richard mann

(.. cross-reference.) More where regarding the patterning more general this winter season. http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1152-slipt-flow/?p=110031

- .. First, per my view, a "Spit Flow" is merely the product of a more radical transition where looking at either whether or both, the general expansion of colder air mass moving and spreading more southward and more to its general regress back north—(These two ideas both looked at together occurring more "inner-seasonally" and regularly. Each taking about two weeks.)—or, where looking at the slowed movement and pace of colder air more eastward where shifting to a pace more stepped up or assertive, or vice-versa. This, with either one of these transitions leading to a more radical steering of the main flow of colder air mass:=causing it to "cut off" and separate from the one previously having been established. — This can be shown fairly easily. .. If you look at what I'd suggested might happen more at the time where looking at colder air's both more latitudinal and longitudinal potential both movement and distribution wise back on the 26th of Dec.@, .. account for the fact that is has taken place—with checking the link here just below—this, together with what I've suggested further more recently on the 8th of Jan. @, … you'll see that all of this will correlate with what I've suggested above. http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/Portal Ohio/e3.html#GOES {.. Close the main "Welcome" overlay, along with the main "menu" just above the date adjustment element. Then within that element move back to the 25th of Dec. with clicking on main left-pointing double arrow, .. click on the "minus" (reduce image size.) optional upper right, .. move the image for the 25th of Dec. to the right, centering it to a view more Pan Pacific, .. then click on the main right pointing, "forward" arrow, to animate all of the daily images for all dates through to nearer to the present. And then finally, "run" these images again—as with the first time through the images had to load in.} .. With this, with looking at this winter season so far certainly, we've had plenty of cold air near enough upstream either to the NW or WNW and where looking at its main source regions and areas, or either, more West, out over the Pacific and having moved there from further West or WNW, … set together with main moisture generation South with the "Nino", .. to have provided for plenty of more basic differentiation between the two, and so in turn the level of definition that we've been seeing main pattern-wise. Note more in particularly with checking through the main images suggested pointed to above, that with colder air's .. more initial slowing from Dec. 25th through to the end of the year, while at the same time having been spreading daily more south, … ".. Later on the 24th, earlier on the 25th of Dec. began to move and spread more southward. This with its being set to continue to do so daily more through to the 8th of January or so. / [While at the same time] being set to continue its current slower movement more eastward for the next four or five days through to just before the beginning of the New Year." - Posted on the 26th of Dec. … that it had been moving more meridionally (directly) south. This, with then, where cold air movement had been transitioning to a gradually more stepped up pace eastward more longitudinally beginning with the New Year, some of the cold having moved more south's having been left to its own; by degrees "cut off" from the main track and more general flow of cold, again, moving gradually but steadily more strongly eastward. General propensity of movement (momentum.) where looking at each more specific mass of colder air, along together with topography, also being general considerations / having been factors here. This general scenario's described here just above working to "Spilt" the "flow" by degrees, ... through until the point more where main and broader cold had begun to "regress" more northward daily, while also at the same time having begun to slow its pace east again, over the 8th and 9th where looked at more together. …. Which will, where looking more forward, work to generate a more meridional type of patterning again. " .. should begin to regress back more northward gradually and progressively, daily more, from this point forward … while … on the 9th of January, begin to move gradually but steadily more slowly east." - Posted on the 8th of Jan.. $ .. To answer your question above, .. "This" type of patterning and scenario / These types of transitions, .. should repeat somewhat. .. Working to generate some somewhat similar types of "Spilt Flow", and patterning more.

.. Not a chance.

March 5th. ...

- From "Cliff Mass's" (Prof. Atmospheric Science's at University of Washington.) Blog, entry for Jan. 8th, 2016. Split Personality: The Future of Winter 2016 over the West Coast of North America http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/01/split-personality-future-of-winter-2016.html

- .. Main colder air should continue to move more assertively east through Saturday. Continuing to support the current stronger succession of systems reaching us here in the west. http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907 ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis.) http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/sat.shtml

(.. cross-reference.) http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1133-winter-2015-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=108805

- With having been moving and spreading daily progressively more southward since the 25th of December, main colder air mass looked at more across the broad from east to west (fuller Northern Hemispheric scope), should begin to regress back more northward gradually and progressively, daily more, from this point forward through the 21st of January. This more latitudinal distribution of colder air mass looked at more broadly while at the same time where looked at more longitudinally, cold air being caused to, on the 9th of January, begin to move gradually but steadily more slowly east, through the 20th of January or so before beginning to move more assertively east again. No "Numerical Wx-forecast Models" have been consulted where considering the generation of the broader outlook included above as part of this post.

More "Mount Washington" facts might be a good tack.

- .. With colder air mass set to continue to move and spread steadily more southward through the 8th of Jan. before beginning to regress back more northward, this while also to pick up its pace more eastward for the next 8 or 9 days—more in particularly, steadily and progressively more from the 2nd of Jan. forward through the 9th or 10th, .. whatever main precipitation moisture should be a directed more streamlined and in from out over the Pacific, steadily more southward through the 8th. @ .. With some potential for precip. on the 3rd and 4th of Jan., the most likely timeframe for precipitation should be from the 7th through 10th or 11th, .. with more significant precip. being more likely more from the 8th forward, on the 9th and 10th, once colder air has both begun to regress back more north while also having been slowing its pace more eastward later on the 9th. — Main patterning beginning to shift from generally more zonal to increasingly more meridional on the 9th.

