to shift the flow a bit. Stay tuned...

How likely is LES for the kalamazoo area? I was looking at the 850 temps and obviously some very cold air is coming in. Thought I heard somewhere the winds predicted to be NW. If i recall correctly from your LES post before we want a Tdelta 13-20 degrees? Whats it look like this time around - (i know this is still way early)?

you have a link by any chance? I'm on https://www.weather.gov/grr/ just don't know where to navigate from there