Phil

Yeah, bias has been ~ 2-3 degrees too warm in the west, centered over the Intermountain region. Even accounting for that, both the 500mb and sfc temperatures are higher/warmer than average. Basically the GOA vortex regime begins to degrade, which throws a western ridge up as a discontinuous retrogression begins. Might put a ridge back in the GOA when it's all said and done?

Some of the members do retrograde the GOA vortex enough to pop a ridge just offshore, but most members keep the NPAC troughy overall.

New Euro weeklies are a toaster bath for the second half of October. Between +5 and +8 at the surface over the western 2/3rds of the country. Meanwhile, November flips cold over most of the US with a few solid EPO shots down the lee of the Rockies.

Makes me sick to my stomach. Just barely misses blasting the Mid Atlantic and Northeast on its way up, too.

Oh no, the loop doesn't complete! Going back for a third landfall? Hopefully just the goofus being its goofy self.

Lol GFS w/ Matthew. Makes landfall as a major, loops back out, then tries to make another landfall as a major in the same region.

And too warm at every other station. Just joshing, Tim.

I'm leaning towards a quick right hook before it gets here. I'm worried about the Georgia Isles, though. That area is like a second home to me.

Notable similarities to 2010 on the latest modeling. Keeps trending stronger with the polar blocking as well.

Getting worried about the Georgia Isles. That area is dear to my heart like nowhere else.

Yeah, I think in a -ENSO/+QBO, between 120E and 150E is ideal. Too much IO/EPAC risks a GOA trough, too much WPAC risks a big ridge.

Dropped to 52.4F this morning under a thick fog. Could smell the autumn leaves. Appears to be an unstable layer above ~5kft, given the mini towers going up. Temperatures in the upper 60s currently, which wouldn't suggest any surface based instability.

Interesting to note, if the modeling verifies over the next 7+ days, the stratPV will be the weakest in recorded history to open October in a -ENSO/+QBO year. Huge departure from the last several autumns, where the stratPV would go bonkers early and fully couple with/dominate the polar tropospheric circulation.

Looks like +QBO analogs continue to dominate on the CPC superensemble aggregate. That's a good sign for the west, given climo for said years from November-March. If this were a -QBO year, I'd have thrown in the towel, lol.

Well, the November Arctic blast could center over the Central US, or I could be wrong completely. I'm not sure about the specifics as of yet.

Why do you say that? I think January will feature the strongest NPAC and/or polar blocking of the entire cold season. I could be wrong, obviously.

I'm still thinking normalish overall. I saw the NPAC vortex pattern coming, but it's turning out stronger than I was anticipating.

I also think there's a good chance November features exactly the opposite pattern over the NPAC, with an early season Arctic outbreak over the US. Exactly where is TBD.

Once the ensembles start hinting at large scale changes w/ some agreement, I'll jump on board. I think that'll have to wait a good 20-25 days, though.

Based on a single clown range GFS run? I'm looking for a retrogression or bifurcation of that jet max

Looks like it retrogrades back offshore thereafter, though. I just think the underlying trough axis is poor. I think you guys want a ridge exactly where that vortex is.

Do you usually need more of a NW component for that? Given the mild nights that'd result? The GFS looks cooler than average during the day, warmer than average at night.

I don't think the 00z ensembles are out. Verbatim the 00z GFS operational is still relatively mild at the surface until the clown range. Honestly, until that GOA vortex retrogrades and/or bifurcates, I think it'll be difficult to score any legitimately cool airmasses up there.

Wow, 850mb temps of 13-18C+ on roughy 40% of those members, unless I'm reading it wrong. Need to get rid of that GOA vortex.