June 2024 Observations and Discussion

[westMJim]

 

We are now about to jump into June and the start of meteorological summer. Before we do just a short note on the anniversary of the 1998 derecho that blew thru here on May 31st Note this is the 24th anniversary not the 23rd

https://www.woodtv.com/weather/bills-blog/the-famous-derecho-of-may-31-1998/

Before we look at the averages and records for June and the summer months lets take a look at this past May and the spring season. This past spring had a mean at Grand Rapids of 51.3 the 30 year mean for spring at GR is 47.5 so this spring was +3.8 above average. The past spring had 9.57” of rainfall average at Grand Rapids is 10.38 for a departure of -0.81” there was a total of 7.2” of snowfall average is 9.6” so the departure was -2.4”  The highest temperature this spring was 85 and the lowest temperature was 17. The last low of 32 or below was 28 on April 25th

June is of course the start of meteorological summer it has the most hours of daylight and the average H/L at Grand Rapids starts out at 75.3/54.1 on the 1st and rises to 82.3/61.5 on the 30th The average 30 year mean is 68.1 and the new 15 year average mean is 69.1. The warmest 5 Junes are 74.2 in 1919. 74.0 in 1933. 73.4 in 1921. 73.2 in 1934 and 72.8 in 2005. The coldest 5 are 61.8 in 1969. 61.9 in 1928. 62.0 in 1958. 62.3 in 1926 and 62.5 in 1945. The record highest day is 102 on June 20th 1953 the all time low is 32 on June 4th 1945. The average number of days with highs of 80 or better is 14. The most days of 80 or better is 25 in 1919 the June with the least was 1916 with just 2 days of 80 or better. The average number of days with highs of 85 or better is 8 the most is 18 and that happened on 4 years. There have been 5 years when there we no days of 85 or better. The average number of days of 90 or better is just 3 the most is 14 in 1894 and there have been a total of 37 years when the high did not reach 90 or better in June. The record low for June is 32 on June 4th 1945 it was just 33 on June 11th 1972. The warmest low (for the whole month) was 52 in 1934 in 1938 it did not get any colder than 51 and in 2008 and 2005 it did not get below 50. The wettest June was in 1892 when a reported 13.22” of rain fell.  Last year had the 2nd most with 8.49” The driest June was in 1988 when just 0.25” fell in the whole month.  To go along with that 2nd wettest June, last year had a mean of 70.9 that was +2.0. The high for the month was 90 on the 11th and 12th and the low was 41 on the 22nd there were 10 days of 85 or higher.  And 4 nights fell into the 40’s.

 At Grand Rapids the average mean for meteorological summer is 68.9 using the 30 average and 69.1 using the 15-year average. The warmest summer in recorded history at Grand Rapids is 74.7° in 1955. The 2nd warmest is 73.6 in 2012. The coldest is 1992 with a mean of 65.5. Last year the mean was 72.5. The wettest was in 1994 with 22.63” and the driest was way back in 1894 with 3.03” Last year Grand Rapids recorded 15.26” of rain fall. On average Grand Rapids has a little over 60% of possible sunshine. On average the hottest day of the year is 92. There have only been two summers when the temperature did not reach 90 or better. The current 30 year average number of days of 90 or better is just 9 the record number. The most was 36 in 1988 and the least was 0 in 1951 and 2014. Last year there were 14 days of 90 or better. The Summer solstice this year will be on June 20th at 4:50 PM EDT.  After that date the number of hours of daylight will start their decline towards fall and then winter.

[Clinton]

12z GFS is starting to catch on to a storm between the 8th and 10th that may bring another tornado outbreak, hopefully the last of the season.

[Andie]

I just realized DFW picked up 1.4” of rain yesterday. Came down real fast as well.  

78* at 2:30. 

[Andie]

Time is short so I’m posting this so more see it re: tonight’s Aurora 

Best seen in the Northern Midwestern States.  
 

