Frontal Snowsquall

Good analysis!

Looks promising.

Looking nice!

Yeah I know. I'm going to try and stay humble. If anything happens it will still be over half a month away. I want to see how this all unfolds. Going to be an insane roller coaster ride!

I'm talking bigger picture.

I can honestly say that this is the most excited I've ever been in my life for an incoming SSW event.

I actually did see this part but it was too blurry for me to make out. Wilson is one lucky guy!

Long hair on women drive me crazy!

It's close to becoming great. Very frigid Arctic air makes its way into BC.

I like all forms of extreme weather. So from extreme drought to extreme rain to extreme wind to extreme snow, I'll take them all. Only caveat is if it starts getting too crazy with situations like wildfires. Then I'll start rooting for some rain.

The 12z GEFS looks good for the last week of December. Not a finished product but it's a start.

New update from Brett Anderson. Short-range highlights...... A series of Pacific storms that will be loaded with moisture will sweep into British Columbia over the next week, and the result will be heavy rainfall and potential flooding along the coast and rounds of heavy snowfall in the mountains. By the middle of next week, portions of western Vancouver Island may end up with 200 to 300 mm of rain from all these storms. Some ski resorts in the Coastal Mountains of southwestern BC may end up with close to 3-4 feet (a meter or more) of new snowfall by the middle of next week. There will also be significant snow in the BC Rockies (1-2 feet through the period) and over the higher elevations of interior Vancouver Island. -------- Longer range Most of the Arctic air will be kept out of North America through the first week of January due in part to that strong Pacific jet delivering all that moisture into BC. There are some indications of an upcoming stratospheric warming event over the far northern latitudes later this month. Typically, these can eventually translate into a surge of Arctic air coming southward through a portion of North America in about two to three weeks after the warming event. Based on this early information, we may see a significant pattern change starting around the second week of January. Computer models are usually slow to catch on to these changes from these stratospheric warming events. https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/latest-update-on-the-long-range-pattern/70006882

LET'S GO!

Yeah, it's definitely gotten to 110 in a remote isolated location before if we had weather stations in every neighborhood in the Valley. I believe the main reason Seattle got to 103 was because they added another runway. Don't entirely quote me on this but I remember some poster(s) mentioning it. I just found out recently that PDX was planning to add another third super runway in 1968 by dredging and filling in some parts of the Columbia River. That idea got squashed when there was public outcry. If that plan did materialize then who knows, maybe PDX would have gotten to 110 on August 8/10 of 1981? Here's an article about the expansion and why it was squashed. "The plan would have expanded the number of gates from 18 to 38 by 1972. It would also provide a new terminal for giant Boeing 747 jetliner due out in 1969. From the beginning, this project was snarled in endless, federal red tape and public outcry from both Oregonians and neighbors across the river. To make things worse, 3 congressman from the state of Washington fought the proposal. The Washington state politicians cited environmental reasons but were really afraid that Portland airport expansion would have deleterious effects on the rival Sea-Tac International just 150 miles to the north. The fight lasted 4 years, but eventually, airport expansion into the river was not to be. In the end, the two existing runways were lengthened and improvements continued with the existing terminal." http://oldpdx.blogspot.com/2015/01/xxxxxxxxxxxx-early-runway-1961-original.html?m=1

Definitely a good sign. Better yet if we can get those ensembles to show up for Yakima.

The 00z FV3-GFS shows some potential in the long range.

I usually go here for free EURO weather maps. Has wind gust maps and other cool parameters. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro

This is a strong signal considering its half a month away and it's the ensemble mean. First time all Winter we have seen the EURO/EPS show the goods in the long range. It couldn't come at a better time. Late December into early January is the coldest time of the year climatology wise here in the PNW. Also fits the 1968-1969 analog.

Didn't get a chance to look over everything until just now. There was no downslope flow that day. I remember seeing that there was going to be downslope so apparently it did not materialize. A high of 105/106 is probably the max for 8/3/17. So to answer your question Omegaraptor, PDX would not have hit the 108/109 you forecasted. To get to 107 you pretty much need downslope winds to reach that level and it just wasn't there. I've now changed my vote to not in the near future. Unless PDX adds multiple runways 109/110 is virtually impossible, maybe 108 is possible but that's still a reach.

You wouldn't tell them the worst case scenario all the time. Only during events that warrant it. You would give them the forecast but at the same time notify them of a worst case scenario. Nothing wrong with that. Sort of what Steve Pierce did for the January 2017 PDX event, since he was really the only person to hint of a possibly bigger event.

Thanks for the insight. I started looking at the RAWS observations for Larch Mountain and also the Eagle Creek and South Fork sites for that day. I also have started looking at the observations for other heatwaves like July 2009. I'll post more of my thoughts by the end of this weekend.

General public.

Okay I'll look into the RAWS observations for that day. As for the smoke, you say it cleared up at 4:30pm. So let's say the smoke did have an impact that day. Wouldn't it have tempered temperatures throughout the day so we couldn't have reached our full potential? In other situations during these past few summers, I've seen the smoke pull the high temperatures down as much as 5 to 10 degrees below the forecasted high.