Frontal Snowsquall

Wow, Michael is now forecasted to make landfall as a Major Hurricane along the Florida Panhandle. The 12z EURO has it making landfall just before sunset on Wednesday. NWS Tallahassee@NWSTallahassee 11AM UPDATE KEY MESSAGES 1. #Michael now forecast to be a MAJOR hurricane at landfall. 2. Life-threatening storm surge along the FL Panhandle and Big Bend. 3. Tropical Storm Force winds arrive as early as Tues Eve. 4. Widespread Heavy Rain. #FLwx #GAwx #ALwx #HurricaneMichael https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSTallahassee/status/1049329179152588801

I just posted this in the Winter 2018-19 thread. My current thinking as of the moment. I'm eyeing the December 5-20 period for the first Arctic Blast of the season. Though there might be some leeway with this and it could come a little sooner or later. December quite frankly could be downright EPIC. January I'm seeing it stormy with possible atmospheric river events. Then I see one last period with a good opportunity for Arctic Blast around the January 25 to February 10 time frame. So to summarize, I'm looking at two separate 15 day windows where we have a great shot at cold/snowy weather here in the PNW. December 5 to December 20. January 25 to February 10. My reasoning behind all of this has to do with analogs and weather cycles I've been looking at. I'll go more in depth later this month.

I'm eyeing the December 5-20 period for the first Arctic Blast of the season. Though there might be some leeway with this and it could come a little sooner or later. December quite frankly could be downright EPIC. January I'm seeing it stormy with possible atmospheric river events. Then I see one last period with a good opportunity for Arctic Blast around the January 25 to February 10 time frame. So to summarize, I'm looking at two separate 15 day windows where we have a great shot at cold/snowy weather here in the PNW. December 5 to December 20. January 25 to February 10. My reasoning behind all of this has to do with analogs and weather cycles I've been looking at. I'll go more in depth later this month.

I'm not putting much stock into their forecast. Most of the time these long range forecast turn out being wrong.

FWIW, here is AccuWeather's Winter forecast that they just released. This is what they have to say for the PNW. Snow and rain may target the Northwest and Rockies A phenomenon known as a pineapple connection could take place this winter, drawing a deep flow of moisture into the western U.S. "Places on the West Coast could get hammered," Pastelok said. Central and Northern California to Oregon are likely to experience the heaviest precipitation, with flooding and mudslides not out of the question. January into very early February is forecast to be the stormiest period for the Northwest and Northern California before conditions dry out in February. "Ski areas from Washington to central and Northern California will have a good year with an extra boost possible from the late December and January pattern," Pastelok said. http://oi66.tinypic.com/331q3vq.jpg https://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2018-2019-us-winter-forecast-storms-to-target-mid-atlantic-snow-and-ice-to-strike-the-southern-plains/70006208

Sounds like a good idea.

One of the reasons why I'm hoping this Winter we get a big regional event like in December 2008 so everybody can score. With localized events, a slight shift in track might be the reason you're dry or with cold rain rather than snow. With big regional events your margin of error is more.

Holy ****! Would be a monster snowstorm for PDX 2 months from now. Heck even just 1 month from now!

Welcome to the PNW! I'm expecting a very cold and snowy Winter so I don't think you'll be disappointed. Just make sure you got reliable transportation to work due to possible treacherous road conditions this Winter. That's an interesting article. I didn't know that the ridge up there was one of the most intense on record. The very warm SSTs in the Bering Sea probably has something to do with it. Only bodes well for us down here this Winter.

True but it's good to have Winter Storms named IMHO. The January 10-11 snowstorm was named Jupiter. The December 2008 regional PNW snowstorm most likely would have been named before it hit us because it was well forecasted in advance.

Most people thought the PNW would roast that Winter.

Ben Noll@BenNollWeather After the exceptional eastern early October warmth fades, some chillier conditions are likely, but milder air may be back in time for November. Cold in the Plains, early snows northern tier? https://mobile.twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1046902542217576448

It shows close to 3" of rain down here for PDX for the next 10 days. http://oi66.tinypic.com/2i0d6ax.jpg

How about 1968-69? It had a colder than normal October here in the PNW and the coldest anomalies in the US were in the PNW. http://oi67.tinypic.com/214dugk.jpg

Going to be a wild rollercoaster ride this season!

I can't believe it's October already. Before we know it, we can legitimately start tracking Arctic Blast soon.

This winter marks the 50th year anniversary of that epic winter. We're due for something like that to happen again.

Here's a link where you can see the weather maps for that time frame. You just need to have the djvu plug-in. I downloaded it from the app store and it works like a charm. https://library.noaa.gov/Collections/Digital-Collections/US-Daily-Weather-Maps All I know from reading up on that event was that it came as a shock to many. Here's an article about that epic event. "The forecast for Saturday, Jan. 25, called for, “Increasing clouds, chance of snow.” Maybe as much as 2.3 inches of snow by noon, the forecast said. Instead, the forecast would have been more accurate if it had included another foot between noon and midnight. But what kind of nutty weatherman was going to predict that?" "Even Florence Florence! got 14 inches over the course of the blizzard. In the first 24 hours of the snowstorm, Eugene-Springfield got 22.9 inches." "Predicting a snowstorm like that which caught forecasters from Roseburg to British Columbia by surprise is about as easy as predicting Earth’s final days, says Clinton Rockey, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Portland who keeps Oregon snow records all the way back to the late 19th century." http://special.registerguard.com/csp/cms/sites/web/news/5675242-35/story.csp

The point I was getting at was that it's not necessarily a bad thing to see very cold anomalies for this time of year and in this case for October with what some of the model runs are showing. Speaking of that Winter, October 1949 had a significant cold snap that month. If I'm not mistaken 1949 still holds 5 days of record lows that month, the most for any year. Oct 16: 34 Oct 18: 31 Oct 19: 27 Oct 20: 28 Oct 21: 30

The 00z GEM goes absolutely nuts. Sub 528 thickness west of the Cascades. This is starting to get ridiculous.

I understand your concerns but to me it's a good sign we are starting to see lots of blocking up in Alaska already. Sure, we need the rain but do we really want zonal flow for most of Autumn and then magically hope the pattern changes for December? From now through the first half of Winter, I don't think the overall pattern will drastically change much.

Their probably thinking January 1969. Blows everything out of the water. Over 3 feet of snow January 25 to 27 and 47.1" for the month.