Phil

Great to hear from you again! Where have you been? I've been talking to myself in here

Major storm today, winds hit 71mph w/ heavy rains and frequent lightning

Don't expect the modeling to hold with the MJO genesis event currently in the IO. There's a CCKW moving into the ATL domain as well.

What is your forecast? I'm definitely not on the ridgy bandwagon..

I admit the moonshine is still in my system today. If I'm not making correct interpretations, let me know

What do you suspect will happen, then? I have to say, you're a very talented troller I can't respond to this without sounding like a dumb, dense crank

Clinging to the OP run 168hrs out? You're quite the wishcaster.

This has essentially morphed into a general observations thread

Was warming. The news media has switched from hyping a super Niño to hyping global temps. Yet, despite the system-state being ripe for a spike, there's not much going on: http://catchmypicture.com/f/X89rDX/800.jpg http://catchmypicture.com/f/qF0Eqw/800.jpg

Yep

I'm talking to myself in here, Lol. Currently 71/71 with a steamy fog

Must be a western US phenomenon w/ dry air aloft. Dewpoints here always peak during the afternoon

Maybe in October. September looks like a dry month to me, at least in the PNW. The next few weeks (at least) look like blowtorch in my area...if I stop posting it's because I've been locked up

What are you thinking, as far as winter is concerned? I have a hunch, but I'm going to wait a bit longer before jumping on the bandwagon, as I'm still waiting for a few pieces of the puzzle to come together

What would constitute a muggy pattern?

The tropical circulations look like a classic case of Niño/-QBO, to me. The 2009-10 analog also has those dynamics, but may ultimately fail for other reasons...in 6 weeks we should have a much better idea on where things seem to be heading, as far as the winter circulations are concerned.

Not surprised at all by the troughing, as it is to be expected with the WPAC subsidence.. I think September will end up near average overall with some ridging returning later in the month. Large scale lift should return to the WPAC from the IO domain mid-month, marking a return to WPAC typhoon action and an amplified Rossby wave train over the NPAC with a poleward eddy flux. That said, the first week or two should be troughy and crisp in the west, IMO. I could see the first 8-12 days of the month averaging well below normal

It's a legit, stratospherically-coupled MJO wave...not a s**ty, high-frequency CCKW playing dress up. So, in this case, we should see quite the pattern progression over the next 5-8 weeks as the winter regime takes hold...though it's looking like we may see a multitude of patterns this winter due to competing Walker Cell/ENSO forcing and QBO/MJO/SAO (stratospheric/tropical-resonance) forcing. If everything times right, looks a lot like a 1960s Niño, imo

The system has been screaming niño for awhile now, but streamfunctions look a hybrid between the Niños of old (pre-1979), and the more recent Niños.. Classic Niño circulation leading to equatorialward eddy flux over North America/ATL http://catchmypicture.com/CUsp8g.jpg Here are post-1979 Niños: http://catchmypicture.com/kfwFWP.jpg Pre-1979 Niños: http://catchmypicture.com/BCN1p5.jpg

However, looks like things flip around eventually...finally a legit low frequency wave. It's been like....forever http://catchmypicture.com/f/12C4Gn/640.jpg

+VP anoms going strong in WPAC. #westerntroughing http://catchmypicture.com/SPDne4.jpg

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml

If I may give my thoughts...I see a continuation of western troughing until September 5-10, before the development of large scale lift in the WPAC (associated with the propagation of an MJO event) leads to enhanced Rossby wave action over the NPAC, and a ridge in the vicinity of the PNW. Question is where will the ridge set up? It could set up along on just off the west coast, which could keep the trough over the Rockies/Plains/Midwest..or it could set up over the entirety of western North America..which will lead to a warm west/cold east scenario. I'm not sure which will unfold yet, but I favor the idea of western ridging resuming between September 5-10.

70/70...thick, steamy fog

You wanna talk about complaining? Hahaha. I want variability. Yeah I'll be miserable if this winter features the same s**t 24/7. We went over 5 months without seeing any liquid-form precip in 2013-14. We don't get much in the way of pleasant weather here after mid October, dude. http://weatherspark.com/averages/30165/Elkins-West-Virginia-United-States At that stage, consistent warmth requires zonal flow, which leads to endless upslope clouds/fog.