Phil

It’s called the MJO.

Idk where in Ashland TimmySupercell lives but a nasty wind core passed very close to him this morning.

Looks like the wind core went through the south side of Ashland. Gusts to 92mph and 102mph at two different stations.

Hope he’s alright, haven’t seen him online since it passed thru.

Welcome to spring in the east. Moderate risk for you today!

@Timmy Supercell

The GFS is useless for cloud cover.

That’s what I said.

I’m dumber than a sack of rocks.

Hahahahahaha. Holy s*** I see what I did now, it’s that button on the top right of main page. Somehow was oblivious to it until now.

Or I just didn’t notice it before. That level of ADHD isn’t beyond me.

Loving the new option to view the entire forum as opposed to switching between regional subforums. So much easier.

This type of setup is less reliant on insolation/sfc heating than the kinematic/forced components, relatively speaking. If you’re near/south of the warm front, you’re in the game. NW flow aloft with low level WAA is notorious for nocturnal severe, both super-cellular and MCS-type variety. Generally speaking, SBCAPE/surface heating becomes more important later in May into the summer months. But of course it’s not always the case..each situation is unique to some degree.

Seasonal/climate models will typically default to the canonical ENSO response, particularly during boreal winter. The components of subseasonal variability are always underestimated, and in fact are near impossible to project dynamically from such ranges. Seasonal forecasting is actually the area where AI/statistical models have the greatest potential to improve predictability. Factor in enough inter-related components (QBO, subseasonal modes of tropical forcing such as MJO, ERWs, & OKWs, Atlantic/Pacific meridional modes, annular modes, ENSO, etc) and their statistical+dynamical relationship(s) with one another, and you will see a substantial increase in predictability in both seasonal and subseasonal frequencies at very long ranges (possibly 6+ months).

D**n. Andrew had better watch his back.

Omg STFU. Demonic insomniacs. IMG_1125.mov

holy ducting thunder batman. I felt that in my chest.

The global SSTA match with 2010 borders on spooky. Far and away the closest fit, with 1973 the runner-up. Also the descending NE-Canada block fits the 2010 progression. As does the descending +QBO with -PMM/+AMM. Below are SSTAs in 2024 (top) and 2010 (bottom) with global anomaly adjusted to zero. Crazy homogeneity.

Last time we had back to back nights with thunderstorms in March was 2010. Noticing a lot of similarities to that year, though timing shifted a few weeks.

Satan = ridging. God = troughing.

18z GFS looks Jesse-tastic.

Lmao. Keep in mind this is occurring with the backdrop of my comical ordeal after chasing in Plymouth. It’s another Phil story I’m sure half of you won’t believe, but it’s the perfect microcosm to summarize my life to-date. Trimmed from my previous post, but I went up there solo for the Jan 2022 blizzard, and let me tell you…driving a small sedan off the cape after 2+ feet of snow, frozen storm surge over wash, and power lines down everywhere was NOT easy. Praise Jesus that New England clears roads better than DC, or I would’ve been screwed. Had initially planned to spend another night at the pilgrim sands assuming I’d be snowed in (I wasn’t), but power was out and many of the ocean facing windows were broken, so it was cold as hoth in there. Everyone noped out of there by sundown. Even then I would’ve been fine, but my sister insisted I layover at her apartment in NYC, and after doing so I ended up running over a piece of plywood half buried in the snow w/ nails jutting out. Because, of course. My 10yr old donut held out just long enough to get me to an Acura dealer. Went flat right as I got there. Ultimately ended up spending as much $$ as I would have on renting an SUV, bc my insurance policy was El Cheapo. So yeah, her criticism isn’t without merit.

lol I missed this. It’s not like that, I already got her to take off work 4/7 - 4/9 to travel to OH with me. If we hit New England first we’ll have to pay for a hotel, and driving a Camaro into a blizzard comes with..risks (tho I’ve done it before, heh). I could go myself, but I don’t want to drive home then make another trip over the Appalachians and back.

Damn, you must have a short growing season.