OKwx2k4

1 hour ago, mlgamer said:

China appears to be enduring a harsh December (all part of that recent Siberian cold blob) which reminded me of their severe winter of 2008. It seems we have nothing quite as harsh as this reads in the USA anymore. This is pretty interesting stuff...

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-braces-blistering-cold-this-week-2023-12-12/

Snow, blizzards and plunging temperatures swept northern China in what could be one of its most severe cold snaps in December, spurring authorities in the capital to halt train services, shut schools and tell people to stay home.

A mass of cold air drifted into Beijing from the west, the second cold wave this week. City officials have issued the second-highest alert for blizzards through Thursday, the only such warning yet in the country...

...This week's cold snap, compared with the autumn-like conditions of a week ago, reflects recent sharp temperature swings. October was one of Beijing's warmest in decades, in a year of weather extremes...

...Temperatures could drop more than 14 C, across swathes of northern, northwestern and southern China, along with parts of Inner Mongolia, Guizhou province and even regions south of the Yangtze River, weather officials have said.

Issuing its first alert since 2013 against freezing temperatures, the National Meteorological Centre (NMC) urged local governments to take precautions, along with measures to protect tropical crops and aquatic produce.

It has forecast wide rain and snowfall in central and eastern regions until Friday, with as much as 30 mm (1.2 inches) of precipitation in snowstorms in parts of Shaanxi, Henan and Shandong provinces.

The cumulative snowfall could be the highest in the corresponding period in a decade, it added.

Many rivers have already frozen over in the vast northeastern province of Heilongjiang bordering Russia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Chinese_winter_storms

The 2008 Chinese winter storms were a series of winter storm events that affected large portions of southern and central China, where it does not usually snow severely or extensively, starting from 25 January 2008, until 6 February 2008. The systems affected most of the area with heavy snows, ice, and cold temperatures causing extensive damage and transportation disruption for several thousand travelers. It became China's worst winter weather in half a century. According to some media sources, the storms were directly responsible for at least 129 deaths...(more at link)

 

I believe we are currently sitting on the warm side of this balancing act. However, if I were storing cold air, I'd start it over the largest landmass in the Northern Hemisphere. 

Interesting stuff indeed.

@mlgamerbrought up a year that has kept creeping into my consciousness and that was 2008-09. Even though it was pre-niño of 2009-10, there are some similarities in the nature of this season and that one. 

@Black Holehas great points about 2009 still being relevant in a lot of areas and also why its not, as well. The forcing and modeled -NAO are two very key points. 

That is what makes weather and sst/analog based forecasting so fun. No two years are the same. If you get close at 500mb you can get a reasonable idea of some stuff. El Niño, in the broad sense, does do some generally predictable things but I'm very thankful now that major forecasters are stating in their forecasts for the first time in over a generation that there's no cookie cutter for an El Niño or a one size fits all and to me that's a huge breakthrough. Stating things now that are science backed like that background state in prior years does matter and some other stuff. 

That said, I think there's still a good amount of winter to go around yet.

I believe pretty firmly that this winter holds off til right at Christmas and then it's full-bore into it after that. 

One characteristic of El Niño of this type is that even in good winters, it's a delayed winter. 

Winters like 2009-10 are an anomaly with just near-perfect delivery time and again. Same with 2013-14. Those are a rarity.

I'd enjoy the warmth while we have it on our side, though. 

On 11/24/2023 at 3:58 PM, jaster220 said:

@Tom

Just watched last week's Saturday Summary and JB had a great segment on how the JMA is showing a very strong resemblance to 2014-15 as you go month-to-month. That ofc would mean we may roast and get very bored with December. 

We may all well get another two week torch in, but if we go 14-15s route, once we get cracked off, it'll be a 12 week adventure. That's the idyllic "both flavors of Niño" scenario, really. Even though I believe 2014-15 is regarded as a neutral. 

Some rounds of this pattern include reinforcing cold shots or a blocking effect as well and that is something to keep in mind going into the cold cycle of this pattern later in season.

I agree with you guys on the cycle length as well. It's been pretty steady and visible in my opinion.

Seeing split camps continue on Niño.....

