hawkstwelve

12z GFS continues to go off the rails with totals, showing almost 30 inches here by next Tuesday. At least it's been consistently crazy, I guess?

Latest ICON looking a bit more "realistic" in it's snow totals, with much less 20+ inch readings. A portion of this is due to the neutering of the Thursday clipper but even the Sunday/Monday system is also quite a bit different. Still lots to iron out with this thing.

Latest NBM definitely painting a consistent picture of the heaviest totals being just north of my area. Although, this is a slight shift south when compared to a few runs ago. I'm secretly hoping that we get a huge snowstorm next Sunday/Monday so I don't end up having to fly out to Seattle. It's a long shot, but certainly still possible.

Fairly decent shift south on the 00z CMC. Move towards the GFS?

Snowfall mean on the EPS and GEFS continues its march upwards.

Light snow has been falling for most of this morning but hasn't amounted to much. An appetizer for what's to come?

Either the GFS is going to look like a fool (again) or it'll be right and we are looking at something potentially historic for some parts in the central CONUS and/or Midwest. Something tells me it's going to be the former but I will say, the accompanying 500mb pattern this time around has definitely piqued my interest. The jet streak is also looking particularly strong at the base of the trough. Those are things all ensembles agree upon, which gives the more outlandish solutions slightly more weight.

EPS mean continues to increase.

I mean, come on...

I'll be flying out to Seattle for work on 3/25 and coming back 3/29 so you can pretty safely bet there will be a large March snowstorm that will hit some time during that week. Heck, maybe even a couple. That's usually how it works for me.

The thought to take the murder of a girl as a chance to have a photo-op where you are smiling and acting like you just gave your autograph to a fan? The thought to write "I love you" to someone who you can't even spell their name right? Are those the thoughts that count? That picture is a great illustration of what's wrong with typical politicians. They try to take advantage of a horrible situation to make themselves look better only to look even more cringe worthy than if they had just left it alone. For all the desire to continue painting Trump as an "outsider" and "not a politician", it's becoming clear that couldn't be further from the truth.

As Rubus said, it's both sides. Neither side nominated the pinnacle of their party. At least, not the most sane/qualified/under-80 persons within their respective parties. I know it's easy (especially for you) to just point at the MAGA side and talk about how ridiculous they are. Which I agree, to a certain extent. But if you want to be perceived in any objective manner it's important to give equal scrutiny to the other side because they aren't really running like a well-oiled machine either.

We over-performed yesterday and hit 80 degrees. We ended up enjoying dinner on the back deck and went to the neighborhood park. It was quite pleasant out. Some models (GFS/NAM) have toyed with the idea of rain changing to snow on Thursday but I'm not buying it. The ECMWF has remained steadfast in showing just plain ol rain and until that changes, I'm not biting on any snow.

Woah... Kirk Cousins is headed to the Falcons. Kinda surprising given O'Connell said not too long ago that they were confident a deal would get done to keep him on the Vikings.

Looking forward to the mid 70s tomorrow, which is our average high in late May. The recent warmer weather has made me even more ready to turn the page on snow and look forward to spring and thunderstorm season. Unfortunately, this next bout of late spring warmth looks to be relatively short-lived as we head back down into the 40s after next weekend, which is still slightly above average for this time of year. Also looking increasingly dry with ensembles only showing a 10-20% chance for > 0.5 inch of rain. To sum all that up: the weather looks pretty dang boring for the foreseeable future.

The rebuttal was definitely cringe inducing, which is unfortunate because Katie Britt is actually a pretty good Senator with policy chops. She's even had some praises from Democrats with her ability to cross the aisle. From some articles I have read in the past, she is pretty well respected in the chamber. Unfortunately, whoever decided to sit her at a kitchen table didn't think that one all the way through and her delivery felt incredibly forced. Ultimately though, while it was certainly embarrassing, nobody will remember it within a couple weeks at most. At least she didn't have an awkward moment of trying to drink water in the middle of her speech (looking at you, Rubio).

Biden did better than expected, but the bar was pretty freaking low. It's obvious someone told him to just yell everything so it seems like he has energy. That's great for this speech and all, but it doesn't translate to the day-to-day Biden that the American people see. That's a problem. Ultimately Democrats will love it and it will certainly quell the noise about replacing him. It'll be touted as his best speech and rally the troops. That's probably his biggest accomplishment with tonight. Otherwise, Republicans will find legitimate issues with things and people will stay in their corners. And by the time November comes around, this will be but a distant memory.

So we can talk as much crap as we want about Trump and rake him through the coals but we should put the gloves on for Biden? That might fly with you, but that's not how I roll.

Biden should have plenty of ways to get his hands on some cocaine to make sure he looks energized tonight. In fact, he needs to look no further than his own son. Heck, maybe he'll find some in the cubbies within the White House again?

We have some ultra-MAGA family members who watch Fox News/Newsmax religiously. We've come to the conclusion they love to feel a part of something greater than everyone else. Like they know stuff everyone else doesn't know. They've told us "oh if you just knew the kinda stuff actually going on" multiple times. They were among those who believed Trump was going to enlist the military to arrest Nancy Pelosi and stay in power because the election was rigged and Trump had this massive dirt on Pelosi/the entire deep state that he was going to finally weaponize against them. Just crazy shit. Then when it obviously didn't happen and we go back to them asking "so what happened to the military coup?" they just write it off like "ha you expected the deep state to go down that easily?" I mean, don't get me wrong, I hate the government and think they are corrupt just as much as the next guy. But damn... that's just insane. Ultimately the media outlets know there are many people like that in America who just love to soak that type of crap up. Moderates? Sane people? Nah, no interest in them. Let's feed the fire of the extremes and watch the world burn.

Agree 100%. For all the hatred and division both political parties love to perpetuate in order to get votes for their side, the media is much worse. They love having everyone at eachothers throats because it sells. Who cares if it's slowly eroding our national identity and common purpose - we need more people to watch our entirely pointless 24-hour news cycle! More death, more fights, more endlessly hyperbolic rhetoric!

That apocalyptic rhetoric has already begun in earnest. I saw a clip of Nicole Wallace on MSNBC last night saying that "there is something so heavy about covering what could be the last election" in America and in that same breath she said that it wasn't hyperbolic to talk like that. And we're still 8 months out from election day. It's only going to get worse from here.

Officially a Biden-Trump rematch. Congrats America. You turned down a candidate who was more sane, more qualified, more normal, and who didn't belong in the nursing home in exchange for two candidates that supposedly 70% of America didn't want to see run again. You proved that our primary system is broken and that we will soon be run by either someone who is clearly long past the start of his mental decline or someone who has a good shot at becoming a felon if he can't run out the clock before the election. A sad fucking day for anyone wanting to return to any sense of normalcy and decency. Instead, we get four more years of chaos. Well done. We deserve whatever shit comes our way.

Looks like almost 20% of the Democrat primary vote in Minnesota will go to "uncommitted". I guess MN is now in play for Republicans come November.

Haven't watched a single time, except when I see Joy Reid's insane clips every now and again. But you already knew that, didn't you.