AbbyJr

Unless the models are just confused because of the SSW, it looks like any intrusion of arctic air into the PNW would be brief based on long range models. What are your thoughts?

November 2006! Please and thank you. I'll never forget that epic snowstorm.

Although I doubt it will verify, this run looks primed for a major arctic blast. Exciting to see so early and adds to my confidence that this will be a decent if not epic PNW winter.

If the ENSO goes neutral next winter and we see a shift to +QBO, then 1990/91 could be an analog for the 2022/23 winter.

I would have thought that type of pattern would be a result of a SSW, not a trigger for one but perhaps it can be both a result and a trigger?

The Euro weeklies control run. Lock it in!

I've heard that a -QBO can increase the chances for SSW events, and those can deliver some of the longest cold and snowy patterns in the PNW. If this is the case, then that would be a situation where the PNW could have an epic winter under a Nina/-QBO state. But as you said, its a lot easier to amplify the N Pacific ridge under Nina/+QBO so a SSW would be less of a necessity under such a combo.

Depending on where the trough sets up, there is big potential for a long duration cold pattern if that verifies. Looks like persistent GOA and high latitude blocking.

Is this similar the the wave activity leading up to the December 2008 arctic blast?

Sudden Stratospheric Warming.

If I recall correctly, you said it was the SSW that saved the PNW 2020/21 winter. Correct me if I'm wrong.

I recall Phil mentioned a while back, but correct me if I'm wrong, that the QBO at 50mb has more of an impact on the weather patterns than the 30mb level. Is that right?

Why do we want a late October arctic outbreak? December and January are the better months to maximize the cold. We don't want to use up our winter when it doesn't matter.

Yeah I would prefer it hold off until November... but maybe the SSW can help us get an early taste of winter in mid-late November? We can still do good in the cold and snow department at that time of year. At least we hopefully won't have to wait until February again for winter to arrive.

Is IO forcing good for GOA blocking or is WPAC forcing better?

Do you think the -PDO could increase the chances of a cold and snowy PNW this winter?

It looks like we have a strong -QBO at 30mb right now and a weak +QBO at 50mb. If I understand correctly, but correct me if I'm wrong, the 50mb level has more of an impact on the PNW weather. If so, could someone explain why this is the case? Also, if the 30mb level is trending strongly negative, does that suggest the same pattern will occur at the 50mb level?

November and December 1996 performed well in the PNW.

For the sake of our PNW winter, we probably don't want a SSW before November, correct?