Not sure how low the thermometer dipped down to this morning but when I went outside not long ago there was still some heavy frost around. B3CE0C61-5622-40D8-BE8A-A62B3D926E66.mov 10481CE4-3AC5-4D0E-A73C-06DFCDE2423C.mov

This is a good read re: western megadroughts: https://ocp.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/drought/medieval.shtml

We are off to a very cold start to May. The overnight low here in my yard and the current temperature is 29 with clear skies. If that was official it would be the coldest low in May since 2020. So far it has been warmer at the airport. The week ahead Monday looks to be the warmest day with highs maybe around 70, After that it will be cold with highs only in the 50’s and lows in the 30’s There is a chance of showers on Monday night and Tuesday. The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 46/36 (that 46 is the 3rd coldest high ever for May 1st at Grand Rapids) there was no rainfall the highest wind gust was 22MPH out of the N. There were no significant weather events. For today the average H/L is 65/45 the record high of 86 was in 1959 the coldest high of 38 was in 1940 the record low of 22 was in 1909 the warmest low of 65 was in 2021. The most rainfall of 0.96” was in 1962 and the most snowfall of 3” was in 1929. Some weather history for May 2nd 1983 Severe thunderstorms spawned twenty tornadoes across Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and New York State. The tornadoes caused five deaths. (The Weather Channel) Here in Michigan, An F3 tornado tore through Macomb County (Eastpointe/St. Clair Shores) just after noon, causing roughly 25 million in damage. 1990 Fourteen cities in Florida, Georgia and South Carolina reported record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the 90s. Tampa FL reported a record high of 97 degrees, and Fort Stewart GA was the hot spot in the nation with a reading of 100 degrees.

Yes because it’s reflective of a broad Z-circulation and a strengthened NPAC High, which directly teleconnects to enhanced Indo-West Pacific Convection (which requires a strong Walker Cell, and thus augmented equatorial trade winds). Simply put. Although there are a slew of other methods to hypothetically reconstruct ENSO, I find lower frequency off-equator sub-proxies tend to offer the most insight and the best consistency.