- "Earth Now" Project's .. "November 2015 Climate Digest". … (posted / put out, on Dec. 21st.) http://sphere.ssec.wisc.edu/november-2015-climate-digest/ http://sphere.ssec.wisc.edu/

- Think so. ? http://weather.unisys.com/upper air/ua hem.php?plot=n3&inv=0&t=cur http://weather.unisys.com/upper air/ua hem.php?plot=n5&inv=0&t=cur http://weather.unisys.com/upper air/ua hem.php?plot=n8&inv=0&t=cur .. The farthest I'll go where looking at the idea and venture, is to say things may be leaning toward .. a "little" better, where considering it.

(.. cross-reference.) http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1133-winter-2015-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/

(.. cross-reference.) http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1133-winter-2015-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/

(This thread follows in line with one similar, covering the same idea where looking at this past fall. @) .. Later on the 24th, earlier on the 25th of Dec., and following its general regress more northward since the Dec. 12th, main cold air mass looked as a whole, more fully across the board, east to west across the fuller Northern hemisphere, began to move and spread more southward. This with its being set to continue to do so daily more through to the 8th of January or so. http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/view/#GOES This general expansion of colder air south, with at the same time where looked at more longitudinally during this same period, main cold air's being set to continue its current slower movement more eastward for the next four or five days through to just before the beginning of the New Year, before beginning to step up its pace east gradually but steadily, daily more through the 9th of January. No "Numerical Wx-forecast Models" have been consulted where considering the generation of the broader outlook included above as part of this post.

.. Synonymous with its at the same time fuller North "declination". ...

- Right. And then where looking ahead a bit further, on the 26th main cold looked at move over-all starts to move south again setting up the potential for some main moisture's being steered more toward where you are and east of you again. — Main patterning certainly looking at least currently, to be shaping up pretty well for some good rain and snow. Both north and south. http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html

- .. A general averaging of the precip. accumulated at the locations of the two main "personal" Weather Stations near to where I am uploading data to "Weather Underground", round out to about 6 ins. for from last Friday the 18th, through yesterday, the 21st. Otherwise, .. So what's the main source of the chart here below that you've posted Chris. ?

(.. cross-reference.) http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/609-approaching-pattern-discussion/?p=100120

- With the degree of more general expansion of colder air southward looked at more broadly more seasonally at this point, even though cold air mass looked at across the board more latitudinally more inner-seasonally is currently in general regress (retraction mode) @, .. main moisture generated through the tropics and subtropics is finally beginning to be trapped more southward more substantially, .. having lead to a more substantial generation of precipitation south of the OR / CA border. 1512 2012-2121z 3-hrly satsfc na-ep.gif (a gif loop.) — Not a more typical type of El Nino to this point looked at more seasonally, much of the generation of main moisture the result of warmer SSTs nearer the equator, has been being steered more eastward. This with the main moisture reaching the West, if generated to some extent more directly south through the lower latitudes, appearing to be taking the long way around, first moving more westward, then north, then back more eastward. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/epac/images/mosaic20151220T220000.gif http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/global2/images/mosaic20151220T220000.gif Source: the CIMSS's MIMIC-TPW site-page. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/global2/main.html http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.12.21.2015.gif

.. We're getting at good drenching rain here where I am. First in a "while". ... — Started this mid-afternoon - Friday, and hasn't quit. At 1am, the average showing where looking at a few different local "personal" weather-station uploading data to "Weather Underground", is about a 1/4 inch since midnight, with about 2 1/4 inches yesterday. Climatology: http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?capara+nca — We get quite a bit of rain here normally, with the two different stronger orographic challenges presented incoming systems, both south and westward facing. @

An hour and a half earlier. (Or is that timestamp not PST. Whatever.) .. For 00z in any case here below. The main GOES-W image is "torn", incomplete, if still showing from about 20-25° Lat. N. northward. But, or if with then checking the new "Himawari" Satellite (having recently replaced "MTSAT", covering and where considering the next main sector West.), image for the same time, its showing the main low along with connected system pretty well. http://www.fvalk.com/images/Day image/GOES-10-0000.jpg http://www.fvalk.com/images/Day image/HIM-0000.jpg (Both of these, updating daily.) @

"Nino" big snow north. Interesting. I wonder what the record both shows, and is more, even further back, where looking at this idea. — "Interesting"... just as long as it doesn't rob "too much" main moisture from where we need it here more south, leastwise. That is. (Of course.)

- .. A balmy 44° here where I am more south—near what could certainly be looked at as the southernmost extent of the greater PNW. 48 ... in Chico, in the valley below. "Feels" like a decent "potential snow year" here. We here at this elevation and locale (Ridgeland foothills, the town of Paradise setting at about 1750 ft. generally.), get snow only about every 3 or 4 years. Sometimes as narrow as 2.

So with this that you've said above a as basic backdrop, ... What's your sense, of what Jan. 5th might look like. ? "Mat". .. Have any. ?