Phil

Legit classic +PDO look in the NPAC now. Strong GOA vortex + boreal winter re-emergence = this: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

Holy smokes. Could the PV actually get taken down by Thanksgiving? http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa.png

Yeah, I like the west-based -NAO look. Complete reversal relative to the last few winters, which had a vortex there.

Fantastic work. Hope you're on the money. I really like how both of your analog aggregates are similar (from a macroscale standpoint). I always like to see that sort of homogeneity between splicing/timeseries.

FYP A swamp so swampy not even the Donald can drain it.

You nervous? Wouldn't shock me if there was a connection between tidal forcing and seismic activity. Would require resonant amplification, though.

This super-moon is so super I think it's inhibiting radiational cooling. Apparently the closest approach since 1948.

Nice! Makes two of us now. What station do you have?

Flat Aleutian ridging = conduit to +EPO/westerly flow and a complete lack of a SE ridge. Need something more than this. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-11/E0E8B5E7-870A-4D8D-8558-2EFE605BD18D_zpskvqgdxxx.gif

This is a classic example of boreal winter re-emergence. Last winter's +PDO/cold pool is manifesting again at the surface thanks to the subsurface profile. Plenty of literature on this. Basically, the extratropical upper ocean mixing layer(s) deepens during the cold season as the upper oceans become more kinetically disturbed, hence the subsurface profile reflects more coherently at the sea surface. Note the change here over the last 7 days: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

Oh, and the PDO spike in October couldn't possibly have resulted from a +PNA, Aleutian Low pattern. The old PNA formula never lies. Must've just been a fluke.

All good signs for winter, though. Need that +PNA/flat ridge as strong as possible now to score in January.

PDO is really spiking. Almost back to where it was in Spring. Daily values are over +2 now. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-11/5DE6F974-96F1-4E8E-8D43-2EAFAD87084B_zpsx3qgtxmj.jpg

My apologies. I've been swamped with work lately.

Made it down to 26.2 this morning. Growing season is definitely finished now. Currently 59.6/18. Haven't seen a dewpoint in the teens since last March I think.

Those NPAC SSTAs are tanking. Should see a spike in the November PDO. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

FWIW, here'a 1996/97. Started out with the weak PV but strengthened to record breaking levels later in the winter/into the spring. That was a -QBO winter w/ a developing Niño cell, though, so perhaps the progression is different this go around. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-11/CCEDCE5D-0E44-4C82-94BD-6E965B266FB5_zpsoqeayz1g.jpg

Yeah, though one of those was a Niño and both lacked strong autumnal polar blocking. We're pretty far removed from the 1950s boundary state.

Boom. Haven't seen the PV start out this pathetically since at least 1996/97. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa.png

Interesting to note that 1960s and 1980s years have made up close to 70% of the listed analogs since September. Though the CPC list only goes up to 2009.

Finally some (modified) polar air seeps into North America. That's a start!

You don't think shifting that SSTA profile southward by approximately 10 degrees would result in a strong +PDO reading? What are you seeing that I'm missing? I could run the numbers myself, I guess.

An extremely powerful cold front and microburst struck here last winter, on February 24th. A few areas experienced gusts at/above 80-100mph within "burst swaths". I ran into the basement upon hearing the huge roar in the distance, so I didn't catch the worst of it. Wimp.

Post-frontal snow squall last winter. Dropped a quick 1/2" within 10 minutes. Winds were 30-40mph during the squall, but increased to 40-55mph after the squall.