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/aurora-dashboard-experimental

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 77/46 there was no rainfall the total rainfall for May 2024 was 3.16” that is a departure of -0.84”. There was 84% of possible sunshine yesterday. For today the average H/L is 75/54 the record high of 102 was set in 1934. The record low of 36 was set in 1993. The most rainfall of 2.65” fell in 1970.   Last year it was a hot 91/63

[Hawkeye]

Models really blew this morning's rain event across my area.  Most of them had little, if any rain here.  Instead, I got several hours of solid rain that added up to 0.64".  Some locations just se/east of me and up through Dubuque got 0.80-1.00+".

[Hoosier]

17 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Models really blew this morning's rain event across my area.  Most of them had little, if any rain here.  Instead, I got several hours of solid rain that added up to 0.64".  Some locations just se/east of me and up through Dubuque got 0.80-1.00+".

Had a nice downpour here earlier.

[Black Hole]

Heading into June the first third of the month still looks reasonable with troughing across the Great Lakes leading to normal to below normal temps and above normal precip for southern areas. 

[Andie]

We received 6.9” of rain in May in the DfW area. Things are really green.  
Our highest recorded rainfall was almost 17” in 2015.  

[hawkstwelve]

Under a slight risk for severe weather tomorrow. Looks like two potential times - one in the morning and one in the evening, the latter being highly dependent on how the former goes. Hoping for some excitement as it's been pretty mundane thunderstorms up here so far this year. Granted, seeing some of the many pictures of damage throughout the central US from severe storms makes me also grateful that the storm track has stayed further south.

One more system moves through on Tuesday and then we dry out for the rest of the week. Mostly sunny days with high temps in the mid/upper 70s. Perfect early June weather.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 74/52 there was 0.23” of rainfall and the day also had 23% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 76/55 the record high of 95 was set in 1934 and the record low of 35 was set in 1956. The most rainfall of 1.42” fell in 2007. Last year the H/L was 91/60 it was the 4th day of 5 days in a row of 90 or better.

Here in MBY I recorded 0.25” of rainfall yesterday and overnight. The low overnight low here was 60 and at the current time it is 63 and cloudy.

[Andie]

73-88 today. Overcast.  
30% Chance rain. 
Im going to enjoy this mild weather while I can as the heat is in the wings!

[chescowxman]

Some lower spots in the county again touched the 40's while here in East Nantmeal the low was only 55.7 degrees. Partly sunny today with some shower chances tonight. Best day of the week loos like Tuesday with sun and near 80 degrees. Shower chances ramp up for Wednesday night till Friday AM.

Chester County records for today: High 98 degrees at Phoenixville (1918) and 94 degrees in Western Chesco at Sadsburyville (1919) / Low 37 degrees at Coatesville (1927) / Rain 4.00" at Chadds Ford (1946)

[Andie]

89*, 62% humidity.  
Thunderstorms off to our NW.  

The air is so “thick” you could slice it with a knife.

Suffocating.  

[hawkstwelve]

Watch issued one county to my west and north. So close yet so far. Definitely the theme of the season for here.

[Andie]

Raining like there’s no tomorrow.  Heavy downpour, lightning, thunder, the whole floor show.  
Golf course is a wading pool.  We’ve received about 1-1.25” rain very quickly.  A little hail.
Pretty impressive.   More please

Update:  Local Mets are indicating more rain tonight and we could see a total of 3.25”. 
No one is complaining!

[OKwx2k4]

We are renown here in the southern heartland states for kicking off summer very warm in post-Niño (Strong, not Severe/Full basin) conditions, so the opening days here are going to be a bit of a historical shift. 

There is still a bit of a drought concern showing up in the larger counties of and near the Panhandle into KS, while our eastern two thirds is well saturated and opening the month in cleanup mode both in the south and in the Northeastern parts of Green Country. 

Outside of storm damaged areas this truly is a beautiful open to June. 

[Black Hole]

20 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

We are renown here in the southern heartland states for kicking off summer very warm in post-Niño (Strong, not Severe/Full basin) conditions, so the opening days here are going to be a bit of a historical shift. 

