OKwx2k4

That's probably one of the best teaching write-ups on what makes a winter over the CONUS a top-ten. What is compelling is that it's actually been over 7 years since we've had a beneficial QBO, due to those two almost double positive cycles. I still don't know of a lot of conclusions as to why the cycle failed twice, but maybe they'll figure it out one day. I personally believe it is solar/geomagnetically related, but not sure.

If that happens, it'll be a legendary January here.

Yeah. It's just going to be a tough, swampy ride throughout the south-central region and up your way through the next few. I'm looking at it as having our "dog days" early.

They were strong, but nothing real nasty. Tons of rain. 1" per hour plus. My scion was a Toyota Puddle Jumper on my way to work. I think I just hydroplaned my way through it. Lol. To you folks who keep dropping hints about winter..... Ya'll keep enticing me but I'm trying to be good this year.

Heat indices are stupidly high tonight in areas that did not benefit from last evening's and this morning's storms.

Still rolling with the rainfall. I'll post 7 day total after this event is over.

This is true. A "classic" hallmarker of a Niño even down here is an early, cold autumn.

Rain winding down now. Appear to have picked up nearly 3 inches in the last 24 hours. Wow.

Now have showers moving across the state again overnight. Will be great if they can manage to cool things off at work tonight. Last night's rainfall wasn't excessive in total, but when it rains right now, it pours. Thankful to be out of drought risks.

Looking ahead, it looks like you'll be right on the cool/warm line for the next half-month. What is encouraging is where we have a massive eastern Pac warm pool developing. If I had to attribute anything to staving off wall-to-wall heat here in the CONUS, it would be this..... I have a ton of belief that heat will be hard to come by over the center of the US downstream of the 2023 incarnation of "The Blob". It was a huge influence on our weather in 2013-2015.

Over the next few days, going to see a good solid cool down taking shape over my state (OK). With it, looks like good and widespread rainfall is going to be in the works over the next 24 hours or so as well. Turning into a really beautiful summer here after a few solid rounds of pure nasty hot weather. I believe our pattern is influenced by two things pretty heavily at this time.... 1. El Niño. El Nino is definitely influencing our atmosphere over the central and Eastern US, however, the typical pattern have been slow to manifest due to an uncooperative N Pac AND lack of a Bermuda High upstream. 2. I believe that some of our increased precip over the central Plains and southern Plains, along with heightened severe weather this late spring and summer has been aided by Colorado going through its wettest winter in history. All that snow/cold stored there plus the added moisture, I believe can and has "seeded" storm systems out of CO. There were places recently still reporting snow OTG from last season and "pink snow", which is algae growing in snow. Add a Hudson Bay vortex at various times to pull Gulf moisture to match and voila. Drought buster.

Right! A foreign country just has to grab a bag of popcorn and watch what's already happening here, then scare us. Literally same playbook for 40 years now. Hopefully it only works on those who believe in "intellectual property". Lol.

You covered one of the great highlights of Oklahoma winter weather and it not usually in the totals. It's in the extreme ways our weather usually starts or how you can wake up here one morning with the sun shining in January at 60°F then 12 hours later, it's 14 degrees and snowing sideways with a -2°F wind-chill over a layer cake of precip modes resembling an ice sheet. Also, the lightning in a sleet storm is a different and beautiful color. It makes your heart race a bit. It's beautiful and severe all at one time. So yeah, a lot of my favorite snows or storms didn't set records in any way, it was HOW that 4 inches of winter precip got there that is wild.

Wow! I'm so happy for you all up there! It's so awesome seeing the beautiful green grass after these years of hard drought.

Radars looking alive over KS and NE this afternoon. Hoping everyone is enjoying their 4th! God Bless our Nation. I'm thankful every single day that I was fortunate enough to be born in the greatest nation on Earth.

It doesn't get a whole lot better than this for most of the eastern US. I doubt everyone will win, because it just never happens that way, but just, wow. Knowing where our pattern has evolved from in 45-60 days to now is remarkable. Andie looks to be the last holdout. She'll have one more good heat cycle to deal with before more lasting relief comes, then Autumn. I believe she still gets a break at the peak of TX summer, which will come as a blessing to her, while California has problems starting to develop again as ridging continues to try and set up over the lower west coast. 1965-66, the late 70s summer's and 2009 are still top-quality guidance going forward.

Awesome pattern setting up. Will do great in keeping major heat swatted down to our south and west as we go on towards prime or peak summer. Truly a blessing to see drought get another possible punch in the gut.

Just checked. My dewpoint topped out at 78 today. That's absolutely ridiculous.

Congrats to the folks receiving rainfall and cooler temperatures tonight. I know a few of us are looking forward to it. When I can see water in the air that is not rain or fog, it's too humid.

What I remember most about that year was the periodically super nice days spaced out in the middle of hot. Just enough that it was perfect. The bulk of the center of the country saw nice cool stretches. It was beautiful. If we check the GFS and Euro ensembles, that's what's being shown. Surprisingly, even the places that have experienced strong heatwaves (TX mostly) are only 1 degree or 2 above average since mid-May. That's pretty telling given the intensity of the hot spells.

All this heat now is absolutely worth it. I love this. It'll go July 09-ish on us after all. I'm one happy camper. There just aren't a lot of teleconnections right now that reinforce a huge ridging situation til summer's end. The TX ridge gets smashed, eventually, and goes where it belongs.....California. I've been relentlessly persistent on that part.

Looking like an extremely hot finish to this week. Yuk. Everyone has covered it pretty well. Heat ridges suck.

Yeah. It did, for a bit, but just the same, the Atlantic is going to go right back to sleep for what looks like the foreseeable future. It's still in suppress/shear mode.

The video is great. Those are excellent explanations for our unusual pattern. I have been confused as well on our pattern and why in a full El Nino we are struggling. It's pretty anomalous on a national scale, to say the least. Some stuff, no matter how hard you try or good you are, you can't call it.

Nasty hot weather for the next couple of days in Texas. Oklahoma and Arkansas look variable over the same span. Hoping that at things get really cranking with the heat, we get a good cold front right down the middle.