Phil

Right now, I'm getting a huge mixed bag in regards to potential analog years. Focusing mostly on -ENSO/+QBO leanings, weighted for solar forcing and general SSTA homogeneity. Years since 1950 that fit neutral/negative ENSO/+QBO50mb, without factoring in solar/PDO et al, include 2013/14, 2010/11, 2008/09, 1999/00, 1995/96, 1990/91, 1985/86, 1983/84, 1980/81, 1978/79, 1975/76, 1973-74, 1971/72, 1966/67, 1964/65, 1961/62, 1959/60, and 1955/56. Of these potential analog years, weighting them for AAM balance, solar/strat coherence, and ENSO/PDO amplitude leaves us with 2013/14, 2010/11, 2008/09, 1995/96, 1985/86, 1980/81, 1978/79, 1961/62, and 1959/60. For now, my preferred analog years are 2010/11, 2008/09, 1995/96, 1980/81, 1978/79, and 1959/60, and 1942/43.

There's a strong correlation between the July-January IOD and EPO sign, especially when tuning for ENSO/QBO/solar. Then again, the IOD and QBO are often synchronized anyway given the QBO effect on tropical convection, so really ENSO/solar provide more in the way of destructive interference.

That's not my prediction, FWIW. If there's one thing seasonal models struggle with, it's large scale regime change. Modeling refused to terminate the -PDO/-PNA cell in 2014, and kept trying to bring it back for 2015. I personally expected the PDO/PNA cell to flip and remain in a positive state through the entirety 2015, even without the help of a super-niño. Same thing but opposite this go around. I think the PDO/PNA will flip modestly negative (low frequency basis) starting in late 2016 or 2017, an will remain modestly negative until the typical backresonant El Niño response to solar-minimum, probably in 2019 or 2020, before a much deeper Niña/-PNA/-PDO regime takes over in the early 2020s. I'm quite confident in this prediction.

Yup, words cannot describe my growing hatred for this climate. DCA just jumped 10*F in the last hour, 8*F in 20 minutes. Was 82/75 @ 10:05AM, 90/72 @ 10:25AM, now at least 92/70 as of 10:45AM. Will probably reach 97-98*F before 2pm. At least with the longer nights now, we're not hitting 90*F by 9AM anymore..that's a win, right? I think J/A/S is our new "peak" of summer, while J/F/M/A is our new winter. Oh, and Spring has been forever cancelled..we just jump right into summer after three weeks of drizzle and marine air. Heck, April has been more of a winter month than November/December combined in recent years. Both last year and the year before, we've observed more snowfall in April than November/December combined. Terrible.

I wonder if the ECMWF seasonal is underplaying the Niña..already underestimated the Niña circulation/-AAM integral in the tropics for July and August.

New ECMWF monthlies are out. Looks like copy of the recent winters of 2013-14 and 2014-15 with a big, fat, block centered over the EPO domain (NEPAC/Alaska), +NAO, and large trough centered in the Midwest and Great Lakes. Need that NAO vortex displaced farther west. However, the western ridge is centered somewhat offshore relative to the west coast, so it's more of a 2013-14 look than a 2014-15 look..maybe providing the opportunity for retrogression(s) of the ridge.

The 06z GooFuS is quite trough-happy, though!

84/75, H/I 92 as of 9AM this morning. That's more typical of July/August than mid-September. Highs should reach 95-100 degrees today east of the Blue Ridge.

My morning humidity reader says: gross http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/5C0C6FE8-F987-4722-8F06-9E2CE095FAD3_zpsfdanmjwe.jpg

Holy crap @ this storm video taken in Minnesota. Winds just keep intensifying until the trees basically explode and debris starts ripping off the house. Behaves like a derecho with the pulsing, prolonged wind cycles. Have to watch the full thing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&persist_app=1&v=EuPc57cVB_I

Boreal winter IOD back to the 1870s..winter of 1880, 1916, and 1950 say hi. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/E40B8EA0-FE8D-4803-AC3B-ADA16270FCD3_zps9a5spqoj.png

Speaking of the IOD..major negative phase underway. Will this hold into winter? Or will it collapse in October as it has tended to do in recent years? http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/27C7C93D-DC69-491D-8275-3BAC976B5CF8_zpsy80dmqal.png

Yeah, also some of those neutral IOD years could probably be classified into "leans positive" or "leans negative". The strongest correlation for you guys is actually the QBO state @ 50mb in conjunction w/ ENSO. You guys do best under a Niña/+QBO couplet. In Niños, you guys do best with a -QBO. In all cases, regardless of ENSO, weak solar forcing improves your chances, minus the BDC/O^3 driven nightmare of 1975-76.

Well, long term trends in cell latitude (alone) appear to mostly be a function of solar forcing (ENSO/QBO have shorter term effects), on a decadal scale (through multiple conduits), running on somewhat of a lag. Cell latitude appears to have peaked, as migration has slowed/stopped since 2005, though no contraction is evident yet. Cell intensity and zonal/meridional ratios in mass/momentum transport are more complicated, influenced by a number of factors, from solar forcing, to longer term resonant tendencies in thermal/SST gradients/photochemical forcings, etc.

I can't find even one good analog right now. Irritating, yet fascinating at the same time.

Yup, it's just as much about the intensity (relative to the width and latitude) in that regard, too. Despite similar cell latitudes/widths in the late 1800s, the strength ratios were opposing.

We haven't observed a Niña/-IOD under a +QBO w/ low solar+BDC since..at least the 1970s, really not since the 1950s. Only now, circulation climatologies aren't what they were bac then. New ground here..right now, we have a monster -IOD ongoing. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/3FA27486-8167-487E-B7E7-FD59D83386E3_zpsloxswdgh.gif

These changes in the Walker/Hadley ratios are reflected in the IOD/ENSO relationship, too. We haven't had a La Niña w/ a coherent -IOD cell since the 1970s, and 1975-76 (the last manifestation of this dynamic) featured a weakening -IOD cell weakening dominated by a powerful +PV/+NAM due to a weak BDC/O^3 transport. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/85841EC0-FED2-4088-8608-BB75D15F91C3_zpslucfk6pe.jpg

Since the late 1970s, the Hadley Cells have strengthened and broadened, manifesting as a strengthening and poleward migration of the zonal winds (jet) poleward of 30N/25S, and an underlying increase in the annular modes, PVs, and a reduction in the meridional fluxes.

Now here's intensity..note the differential intensity ratios (relative to latitude and width) in the NH cell, which has been both strong and poleward biased since the late 1970s, versus weak/poleward biased in the late 19th/early 20th centuries and strong/contracted in the mid 20th century. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/44557873-03D1-4B48-8228-EB00D13CA848_zpsbc25yery.jpg

Top graph is mean N/S Hadley Cell latitude, the bottom graph is mean Hadley Cell width. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/BF001123-73A9-4BA9-BCFA-67FA27E2CBCE_zpsugoxhmw5.jpg

It's become even more stark since 1998, with Eastern North America now observing their coolest temperatures over 10 days later, and western North America observing them almost a month earlier vs 1951-1980.

I highly recommend giving this a read if you're interested in the longer term changes to the climatological off-equator boreal winter circulations. This is the mechanical root for pretty much all of it. http://www.clim-past.net/8/1169/2012/cp-8-1169-2012.pdf

Spent the majority of my day-off today looking for clues to winter and reading literature (I'm such a nerd). While I haven't run the correlation coefficients/p-values yet, it appears Siberian ridging in September/October correlates well to a -EPO circulation in DJF during La Niña/neutral ENSO. Ideal position would be a ridge centered over the north-central Siberian coast.

http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/hovmollers.html