There is still a bit of a drought concern showing up in the larger counties of and near the Panhandle into KS, while our eastern two thirds is well saturated and opening the month in cleanup mode both in the south and in the Northeastern parts of Green Country. 

Outside of storm damaged areas this truly is a beautiful open to June. 

What do you think will happen this summer for our area? 

[Black Hole]

Models are waffling around a bit with what exactly happens tomorrow morning. But the 00z HRRR was a doozy with heavy warm advection rain east of here and then a strong squall comes down with high winds. Other models all have the same general idea but the details will matter.

Of course there were no TX radiosondes so that may impact forecastability tonight. Also, models seem to recover the airmass pretty quickly given all the storms we had south of here. It may be a stretch and we just get more garden variety stuff. We will see. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I saw Tulsa had over 10" of rain in May. 

[Andie]

9 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

We are renown here in the southern heartland states for kicking off summer very warm in post-Niño (Strong, not Severe/Full basin) conditions, so the opening days here are going to be a bit of a historical shift. 

There is still a bit of a drought concern showing up in the larger counties of and near the Panhandle into KS, while our eastern two thirds is well saturated and opening the month in cleanup mode both in the south and in the Northeastern parts of Green Country. 

Outside of storm damaged areas this truly is a beautiful open to June. 

The Panhandle of Texas is also included in that drought. Very hard on agriculture.  
Forecast?

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 77/59 there was 0.04” of rainfall. The sun was out 28% of the time. For today the average H/L is 76/55 the record high of 96 was set in 1934 the record low of 38 was set in 1947, 1977 and 1986. The record rainfall of 1.76” fell in 1892. Last year the H//L was 90/62 in the last of a early season heat wave.

The overnight low here in MBY was 55 and at the current time it is clear on 60.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Andie said:

The Panhandle of Texas is also included in that drought. Very hard on agriculture.  
Forecast?

IMO, the following week looks ripe for "Ridge Riders" as the NW Flow aloft can really blow up storms on the leeward side of the CO Rockies.  This pattern is prime for developing monstrous storms.  

 

[Tom]

This morning the smell of the fires to my NE was evident but thankfully they are manageable.  On Sat, I saw a couple of the larger planes that dump the red fire retardant flying low and slow.  Pretty cool experience as I've never seen that from afar and over the city where I live.  

Meantime, the 1st Excessive Heat Watch of the season has been issued from this Wed-Fri as the 110's are in the forecast.  How high do the temps go??  We shall see.  Happy Monday!

[chescowxman]

While no total washouts for the upcoming week...most days will include at least a chance at some showers. Best day looks like tomorrow and the wettest period from Wed night into Thursday.

Chester County records for today: High: 100 degrees at Phoenixville (1936) and in Western Chesco 98 degrees at Sadsburyville (1919) / Low 33 degrees at Phoenixville (1986) / Rain 2.53" at Chadds Ford (1959)

[Andie]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

This morning the smell of the fires to my NE was evident but thankfully they are manageable.  On Sat, I saw a couple of the larger planes that dump the red fire retardant flying low and slow.  Pretty cool experience as I've never seen that from afar and over the city where I live.  

Meantime, the 1st Excessive Heat Watch of the season has been issued from this Wed-Fri as the 110's are in the forecast.  How high do the temps go??  We shall see.  Happy Monday!

Checked the fires around Phoenix and the mountains to the NE have several.   
Im holding my breath Tucson avoids these fires. It’s just recovered from the big Mt Lemon fire from 20+ yrs ago.  

[Tom]

38 minutes ago, Andie said:

Checked the fires around Phoenix and the mountains to the NE have several.   
Im holding my breath Tucson avoids these fires. It’s just recovered from the big Mt Lemon fire from 20+ yrs ago.  

