mlgamer

Sitting at about 2.5" and NWS radar shows an enhanced area of heavier snow moving into my area...dark green and yellow on the radar. The Chiefs game should be a real snowfest!

Started snowing at 5:30 AM and have picked up 1.5" in three hours. A very pretty snow...fat flakes gently falling and sticking lightly to the trees...looks like the classic Christmas holiday scene. This will be our biggest snowfall so far this winter when it's over. I also plan to watch the Broncos and Chiefs duke it out in the snow. Life is good..lol

Lezak just posted he favors the Euro based on the satellite presentation of the energy coming ashore and his analysis of the models. He also mentioned the NAM coming more in line with the Euro. The 00z guidance should be interesting with the energy on shore. More surprises ahead?

Clinton, I think you're looking good for this one...hope it delivers! 18z 12k NAM is almost comical for me....shows a range in Shawnee (my) County of 2" in the northwest corner to 8" inches in the southeast corner. Talk about living on the edge...

The 12z Euro shifted to the southeast as well...I only get 1.5" after 6PM Sunday. Not throwing in the towel yet, but the 12z guidance overall moved the second wave away from me. NAM models seem to have a north bias and overdo QPF a lot so not really taking those too seriously at the moment. I better go sacrifice a chicken in the backyard or something...

I think the second wave will just miss me to the south as the 12z GFS and ICON are showing. Looks to me like the usual 1-3" from the first wave and nothing from the second IMBY. This seems the most reasonable outcome to me...hope I'm wrong.

Okay, everyone sing along with me.... NAM to the north of me ICON to the south Here I am stuck in the middle with you!

18z GFS cut my snow totals in half and placed me close to the southern edge. Not going to panic over one run, BUTTTT.....it feels like I've seen this movie before.

I saw that too and have spent time this morning looking at the 500mb charts. I saw some very subtle similarities supporting about a 60 day cycle, but nothing clearly definitive to my amateur eyes anyway. Oct 12 featured a deep low centered over northern Minnesota, this morning's data shows a slight ripple in that area. I know Gary knows his stuff but I'm a bit puzzled myself as I was leaning towards 48 days or so.

I must admit that I always fall in love with the first model that smiles at me...even though I know they'll dump me for a more northern or southern track in the end.

Hey all! Just checking in to report that the monthly snowfall totals in Topeka have been moving backwards. Oct - 1.5" Nov - 0.3" Dec - 0.1" I am guessing Dec 17/18 is next best chance of anything significant here, but not holding my breathe. Pretty blah so far...

This was the third consecutive October (2017-2019) that we had measurable snow in Topeka. We had no measurable snow in the previous 20 Octobers (1997-2016) before that.

18z models and 00z NAMs have been inching the snow farther away from me. $#!+

I am only one county away from the Winter Storm Watch issued by the Topeka NWS. That's a lot closer to me than I was expecting...so maybe I'm still in the game.

Hey guys, the Topeka NWS AFD this afternoon was one of the strongest worded ones I have seen in awhile (see above sample snippet). Sounds like they think the "big one" is coming to parts of our area. Fun storm to track so far...

In the winter of 2010-2011, Topeka did not receive it's first inch of snow until mid-January (I don't have the exact date handy) and finished that season with 38.6" which was twice the normal. It's funny how things can turn on a dime even in what seems to be a snowless winter.

Picked up just under 3" from today's event. It'll be fun to see if we build on it in the coming days.

I'm sitting at 53F and sunny skies at the moment. Very nice day! Hard to believe this time tomorrow it should be snowing with a temp around 19F. Good ol' Kansas weather!

lol...yeah not trying to downplay 17", but a lot of that came in 1" or less increments. Besides, what serious winter weather lover wants average snowfall? Give me those epic winters every year...

Pretty much. I think areas around St. Joe have had nearly twice that this year around 35". This year looks a little better here because the previous four winters were awful. Maybe I should have put this in the complaint thread...though I really wasn't complaining...just stating expectations for the rest of the winter.

lol...things ALWAYS look great 9 days away. Still, I'd be happy if you're right!

I'm beginning to think Oklahoma and Kansas are pretty much done for this winter. Most of the real snow action has been to the north and east of here and I think it will stay that way. We've only had 17.2" of snow in Topeka this winter which is nothing to write home about in my book. As they say in sports..."maybe next year". (This is a win-win post. If I'm wrong, it means we cashed in on some late season snow.)

Snowcover map from 40 years ago today...fun times!

Surprised to see even I could get snow tomorrow. Can't let your guard down for a second...lol

Well, I'm still on target to get anywhere from 0"-12" of snow later today and tonight. The setup seems to favor the extremes in my area - slightly stronger storm, maybe a foot - slightly weaker storm, maybe nothing - with no happy middle. Temps will be critical as well. At least it's finally game day...