The Snowman

Polar vortex has always been located at the North Pole- it has had pieces of itself shed off and sent to lower latitudes.

FWIW, made a new blog post on the probabilities for a strong El Nino this year. There's a lot of stuff saying we might be headed that way. Link: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/03/could-next-super-el-nino-be-forming.html

Not as far fetched as you might think it to be.

As many as 5 storms expected to traverse the US in the next 2 to 3 weeks. I'm posting about them on my blog today and tomorrow, a LOT of activity around Japan indicating we'll be tracking storms for days to come.

A little too ENE for my liking, we might be staring the cut-off straight in the face. North of the city not looking so hot in that regard.

Per AmericanWx, the best solution to go with is ECMWF, adjusted a hair north to account for OBS.

A very tricky forecast we have here. Multiple variables arguing for a more north track, but models not picking up on the north track means it's all moot. Hopefully now casting can come through for us and deliver those 5"/hour rates the 0z NAM dropped last night

0z NAM is insane.

Made a new post on the blog for anyone interested. Siding with an NAM-favored/GFS compromise. Link: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/03/impending-snowstorm-to-drop-12-of-snow.html

EPO and WPO will still be negative...

Models have the bias to be too fast with systems, so this latest development isn't too surprising.

That's exactly what I said. Contradicts what you said mere hours ago. And result in a potentially colder than normal period. Would like to know how you know this. Honest question, not smart-alek question.

I would pay more attention to the tool that had a much higher success rate than the NOAA for this winter, if I were you. Theory has been verified successfully multiple times, no reason to completely toss it without knowing more about it.

-EPO has dominated this winter and has been the main producer of this season's cold. Long range forecasts have it going negative again in due time. -PNA may temper the cold a bit, but based on how the -EPO has been functioning this winter I wouldn't count on it. Bold prediction. Not so sure it comes to fruition. Many more factors going into the cool spring forecasts than solely lake ice. For instance, based on both the LRC and the old-fashioned forecasting method of persistence, measured out over a seasonal period, one could reasonably predict that the cold winter we've had could continue into spring.

Doubt it, mid-April looks good.

These storm threats for mid-March are very real. Expect these risks to continue until roughly March 20th.

Very stormy pattern expected March 12-20. Potential for a storm in our neck of the woods before best potential shifts east to the coast.

Measured 4.75" last night, eyeballing another .5 to 1" since then. Will measure in a little bit.

It's been a great game, though losing Hossa and not seeing Crosby isn't the best scenario. Oh wait, I've seen Crosby, he's just been invisible in the game.

Pleasantly surprised by 4.75" as of 20 minutes ago. Will probably breach the 5" mark when I go out to measure before 10.

Taking that forecast verbatim, would we be fluffing that up in N. IL to roughly 5-7"?

Hearing the NAM is different in its new 0z run...

Significant difference between the guys like Cantore, Forbes and the mets and TWC. I find Forbes and friends to excel where TWC doesn't, like posting that HPC graphic, interacting with fans, the little things.

I don't know if he hasn't refreshed his computer's cache, or if it's real, but that's really odd. I'm more than OK with such a forecast, but it isn't anything like recent forecasts. Guess we'll see what happens. OT, anyone heading to Soldier Field tomorrow? Looks to be not only a great game, but maybe some solid snow to add to the atmosphere.

Heh- control for the win?