Phil

So transparent. Would've expected better than "I'm rubber you're glue" from our coveted lawyer, but whatever.

Touché, but at least I don't try to reputation-build off it 24/7..

The mood in here swings with every model cycle. Gonna be some frayed nerves with this one, even more so than with the late July retrogression. Just FWIW, the forcing out of the WPAC has a history of leading to catastrophic short range modeling fails, given the longitude of the corresponding WAF field(s). Most likely will be another one of those "fails" later this month.

Imagine those conditions, except you're getting blasted with solar radiation at like 800W/m^2, and instead of sitting, you're walking around with the sun heating up your body and clothes, while your sweat is unable to evaporate efficiently and cool your body. Now imagine these conditions occurring through the entirety of the summer, so they're unavoidable unless you stay huddled up inside all day every day. Maybe you'd love it (for a little while, at least), but I can't endure it for very long.

The next several days are going to drive model huggers absolutely bonkers. Will be another big shift over the NEPAC as the retrogression is realized.

You must use the word "east" frequently. My phone will sometimes autocorrect typos to "ENSO" or "forcing".

Have you ever actually experienced dewpoints in the upper 70s/low 80s? Just curious. It's a completely different animal relative to the dry, crispy 110+ desert heat. Nothing prepares you for it, really.

Up in NY/NE, might be close. Not in the DC/PHI areas, though. Upper 70s/low 80s dewpoints occur basically every summer around here. Had the dewpoint reach 83 degrees here as recently as last September. Big stuff was the 85-88 degree dewpoints in July of 2011.

Yeah sorry, had Dover AFB up there.

(OT) Dewpoint @ JFK is 84 degrees right now, heat index is a whopping 121 degrees. DCA is 100/80, H/I of 120. Marshall is 99/87, H/I 131 degrees. What a crazy airmass.

Yikes, 100/80 @ DCA, heat index of 120 degrees!

Would highly recommend WxBell. You get access to so much..EPS/CMC ensembles through day 15, ECMWF weeklies, individual soundings/meteograms from the ECMWF/EPS through day 15, etc.

Models still look to be mishandling that second anticyclone over the NEPAC, IMO. Almost like models don't recognize WAF/MT interactions

Or maybe I'm giving my honest thoughts on the matter? You try so desperately to come off as "above the fray". It's just weird, dude. There's obviously something absent in your life.

Sheesh, try any harder and you might have a stroke.

Better NYC than DC..heat indices will probably approach or surpass 120 degrees throughout the DC metro tomorrow. Dewpoints are already in the upper 70s/low 80s across the area.

Yeah, I've noticed the heat is sticking around longer into the night, and has been starting much earlier in the day as well. We just went 35 days straight without falling below 70 degrees, numerous nights failed to drop below 80 degrees. Worst part is when temps soar into the 90-95 degree range by 9AM. As for the QBO, it's controversial. I have a theory on it that I'll elaborate on later, but for now you can rest easy knowing a +QBO can only benefit you in a Niña winter.

The 11:52pm ob @ DCA was 85/80. Like, who the hell could possibly enjoy this s**t?

Trust me, you don't want to walk outside at 11pm into heat indices still above 100 degrees. It's just not right.

Regarding winter, starting to become clear (IMO) that we'll have a NPAC anticyclone that is both stronger and located poleward versus the typical Niña orientation given the perfectly timed transition into +QBO in conjunction with reduced IO exhaust, I have a strong hunch that this will wind up being the best winter since at least 2008-09 in the PNW.

18z GFS is troughalicious. Maybe tonight is the night the modeling catches on and takes the real plunge.

Excessive heat warning in effect for tomorrow, excessive heat watch on Sunday. Warning is for heat indices between 110 and 115 degrees, though the usual spots will probably surpass 120 degrees.

Glad I'm missing this heatwave. Looks like heat indices maxed out round 110 degrees today, +/- 5 degrees around the DCA/BWI corridor today. Home station hit 98/77, for a heat index of 113 degrees. DCA looks to have reached 99 degrees this afternoon, which tied a record high for the date (though that's low hanging fruit right there). Heat index maxed at 110 degrees.

Maybe Tim is onto something w/ the Canadian picking up on pattern changes before other guidance. If the retrogression does occur (as I'm expecting it to), yesterday's 12z Canadian was once again the first to sniff it out, similar to how it sniffed out the slow ULL.

Late August is going to make or break most of these forecasts. All hinges on whether we follow climo under the upcoming regime or we pull a fluke. Retrogression favored in the forcing/pattern analogs. DCA cranking it up again today, 99/75 intra hour high currently..