FWIW, the EPS weeklies hint at a CCKW/MJO crossing the Pacific mid-July which could portend a ridgy/+TNH cycle around that time (see hovmoller plot below). Though the theme this year (so far) has been to water these down upon approach, so I’m not confident a western-centric ridge would have much staying power, assuming it comes to fruition in the first place. Overall there is a lot of E-Hem/IO (RMM phases 1-3) forcing this year, so the more likely outcome is a gradual warming w/rt climatology in the west over the next 3 months or so, as the seasonal response to this base state evolves. Very common for August and/or September to finish warmer than average in NW-North America in such regimes, though July less so. But it is still not the same base state as 2021 or 2022 (both were more IPWP centered w/ enhanced off-equator convection east of the dateline). So that kind of flip to +TNH seems less likely this summer.

Of course. 2022 being the exception. That was a crazy evolution from all troughing to no troughing. That won't be happening this year.

Troughs happen up there in July/August too. Climatology warms, but the frequency of troughs doesn’t necessarily change with respect said climatology. It’s just that the result gets warmer.

00Z EPS looks fairly pleasant to me... but there will almost certainly be another significant troughing period during the last weekend of June.

Interesting how you jump into winter mode after early June. You were so consistently complaining about gloom in April and May but now that we are solidly in early winter 2024-25 you don't care if it's gloomy forever as long as it's cold. And you expect everyone to follow right along with you of course. You might have a few months to wait though. My guess is our real summer is going to be July into early October this year. It will come. Side note... these troughs come staggered in June into early July in this type of year. It's no surprise that it will go until just after the 4th. You know how it works. At least we are getting some nice breaks in between.