TigerWoodsLibido

Glad of this. Don't want to start having PV drops too early. I want it in December/January where it's coldest.

Really hope that moves further south

Man I hope that storm track won't be a consistent one through the fall/winter because that would put Oregon in the warm sector of most of these events. Bummer.

70 In Dallas, OR. Beautiful

Latest EC a bit less bullish on the cold air. Keeps it north of the border for the most part.

Yeah that's the one. Not quite as early as I remember then. As has been said, there is a relatively small sample size for early Nov cold air. I'd rather it hold off til later so Oregon has a better chance for snow though.

I do remember the early snow in November in Eugene in 2003 with a cold rain that eventually lowered the snow level to the valley floor with a heavy enough band. It lasted a couple hours or so. So that analog would be a good one.

I feel like an early blast could be a bad omen for later as well. Like we are blowing our load too early.

Same thing happens in the western Willamette Valley when we are in the icebox and a low pressure system overruns it. The eastern outflow from the Columbia River Gorge toward the low center creates a cold air dam that pushes the column of cold air in the west valley higher, so as to delay or outright prevent freezing rain or sleet developing (such as what happened in 2008). This is why places like Lebanon, Silverton and areas in the east valley have the warm nose affect them sooner with freezing rain/sleet or simply rising above freezing in the lower levels sooner than, say, McMinnville, Grand Ronde, Dallas, Monmouth/Independence, and sometimes even Philomath/Corvallis

Yup. That's why NE Texas experiences a lot of ice storms because that lower level air is indeed colder than aloft as you say.

Hopefully will be the first of many pass-bys of that lovely big Canadian H

EC getting my hopes up? Boy I hope it holds. 1-2 more runs trending that way and I think we will see that pattern regularly assert itself trending westward as we keep moving through the fall.

Things maybe cooling a bit in the clown range? You wonder if this ridge is just going to be persistent through the winter?

And only a handful south of PDX metro. SFA and myself. There's others but they escape me at the moment. Anybody from south valley like Corvallis or Eugene here?

Really hope that doesn't doom our winter.

Looking good, just a waiting game for our first blast in the coming weeks. I hear Nov week 2 is looking like the first possibility?

I vaguely remember that one. Lived in Sheridan just west of McMinnville during that time and I do remember it being a cold and fairly snowy winter. I'm wondering, when was the last "Siberian Express" type event we had here? Would it have been 13-14 in early December when places near Tillamook hit -10? My mom tells me about what sounds like one of those events from 1972 when it dropped to single digits and about a foot of snow in the west valley.

Wow, embarrassing AF. Should have read my post before I sent it. I wondered if there were any arctic outbreaks in NOVEMBER of any of those years in the 50s. My great aunt told me all about the snowstorms they had in the 50s when she moved up here, and she lived in Drain near the top of the Umpqua/Willamette divide.

So were there any notable arctic outbreaks that affected the PNW in the 50s? I don't seem to hear about many that have affected Oregon, likely since we are further south and it makes that much of a difference as that small bit of extra solar heating is enough to keep us just above that threshold. That said, I remember a strange event in Eugene in Nov, 2003, where a steady band of cold rain became so heavy that an evaporative cooling process brought the snow level to the surface. Maybe something similar this year?

Man I hope so. Once we get 3-4 runs of it I will start to get excited.

18z GFS with that cold air just north of the border in the clown range. You wonder how much longer it will be bottled up?

You wonder how much longer it's going to be before the atmosphere re-configures into a similar pattern. You still think it's in a 50s-ish pre-winter pattern right now?

This is like a wonderful message board version of a sitcom.

I keep hearing that these warm autumns/Indian summers are a decent omen for a cold winter here. Obviously not a guarantee but is that the case more often than not?

Probly at some point this fall/winter. The odds just favor it so heavily at the very least 1 time. I just hope the Willamette Valley gets in on the action again.