Thankfully, this local brush fire is heading east and not west and there aren't any communities that are in the path.  Very desert and empty land out that way.  Send some of that rain my way!  It'll be a while till we fire up some monsoon storms, although, it appears that there could be somewhat of a "Monsoonal" esque pattern that fires up over the 4 corners later this week/weekend.  Maybe Tuscon can score a rouge storm?

[hawkstwelve]

Last night was a huge dud. HRRRR ended up being right in showing the line completely falling apart right over my county. Saw some lightning in the distance but that was about it. Yawn.

Ready for the upcoming sunny days with highs in the 70s. Need this pattern to be reset in order to hopefully score more significant storms, so hopefully this pattern change will get us a step in that direction.

[Andie]

Just checked We’ve received a bit shy of 10” rain since May 1 in DFW.  
Nice change from the persistent drought. 

[Iceresistance]

Had two storms this morning, one of them woke me up at 5 AM

[Tom]

I took this video of the smoky skies this morning…I just finished working out and walked back from the gym so I was a bit winded…

 

 

 

This one was out by the fountain…

 

 

[Black Hole]

16 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I saw Tulsa had over 10" of rain in May. 

Yep, 6th wettest all-time I think. I had another .82" today, but some spots were over 3". Just been in the upper 60s all day. Very pleasant for June! 

[Hawkeye]

This morning's rain chance across Iowa was a bust.  The storms didn't even make it to Omaha.

The Dubuque area is getting hit pretty good this afternoon.  There are a lot of 1-2+" totals being reported.

[Black Hole]

HRRR and some other CAMs blowing up storms again tonight in east-central OK. We wiped all the instability out earlier but its bringing some elevated instability back into the area and immediately overturning it lol. We will see. 

[james1976]

Expecting a pretty good line of storms to develop and blow through here tomorrow. After that we go into a dry and comfortable stretch. 

[OKwx2k4]

On 6/2/2024 at 8:22 PM, Black Hole said:

What do you think will happen this summer for our area? 

Honestly, I think we finally get the west plains centered area of drought and the ridge I've looked for out west this season. I think we are going to have a difficult time getting large scale heat to setup over anywhere in the interior south to say ENE through maybe the Appalachian region. 

There's a lot of evidence supporting strong tropical intrusions later in the year and that has me concerned if I'm honest. Those threats look like they'll be confined to maybe TX/LA and the eastern seaboard. 

While maybe slightly overblown in my opinion, the record tropical forecasts have a lot of backing but are balanced against what appears go be a raging warm west Pacific. This may mean nothing, but in my mind it causes troughing or instability as far as the US as long as the temp profiles over the Bering Sea hold and we continue through right interactions with PDO/AO. Launching typhoons in that environment almost ensures that we won't see unbroken heat over the whole of N. America.

Those are my ramblings at first thought. This one has really started off unique. April set the all-time state tornadoes record@55 and May has set some good marks for rainfall, so we are in a bit of an uncharted territory for climo Niña in those areas. 

[Clinton]

I got grazed by some noisy thunderstorms this morning.  The 3km NAM brings a line of storms through tonight around midnight some of which maybe severe.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 81/53 there was no rainfall. The highest wind gust was 21 MPH out of the S. The sun was out 83% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is 76/55 the record high of 93 was set in 1925 the record low of 32 was set in 1945 that is also the record low for the month of June. The record warmest low of 72 was set in 1925. The most rainfall of 1.09” fell in 1911. Last year the H/L was 82/57.

The overnight low here in MBY was 67 there was no rainfall overnight the current temperature is 68 with cloudy skies.

[chescowxman]

Today should be the warmest day for the next week with temps reaching the mid 80's in most spots. Shower chances increase later tomorrow into Thursday morning. Sunny with slightly cooler than normal temps to close out the week.

Chester County records for today: High 101 degrees at Phoenixville (1925) / Low 39 degrees at Coatesville (1929) / Rain 1.91" at Devault (2003)

[Black Hole]

Quite the disagreement between CSU and SPC for today. CSU would argue for at least an enhanced across much of Oklahoma while SPC has marginal.