There is a Winter Storm Warning for the first two counties near Lake Michigan. Here in my yard I had 2” of new snow overnight and there is now 6.5” on the ground here. At 6AM the temperature is 17 with cloudy skies. Tonight and Monday morning do not look like good times to be on the roads. KEY MESSAGES SNOW, BLOWING SNOW, AND WHITEOUTS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MULTIPLE SNOW EVENTS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE WEEK A HAZARDOUS TRAVEL PERIOD SETS UP LATER THIS EVENING AND LASTS INTO MONDAY AS LAKE ENHANCED SNOW AND SOME SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW DEVELOPS PARTICULARLY NEAR AND WEST OF US 131. PRIOR TO THIS, WE STILL HAVE SOME LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS AND LOCALIZED ACCUMS TO DEAL WITH EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY FROM MUSKEGON TO THE NORTH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING REGARDING THE SETUP THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL AND LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OCCURS ACROSS LAKES SUPERIOR AND HURON. AS THE ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES, SW FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT DEVELOPS IN THE 21Z-00Z TIME FRAME THIS EVENING. NAM12 IS SHOWING STRONG OMEGAS IN THE DGZ FROM BIV TO GRR AND MKG AND POINTS NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE SW FLOW SHIFTS WESTERLY 03Z-09Z AND THEN WNW TO NW AFTER THAT. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT BANDS TO ORIENT THEMSELVES ACCORDINGLY. THE WORST TRAVEL CONDITIONS LOOK TO OCCUR FROM VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE AND SURFACE GUSTS REACH 30-40 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. THIS OCCURS WITH FAIRLY PROLIFIC LAKE EFFECT SNOW COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z WPC GUIDANCE GIVES AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF US 131 0.25"-0.50" THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH SNOW RATIOS OF 17:1 TO 20:1. THIS WILL YIELD 4"-8" OF SNOW DURING THE BULK OF THE EVENT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. COMBINE THIS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE PROBLEMATIC. PARTICULARLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG N/S ROADS LIKE US 31 AND US 131 WHERE WHITEOUTS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES WITH POTENTIALLY DISORIENTING TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH LOSS OF VISIBILITY. 00Z HREF GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A 50% PROBABILITY FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF US 131. WHILE THIS CERTAINLY COULD BE TRUE AT TIMES IN OPEN AREAS, WE HISTORICALLY HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING TRUE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SOLELY FROM A LAKE EFFECT EVENT. AS SUCH, WE ARE NOT CONSIDERING A BLIZZARD WARNING AT THIS POINT BUT WILL GO AHEAD WITH AN UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE EXISTING WATCH AREA PLUS SOME ADDITIONAL COUNTIES BASED ON A COMBINATION OF ACCUMULATING SNOW, STRONG WINDS WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FURTHER INLAND AS AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWER BUT TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL STILL OCCUR. FURTHER EASTWARD EXPANSION OF HEADLINES MAY OCCUR WITH FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES. Detailed Forecast Today Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 21. Southwest wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Tonight Snow showers. Low around 14. South southwest wind around 8 mph becoming west after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around 3 inches. M.L.King Day Snow showers. Patchy blowing snow after 10am. Temperature falling to around 11 by 5pm. Wind chill values as low as -6. Blustery, with a west wind 16 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around 2 inches. Monday Night Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 7. Wind chill values as low as -5. West wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Tuesday Snow showers likely, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 17. West wind 8 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Tuesday Night Snow showers likely, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Wednesday Snow showers. High near 29. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Wednesday Night Snow showers likely, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14. Thursday Snow showers likely, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 18. Thursday Night A chance of snow showers after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11. Friday A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 24. Friday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 8. Saturday A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 14. The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 32/14 the was 0.06” of precipitation and 1.1” of snowfall there was a reported 3” of snow on the ground. For today the average H/L is 31/18 the record high of 60 was in 1996 the coldest high of 0 was in 1994 the record low of -15 was in 1994 the warmest low of 46 was in 1973 the wettest was 1.20” in 1949 there was 1.2” of snowfall that day. The most snowfall of 8.0” was in 1960 and the most on the ground was 23” in 1979. Some weather history for January 18th 1987 A storm in the south central U.S. blanketed Oklahoma City with eight inches of snow, their highest total since 1948. Snowfall totals in Oklahoma ranged up to 13 inches at Gage, with drifts five feet high. Roof collapses across the state resulted in seven million dollars damage. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) and in 1989 While fair and mild weather prevailed across the forty-eight states, bitter cold gripped Alaska. The high temperature for the day at Fairbanks was 30 degrees below zero. Thunderstorms along the western Gulf coast drenched parts of southwest Houston with more than four inches of rain. (National Weather Summary)

End of the 0z EPS

If we had a nickel…