snow_wizard

Then the Seattle NWS was high on almost every event. Just impossible to nail it down here.

It happens all the time with rain too. People just notice way more when it's snow.

Love your honesty. Thankfully I'm just about angered out over this. I have had days where I have literally not gone five minutes without thinking about how bad our luck has been. I think the thing that has really screwed us is the Arctic fronts have all been slow to force the cold air over us. In almost EVERY CASE WHERE WE HAD A GOOD SHOT THE COLD JUST DIDN'T ARRIVE IN TIME for the precip to be snow. The day I was putting up my Christmas lights in pouring down 38 degree rain comes to mind. We do well when the Arctic air screams in like it did in November 2010.

Nice to see this run put the blocking back over Alaska. Looking at the past history of this type of winter another cold period is reasonably likely.

Lake Meridian is totally frozen over now and walkable in some places. The first time I've seen more than just a tiny fraction of the lake ice covered since I've lived here. Only one freezing max temp so far this season and only 2 lows below 20. On the other hand 25 sub 40 max temps and many lows below 25. This just goes to illustrate why I have always championed January cold waves. Even a low tier one like this can really do a number. No doubt this cold wave is in the minority for being major enough to freeze a major lake, but leave us with almost no snow. I really hope this is the low solar coming home to roost. If so these events could be a lot more common in coming winters. No question the snow situation has to even out over time.

At least I don't have to worry about that problem.

The low level cold is very impressive right now. Cloudy skies and yet solidly below freezing here thanks to seepage of cold air from Central WA. Pretty unusual to have such a cold reserve to tap into.

I think the chances are 60% or higher we will have another round of cold. We need some MJO forcing or something to change the details a bit. The ECMWF is looking good for a decent / progressive MJO wave so you never know. Kind of funny that an hour ago I was sure I wouldn't post again until spring. I really have conflicting feelings going on right now.

Thanks!

I'll try. I have been perpetually angry for pretty much the entire month, but it's hard to ignore how profoundly different this is than anything we have had in decades. The thought of not getting a decent snow before this winter is over D**n near makes me ill though.

We have sure had a boat load of cold so far. I wish I had bought a snow making machine.

Yeah...I think I need a sure thing. I have used up my lifetime allotment of disappointment. Central WA actually has fantastic snowy winters.

A cold outcome for week two is certainly on the table right now. The CPC has been going with pretty cold colors for the NW.

1909 and 1950 were supposedly the 2 most spectacular minus PNA cold waves of the 20th century. Remarkable that records were broken from both of those with a totally different type of pattern.

Nice to see they are recording snow at PDX again.

I have to comment on the PDX temps today. The coldest Jan low since 1963, record broken from 1950, -21 departure. Wow! As jealous as I am I have to tip my hat to that.

Thanks! One thing I forgot to add about how bad I've gotten... It has gotten to the point where every time there's a legitimate threat of snow in the forecast I get so worked up I have to take a valium just to keep from bouncing off the walls. Then of course when it falls through I go through a days long depression. A horrible and vicious cycle I wouldn't wish on anyone. This climate is insidious in its own way. I guess I just want everyone to know this goes way beyond feeling sorry for myself.

Amazing how it manages to snow everywhere except here.

I knew you guys were going to score this winter. It had suppressed jet written all over it.

It is with a certain degree of sadness that I write this. To get right down to it, I’m going to have to stay away from the forum for a while. There are a number of reasons for this, with the main one being I simply can’t take the aggravation of it on top of the endless parade of disappointment being dealt to this area by Mother Nature. I really can’t decide if the understandable complaining of the people from the Seattle area or the understandable happiness of the people from the places that have gotten snow bothers me more. One thing for sure is the combination on top of my deep and growing disillusionment of the incredible snow drought this area is in has gotten to the point of being unbearable. To date this has been an extraordinarily cold winter and I really doubt anywhere north of the 45th parallel has been able to equal the epic fail 1.2 inches of snow I have had. Besides that this location has been unable to record even a two inch snowfall since January 2012. Besides all of that I am very ashamed of how I acted the last time I posted, which was a day before another one of the many epic failures this winter. I stand behind the forecast I made that day (and in fact it verified for a small area) given the data that was available, but my attitude was awful and rather shrill. The fact is this climate has been slowly stripping away my sanity for quite some time now. If anything this winter has made me hate it more than I already did. The fact that people have still been left out after nearly 6 weeks of continuous cold is very irksome. At any rate I’m done posting until spring. I might reconsider in the extremely unlikely event a significant snowfall arrives at our doorstep sometime later in the winter. I simply can’t take the constant reminder of how horribly this area has performed. I’ve pretty much resigned myself to the fact I won’t see a good snowfall again until I am finally able to move, which thankfully my wife understands is essential for my well being. I guess Tim will have free reign to smash everyone’s hopes on future events now. It’s really a shame to have the big picture looking so much better, but not be able to take part in the fun. I might still do an occasional post on past events.

I'll have to see it to believe for Southern OR Coast.

I have run through this scenario a thousand times and it all looks good. So far it's going exactly as planned. The current temp of 36 is fine for being in the SW wind phase of this. Thankfully the mesoscale models all agree the low center goes just to the east of this area. We always do better on the back side of a low in cases like this.

At this point...you bet it would. Our luck has been colossally bad so far this season.

Yeah...better than the 18z. A tiny bit more south and this could be pretty good here. Still a high chance there will be surprises for King County in general.

Why is it concerning? It's dead on what we want.