My hat is tossed in the camp of cycling right into a Modoki style Niño. There are mets like Larry Cosgrove who state that the jet hanging further south over Gulf and TX/Mexico insicate a very high liklihood of colder air plunging deeper into the US over the eastern two thirds than would normally see in an East based Niño. I agree with this and have since way back in the summer. Time a surge of moisture here just right and it's fun times. The rest writes itself. 

While overall winter may not have that wall-to-wall thump, I'm feeling very strong about my thoughts that we will see something very stout cold and white stuff in our future. 

I haven't said much and won't really add much to the same tune of winter being one that looks to lock all in place right at the right time. 

Evidence is mounting that my Niño call is a half-bust. While models are consistently showing forcing shifting to the dateline as I'd called for, the overall strength and continued occasional strengthening has continued even in spite of an unfavorable subsurface. 

I really think @Tom and @jaster220are hitting it on the head. I believe this region has the most favorable track for large, deepening snowstorms and tons of associated moisture. 

This month having a cold finish will be another positive sign. We'll see how that goes.

On 11/2/2023 at 12:31 PM, sumweatherdude said:

For my own education, can you explain why 2009-10 looks like a good analog.  I honestly don't put much emphasis on analogs.  But that was a banner year in KC (and Chicago where I was at the time).  Curious why that looks like a good comparison this year -- as opposed to say 1986-87.

Thanks!

The atmosphere going into autumn. The late July cool spell then the top ten hot November for most of us are all very 2009ish. 

The other factor leaning to 2009 is the shifting nature of this Niño and where it's forcing are, as was in Bastardi's writing. 

1987s Niño was a major east based canonical Niño. 2009 and this one fall in the strong, central/west based category in my opinion based on forcing. 

Liking the forecasting stuff @Black Hole. I'm still sure that I'd add two years to that blend. 1969 and 2009. Possibly a third in 2002-03.

Often, anytime we see Alaska struggling to stay cold, it often signals cold downstream here over the US, so the (first) analogs crashed on that part. 

Seeing enso start in earnest pulling a modoki-style 2009 shift is another big confirmation that we are probably shifting out of conventional Niño territory. I guess I'd take the pattern advertised in the blend you have, but retrograde it west due to NAO and other variables coupled with Niño. 

A lot of longer range mets are writing November off as a warm month, but our models and the Euro seem to disagree. The coldest GFS (18z) puts a monster snow down in the day 10-13 range. Not boring at all. 

Jaster is right. I don't think there is a pattern that keeps the Ozarks in winter all season like the one we have had develop over the last few weeks. We'll be under the brunt of every cold front and it looks like a good healthy amount of backdooring and draining off the plateau if the GLs and interior Appalachians holds the cold down. 

Verbatim, I get about 4 days of the next 14 above avg before it crashes again. 

Mixed precip returns showing up on radar north of Tulsa.

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

It's so beautiful in the Ozarks with a layer of snow on the ground @OKwx2k4  may be in for a treat this Winter.

Yeah. We may even see a taste of winter on the back end of this storm underway at the moment.

Also, the trees are just hitting their best colors in some areas.. This year has been a real taste of everything here as far as weather goes.

This is the first southwesterly-flow storm I've gotten in a long time. Thats very noteworthy as it indicates a major change in the long-term pattern here. 

I think winter 2023-24 will be a pretty special one for a lot of us as well. I think a lot of this group is going to be thrilled. 

Steady and heavier rainfall getting underway this morning. Rather different than yesterday's more warm and humid airmass.

50 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

Reading posts out there on other social media sites, it's interesting to see that there are still some in the classic strong nino camp while others vigorously disagree and say this is acting like a weaker nino. I suppose time will tell, but all the evidence I see continues to support that this nino will act more like a modoki and of a moderate to borderline strong strength. I'm not sure if I should go for an official winter outlook or not, but if I did it would probably look favorable for OK winter

Seeing more and more in the winter weather community, both amateur and pro, abandon the bigger Niño calls over the last few days, especially since seeing a PDO flip trying to get underway.

Among my favorites are Larry Cosgrove of WeatherAmerica and he's in my camp with a 2009-style winter with breaks. He's stated emphatically that it's not a super Niño style setup at all. I've held this since spring and it's seemed to hold up well. 

2 hours ago, sumweatherdude said:

Funny that, even in an El Nino year, they can't bring themselves to predict cooler than normal in the south.  

That's pretty wild. I agree. There's not much logic behind that. 

Not picking up a lot of rain in Eastern OK at the moment, but the wind has kicked it in gear.

