-
Who's Online 2 Members, 0 Anonymous, 49 Guests (See full list)
-
Activity Stream
-
212
June 2024 Observations and Discussion
Hot and dry (but with humidity lol) for the next week before we get a rain chance it looks like. There may be a well timed trough to the north and tropical intrusion to the south such that rain develops over the area. I think this could easily disappear but it's about all I have to watch for now. Ensemble mean has PWAT of 2" and good instability for that period so heavy rain and storms may both be possible. -
3008
June 2024 Pacific Northwest Weather
FWIW, the EPS weeklies hint at a CCKW/MJO crossing the Pacific mid-July which could portend a ridgy/+TNH cycle around that time (see hovmoller plot below). Though the theme this year (so far) has been to water these down upon approach, so I’m not confident a western-centric ridge would have much staying power, assuming it comes to fruition in the first place. Overall there is a lot of E-Hem/IO (RMM phases 1-3) forcing this year, so the more likely outcome is a gradual warming w/rt climatology in the west over the next 3 months or so, as the seasonal response to this base state evolves. Very common for August and/or September to finish warmer than average in NW-North America in such regimes, though July less so. But it is still not the same base state as 2021 or 2022 (both were more IPWP centered w/ enhanced off-equator convection east of the dateline). So that kind of flip to +TNH seems less likely this summer.- 2
-
3008
June 2024 Pacific Northwest Weather
Of course. 2022 being the exception. That was a crazy evolution from all troughing to no troughing. That won't be happening this year.- 1
-
3008
June 2024 Pacific Northwest Weather
Troughs happen up there in July/August too. Climatology warms, but the frequency of troughs doesn’t necessarily change with respect said climatology. It’s just that the result gets warmer. -
3008
June 2024 Pacific Northwest Weather
00Z EPS looks fairly pleasant to me... but there will almost certainly be another significant troughing period during the last weekend of June.
-