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SilverFallsAndrew

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Everything posted by SilverFallsAndrew

  1. SilverFallsAndrew
    I hiked up a mountain that is almost 5000' in early January 2014, there was only a few inches of snow at the top.
  2. SilverFallsAndrew
    Incredible. At 1350' Silver Falls recorded a 12/-2 day.
  3. SilverFallsAndrew
    2013-14 was pretty lame for snow here in the foothills. Had a 21/2 day with the December event and 23/13 with the February one, so from a cold perspective it definitely delivered the goods.
  4. SilverFallsAndrew
    Some ensemble noise towards the end of the run.
  5. SilverFallsAndrew
    Hope springs eternal in the hearts of the young.
  6. SilverFallsAndrew
    Temps dropping off pretty nicely tonight after a mild day. Down to 43.
  7. SilverFallsAndrew
    I am. I accept other people can come to different conclusions or feel I am showing my ignorance, but these are my real thoughts. I do think there is a great deal of uncertainty, but I have always enjoyed making predictions and these are mine. Weather is a hobby for me, one of many interests. I thought last winter would be front loaded, I was wrong, I did pretty well in 2017-18 with my forecasts, you win some you lose some. But it is fun to put something out there and see how it fares.
  8. SilverFallsAndrew
    I am interested to hear your thoughts on the upcoming winter.
  9. SilverFallsAndrew
    I just don't see a huge correlation, I think it's more one of those things where you see what you want to see when you look at it. Maybe this winter will make me a believer.
  10. SilverFallsAndrew
    Now if we could get this to happen...
  11. SilverFallsAndrew
    GFS is a notch west
  12. SilverFallsAndrew
    Pretty good. I was living in Silverton in November 2010, and drove up here a couple of times during that period. I would say the depth from what I can remember around the area I live was about 6", the park recorded a 26/18 and 31/16 day . November 2010 was better for snow. The park recorded 10.5" the 28-30th, and had a 32/28 day on the 27th, when I would imagine snow fell. Just given what happened with that event and that my location typically does a bit better for snow than the park I would conservatively estimate 12-18" fell 11/27-30/06.
  13. SilverFallsAndrew
    I admit. I gave up on the winter by mid-January.
  14. SilverFallsAndrew
    It is very nce. Gorgeous view of yellow cottonwoods and puffy clouds floating in a blue sky here outside the weather window. Had 5 deer walking the banks of the river about 20' away this morning.
  15. SilverFallsAndrew
    What has been one of the bigger surprises since I moved up to 1600' is how generally lame November has been over the last 8 years. We had a pretty decent snow in 2011, but since then the best we've done are some minor snow falls in 2014 and 15. Generally it is probably the closest cold season month we have to the climate of the valley floor. At least in that near decade long span. Historically it has definitely produced, but we are definitely more likely to see significant snow up here in March compared to November.
  16. SilverFallsAndrew
    The December 1990 event is unequivocally in the pantheon of great PNW arctic outbreaks, and the last one we've had that has been indisputably so. I would give almost anything to see a repeat. The level of CAA with both those blasts is something we have not seen since. The numbers are staggering, especially when one considers how far south the bitterly cold air made it. The snow wasn't as notable in Oregon, Salem only had an inch, Eugene had 3", but the cold was incredible. Highs of 16 at Eugene, 18 on back to back days at Salem, 12 at Silver Falls. Then the 2nd shot, which was definitely not as impressive down here, but still comparable to the 1998 event, Salem had a high of 24 on the 29th, 22 at PDX.
  17. SilverFallsAndrew
    I considered years like 85-86, 71-72 specifically, but ultimately I think we will diverge from those paths. 77-78 may be an possible anolog. My primaries are 2004-05, 2012-13, 1969-70. I really like the 1969-70 analog. That would be a wetter year. My secondary analogs would probably be 1959-60, 1980-81, 1977-78, 1985-86. I'm not a huge believer in considering solar. I think Pete Parsons at the Oregon Department of Agriculture has some good analogs, I would say I used somewhat similar methodology.
  18. SilverFallsAndrew
    I bet we see some negative departures this weekend.
  19. SilverFallsAndrew
    We all know there is a very good chance it mostly verifies. I do not mind being wrong though.
  20. SilverFallsAndrew
    I considered years like 85-86, 71-72 specifically, but ultimately I think we will diverge from those paths. 77-78 may be an possible anolog. My primaries are 2004-05, 2012-13, 1969-70. I really like the 1969-70 analog. My secondary analogs would probably be 1959-60, 1980-81, 1977-78, 1985-86. I'm not a huge believer in considering solar.
  21. SilverFallsAndrew
    I would encourage you to check out my forecast.
  22. SilverFallsAndrew
    For reference my forecast for last winter pretty much bombed.
  23. SilverFallsAndrew
    Skies are clearing now in Salem.
  24. SilverFallsAndrew
    I posted my winter forecast over in that thread. I think you will like it.
  25. SilverFallsAndrew
    Overall the 12z is OK.
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