TT-SEA

No... I just watched it again and gleaned some more important information about a cold Midwest. I think this is this is very meaningful to our forecast. Big picture Matt... big picture.

What is his track record??? Can we count on this forecast? Thankfully he did not mention Seattle. I am thinking this means a warm conveyor belt situation with Seattle on the warm, dry side. I am going with that. Given his very cold and snowy forecast for Minnesota and North Dakota and Wiscooooooooosin... I think we are looking at a western ridge / Midwest trough situation in 2016-17. Basically agreeing with Bastardi. This is sort of how I imagine some people on here when it comes to cold and snow. Winter is coming... winter is coming. Going to be a lot of snow. Going to be a lot of snow.

80 here... gorgeous day. We had a little east wind this morning as well.

Midwest and East are due for some longer duration troughing.

Might slow down a little once teams have film on Wentz... he has been insanely good.

Has to be tough for Chip Kelly to watch the Eagles thriving now with a great rookie QB while he is sitting in SF with Blaine Gabbert and losing.

Really looking like a weak Nino in the eastern half of the ENSO region... more so in the last couple weeks. http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssta_large.gif Warming across the entire ENSO region continues... http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssttrend_007d_large.gif

Ironically it looks like another month that has deep troughing early on... July, August, and September all had the coldest anomalies of the month in the first week at SEA.

The +8 stands from yesterday... no midnight low. SEA is now at -0.4 for the month and might be right about normal after tomorrow. WFO SEA is tracking well with SEA at -0.5... while Bellingham is up to +0.7 now.

I think Tuesday and Wednesday and probably Thursday will be warmer than Jim is thinking... full sunshine all 3 afternoons. No big marine push.

Lake Sammamish area is in a great location. Always warmer there. It was 80 on our very reliable Expedition thermometer when we launched the boat. And it felt all of 80 there.

No 73 tomorrow??

GFS MOS has an incredible crash from 73 to 71 between Monday and Tuesday.

None of them are needed to destroy the Bears.

Nice +8 at SEA today... largest departure from normal for the month.

Good contrail day... Sun angle still good enough to get a little burnt out there... water was great for swimming as well. Around 70 depending on the location.

Still an awesome time.

Feels like summer on Lake Sammamish right now. Lake is packed too.

STOP HOLDING. Just stop.

Nice start for the Seahawks! Vikings might be the team to beat in the NFC... they dismantled Carolina today in Charlotte. Vikings lose their star QB and RB and have actually gotten better.

So 50/50 huh? You really do know something. You can't be wrong.

Interesting pattern for early October if it comes close to verifying. http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls20/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls20-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-gGAtmH.png

Gorgeous day. Thinking about forgetting the Seahawks game and taking the boat out with the kids.

Then we should bet.

12Z GFS operational still has almost no ensemble support. http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png