Rain chances hovering around 30 percent thru tomorrow evening at the moment but after, the moisture will be overwhelming per modeling. 

19 hours ago, Tom said:

Mother Nature's blessings for the central CONUS...

That's an absolute blessing. Hoping Louisiana can get in on the moisture as we go forward as well. They're in significant drought. 

Really glad to see the warm spot forming out by the dateline. Would hope to see forcing follow it as we go through November. Beautiful.

On 10/3/2023 at 6:27 PM, jaster220 said:

The experts say peaking mid-winter as per usual. But I wouldn't mind if we were peeking at a peaking now either

I still hold that we will or are already seeing peak in 3.4. 1 is still higher, but at this time, the shift west has begun. Any additional gains in 3.4 are from this as it appears the subsurface is nearly depleted.

4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

2009-10 had 54.2" in Chicago, which is basically 150% of average.  1925-26, which was also a strong Nino by all indications, had 52.3".  Those 2 winters are definitely the best strong Nino winters for Chicago and it shows that a strong Nino can produce decent snowfall, but of course most strong Nino winters aren't very good and some are downright clunkers. 

Location of forcing is as much or more of a factor than total temperature number as well. A cooperative PDO, EPO and AO are all big factors to us folks west of Appalachia.

After the next 120 hours, we won't have any doubts about which continent will take the brunt if the cold this winter. What folks need to remember is that cold air doesn't move like warm air does without something to force it out.

All bets still on for hard cold this winter in my backyard. Especially Jan-Feb. 

26 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

I hope that sprawling impenetrable eastern high pressure isn't a recurring feature of this year's LRC..

If it becomes an extremely west based NAO block, the east won't have winter, but the central/interior eastern US will.

My fellow okies have covered all the points I came to write on for my area of the region. 

If ensemble trends are continued, the shot at the end of this month will bring early winter temps to half the state and possibly much earlier snow than normal. 

The pattern developing and retrograding over the US is how you set up real deal winter. 

1 hour ago, westMJim said:

Monday, October 15, 1984 Bronco Blizzard.

Mother Nature had an interesting plan for the 200th broadcast of Monday Night Football, and definitely wanted to challenge the Broncos and the Packers.  In attendance were 62,546 brave souls, who endured blizzard conditions.  The nation watched live as professional football players struggled to play the game while wind and snow wreaked havoc.  Fans had trouble seeing the players on the field.  Broadcasters did the best they could with their limited visibility as well.  The Broncos won the game by a final score of 17 to 14, with 14 of the Broncos’ points coming from their defense in the first minute of the game. The other three Denver points came on a crucial field goal in the first half from barefooted kicker, Rich Karlis. All of Green Bay’s points came in the second half.

By the time the game concluded, more than four inches of snow had accumulated on the field of Mile High Stadium.  Temperatures for the entire day had barely surpassed 30° F, approximately 30 degrees below average.  The storm had arrived earlier that day, but did not start to gain intensity until Monday night.  Winds gusted to more than 55 mph during the storm.  Snow totals from Monday until the storm concluded Tuesday evening ranged from 1 to 3 feet in the Denver area, with the higher amounts falling in the foothills just outside the city. 

The day before my birthday. How cool. I know a lot of football history but didn't know this one.

On 10/13/2023 at 1:31 PM, Black Hole said:

What is the BSR? At any rate, this is such a great pattern we are in. Wave after wave of cold northerly flow. As you noted, just wait till the southern branch really gets going and we can pair these cold shots with some moisture. Definitely some potential ahead if this is our winter pattern preview. 

Jaster covered the BSR pretty well. Just imagine, in modeling, seeing the US over the Bering Sea, then give it 6 weeks or so. You should see a shadow of the pattern repeat. 

It's why folks talk about hoping to see an Aleutian Low in late summer and fall. It means good winter. 

If one believes the BSR and its relation to our weather pattern here in the states, its literally a non-stop freight train of lows passing by every run. 

I'm actually becoming worried about how hard this may get after month's end and on out. 

This is a solid 4 day cold wave on tap here by October standards and as of right now, I'm on the back edge of where they'd phase at in a southern-branch phasing scenario. 

There's literally a 24 hour warm up and crashes right back down. Worth noting, for sure if you believe in patterning methodologies for later seasonal forecasting.