AbbyJr

I'm not worried about the GFS if we have the Euro and GEM on our side. That said, the GFS run is still solid.

Is the pattern now starting to evolve the way you originally expected?

Whats bizarre is that it seems the 00Z and 06Z GFS always back off on the cold and then the 12Z and 18Z bring it back. Coincidence or any scientific reason for this?

There are no guarantees the cold is coming. I agree that the models are struggling right now, but they could also do a flip to milder solutions at the last minute. Not saying thats going to happen, but the GFS solution does not have the Euro's support right now. The Euro is said to be the most reliable model thus I have trouble being onboard without its support.

Looks to me like the GFS is sadly a cold outlier. Euro, GEM, and ICON are all in agreement. That said, I have a hard time believing that Alaskan vortex is going to sit right in between of the ridge. Therefore, the Euro, GEM, and ICON solutions look strange to me.

Since when was the parallel GFS a reliable model? Its experimental at this stage.

Long range models have been unreliable this winter. Focus on the short term and the long range will take care of itself. There is potential, in my opinion, for this arctic blast to go on longer than modelled. Some ensemble members hint at it.

Latest trends don't bold well for east coast winter fans. That said, they did just get massive snowstorm so its our turn now.

This model shift to colder solutions in the short term is unreal. We could be looking at something really legit if this trend keeps up. Honestly, forget about what the models show in the long range. This winter has zero long range predictability. At this point, I'm still trying to wrap my mind around the fact that most if not all the models have shifted the cold significantly further west in the short term. Phil, any insight?

I'm not sure how one can find anything positive about the 00Z Euro. West Coast ridge and Vortex in Alaska. Not at all what we need for arctic air to drop into the PNW.

Do you think the PNW has another chance at an arctic blast this month or have we run out of time in your mind?

This is why you never doubt the EPS.

What's wrong with being positive?

12Z EPS still solid.

They were fairly stable from what I recall once I started looking at them again. I'd given up hope for the winter until I decided to check them out again. I was pleasently surprised when I saw what they were advertising.

Yeah it's solid still but we don't want it to keep trending in this direction.

Here is last night's 00Z EPS. Looks solid to me.

I'm still not buying this model collapse. Makes no sense we don't score something good in a phase 7 MJO. Apart from minor changes to the timing, the EPS remains consistent. At this point I'd still expect other models to cave to it. While I could be wrong, I still trust the EPS.

00Z EPS is not as good as the 12Z but far from caving.

Honestly, given all those factors, its actually a miracle that we even got an arctic blast that month.

It was the strong vortex that caused the January 2020 arctic blast to be cut short and a lot less epic than what the GFS initially modelled, right?