TT-SEA

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Hottest EPS maps will be quoted in 3….2….

Do you like cold/wet maps??   I didn't know that.  You only talk about it being cold and wet forever.

12Z EPS was noticeably cooler than its 00Z run.   I usually post the entire loop of the EPS.   I just posted the white hot ECMWF map this morning to needle Andrew.  

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yikes. Please don't disown your own family. 

But if the kids pay for their own cars they don't count as yours, even if they live with you. 

My sons don't live here any longer.   And they do pay for their own cars.   But the titles and insurance are in my name.

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A true man of the people. Only 5 cars! 

1 per adult person!   All pieces of sh*t.

I spied 191,000 miles there.   Our Expedition has the exact same mileage.    We have 5 cars between 4 drivers (my wife and I and two sons) and all of them have 100,000+ miles.   We never buy new.   I am a disappointment to the real 1%ers like @Deweydogand @MossMan!

Our old Expedition is only used for hauling the boat now so we have to keep it around.

12Z EPS looks flatter/cooler around day 10 the operational. 

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That will be a grave disappointment to folx on the PDX FB weather groups. 

No offshore flow.   Just pleasantly warm and sunny with onshore flow keeping things in check.   

Not sure if the ridge is about to break down or amplify even more at the end of the 12Z ECMWF run.     

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Perfect heat dome. Maybe in the mid 100s if we are lucky. 

Actually only shows 70s and low 80s. 

12Z ECMWF 850mb temps are white hot over western OR all the way out at day 10.  

ECMWF comes out in chunks now since the upgrade with the continental US map always finishing way faster than the others.   So we can get sneak preview every morning while waiting for the large scale North American map to update.

12Z ECMWF still looks quite lovely at day 10.

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

smashing records over here.  .14" so far on the day

Well that is huge considering what you said earlier about living in a very dry climate.     That is 1% of your annual average in just one morning.  

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

No, let’s just get a whole month’s rainfall out of the way in a couple days as often as we can Then we’re good on rain and it can be hot and sunny the rest of the time

Nature is going to do what nature is going to do.    It wouldn't surprise me if that is sort of how it plays out.   Seems like you need to take this up with God.  

2 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

It's almost like total accumulated precipitation isn't the only variable that determines drought in the PNW. 2015 had near normal precipitation through the first 5 months of the year and I remember the region having a couple water issues that summer. And maybe if the spring rains stopped early next week and it was near to above average temperatures for the rest of the summer we'd see some of those same issues arise. Maybe rainy days serve multiple purposes...

But it is true, that currently in terms of pure rainfall we are in a much better situation than last spring.

2022 is the most extreme example of that.   It could not have been wetter through mid June and still ended up being a drought/fire mess. 

On the flip side is 2019 with a very dry spring and then a green summer with no smoke.  

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yep. But the overall theme is clear. OR has been MUCH wetter than WA so far this year.

And there should not be any real drought concerns for the vast majority of the PNW after Tuesday.

Except for @Port Angeles Foothiller backyard of course!   He might have put up a transparent dome over his property and not telling us.  

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Striking. Though as Tim has pointed out in many different ways, there are some issues with some of the Seattle area numbers.

HQM looks drier than normal there... but actual data shows +3.69 inches for the year.  

I don't believe anything for King County.   SEA WFO and Snoqualmie Falls/North Bend are right around normal for the year with no missing data.   

I really think the WRCC maps always lean drier than reality because it incorporates too many stations with data issues.   And missing data for rainfall always skews things drier than reality.  

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

After a drier than normal April, the region is anything, but water logged, but apparently you have no idea what to do on a wet day.

The numbers say western OR and SW WA are waterlogged this year and particularly now after this recent major rain event.  

But that is just a logical view based on actual stats...and not a drought paranoia PTSD view.   

12Z GFS looks much drier next week than the 06Z run.

Blessings for a water-logged region!  

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Let's hope. Other Nino to Nina years like 2010, 1998, and 1983 all did the 60" business here.

But honestly I'd love to break through that glass ceiling and just go straight for 70", Andrew. 

A warmer world is also wetter! 

50 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I’m at 8.18” on the year. A minus 6” departure, but 4” more than this time last year. Keep telling me I’m crazy tho and not in drought.

So... I checked out Sequim up there.    Sequim is actually +0.05 for the year.   Right in line with UIL and not even drier than normal. 

It appears the extreme drought is isolated to only your backyard.   Because its almost perfectly normal where you work and farther to your west at UIL.   

Lets do a summary since its a rainy Sunday morning with not much else to do! 

2024 departures:

BLI   +0.91

UIL   -0.09

HQM +3.69

SEA WFO -0.32

SEA   -3.65 (missing data)

OLM  -0.32

PDX  +4.01

SLE  +4.94

EUG  +4.24

AST  +5.24

Those PDX NWS area anomalies are impressive.  

SEA NWS area is closer to normal overall... but SEA really stands out as an outlier particularly given SEA WFO is very close to normal.

The talk of it being extremely dry is a false narrative when looking at the actual numbers. 

Even in the city of Seattle there are discrepancies.   

SEA is -3.65 on the year and missing a couple rainy days... but SEA WFO is essentially right at normal for 2024.  

And Boeing Field definitely has rainfall sensor issues.    SEA has had 13.52 inches for the year (missing data) and SEA WFO on the other side of BFI is at 15.24 inches.   But somehow BFI has only recorded 7.4 inches right in between those stations.   Clearly not right. 

But that would help paint a catastrophic red on the anomaly map over Seattle which takes into account all stations and add to the drought paranoia that runs wild on here.  

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

-1" is a good bit when you don't average but about 16" of water equivalent a year

Yeah... not really.   And won't even be that by the middle of the week.  

One more note... Quillayute (KUIL) on the Olympic Peninsula is at 45.81 inches of rain for the year.   Normal is 45.90 inches.    Doesn't get much more normal than that.  

6 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I’m at 8.18” on the year. A minus 6” departure, but 4” more than this time last year. Keep telling me I’m crazy tho and not in drought.

I have no idea what happens up there in your tiny little area deep in the rain shadow.   And never said anything about that area.

But Bellingham has been wetter than normal for the water year and for 2024 so far.    Not exactly a dire drought situation up there either.   

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

its like you guys don't even think places east of the cascades exist

 

on that note, finally some light rain here

Well Spokane is only about an inch below normal for the water year and the year.

And the ECMWF shows much of that deficit being made up in the next couple of days.   Prayers to you on essentially normal precip for the year.